For the 40th consecutive year, I will not be going to the Toronto International Film Festival or Venice. But, that doesn’t mean I can’t get involved. As the unofficial kickoff to festival season, some of this year’s biggest Oscar players use TIFF and Venice as a launchpad for a campaign (or a DOA awards run).
We only have a few days to go until the festivals, so let’s take a look at the films that no one has seen and analyze their Oscar chances. While I’m at it, why don’t I make some wild predictions based solely on vibes!
Previously Premiered
All of a Sudden
Bitter Christmas
The Black Ball (La Bola Negra)
Clarissa
Fjord
Josephine
Hope
The Man I Love
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
I am certainly not counting all these films out of the Oscar race, but they premiered somewhere else (Sundance, Cannes, etc.)
Wild Horse Nine
dir. Martin McDonagh
After seven Oscar nominations for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and nine for The Banshees of Inisherin, director Martin McDonagh’s next film was bound to be the next anticipated Oscar ticket. But, this one gives me pause. I don’t have a great feeling for the awards chances of this film. Tonally, this doesn’t seem like anything the Academy has any time for. I even think I’ll like it, but I’m much more bullish on its award chances.
Best Guess: Critics like it but don’t love it. Steve Buscemi singled out and gets his first Supporting Actor nomination, but the film falters elsewhere
Being Heumann
dir. Sian Heder
Five years after CODA receiving the Best Picture statue, director Sian Heder finally gets another feature under her belt with a biopic on disability rights advocate Judith Heumann. The film follows Heumann (Ruth Madeley) and her advocacy for nationwide disability accommodations, with Mark Ruffalo as the politician in the way. It might seem a bit saccharine on paper, but I think Heder will make it work with critics and audiences alike.
Best Guess: Good to great critic’s notices, singling out Madeley and Ruffalo. Wins the People’s Choice at TIFF. Best Picture, Actress, and Supporting Actor follows. Heder probably never sniffs a Director nomination.
The Debut
dir. Jesse Eisenberg
Director Jesse Eisenberg surprised everyone with A Real Pain, earning both a Screenplay nomination and a Supporting Actor statue for Kieran Culkin. For his third directorial effort, he looks to return Julianne Moore to the Oscar spotlight, who has five nominations, but hasn’t had once since her 2014 win for Still Alice. Moore stars as a shy woman who loses herself in a role of a community theater musical, led by an enigmatic director played by Paul Giamatti. It sounds like a perfect mix of everyone’s talents.
Best Guess: Eisenberg builds on the momentum and Moore becomes the frontrunner to win her second statue. Giamatti is similarly pushed towards winning, but Eisenberg misses Best Picture again, only to settle for another Screenplay nomination.
Ink
dir. Danny Boyle
Despite having a Best Director statue to his name, Danny Boyle has had a tumultuous career with awards bodies. Both Slumdog Millionaire and 127 Hours earned Best Picture nominations (with the former winning), but outside of a pair of acting nominations for Steve Jobs in 2015, that’s about it. He looks to rebound in a big way with the stage adaptation of Rupert Murdoch’s rise to prominence. Jack O’Connell will star as the editor of The Sun, which Murdoch buys, while Claire Foy plays a reporter in the mix. Look out especially for Guy Pearce as Murdoch. The Academy loves their villains.
Best Guess: Critics call it a return to form for Boyle, giving the film a fighting chance for the last few Best Picture slots. Pearce is anointed as a potential winner, while Claire Foy and Jack O’Connell make some precursor noise, but miss the nomination. Some technical nominations come the film’s way too. People’s Choice runner-up.
A Long Winter
dir. Andrew Haigh
Andrew Haigh has a great filmography, but is pretty limited when it comes to awards attention. Only Charlotte Rampling’s 2015 Best Actress nomination for 45 Years has gotten anywhere. With this film, Fred Hechinger leads an ensemble that includes Kit O’Connor, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, and Caitriona Balfe. Will this be the film that launches Haigh into an upper echelon of acclaim and success?
Best Guess: Despite critics championing it, only Balfe and the Screenplay make any precursor noise. Balfe finally gets her overdue nomination after a Belfast snub, but Haigh misses the screenplay category again.
Elsinore
dir. Simon Stone
Speaking of All of Us Strangers, Andrew Scott looks to finally make an awards impact with his portrayal of actor Ian Charleson as he prepares for the National Theater role of Hamlet, while dying from AIDS. Scott seems acutely suited to the role, which seems as juicy as you can imagine. Olivia Colman also makes an appearance as Charleson’s doctor.
Best Guess: Everyone goes bananas for Scott’s lead performance, propelling him firmly into the Best Actor race. He manages nominations everywhere, including an Oscar, but comes up short on the big night. His nomination is the film’s sole recognition.
Prima Facie
dir. Susannna White
All the Wicked backlash makes everyone forget how talented a performer Cynthia Erivo can be. Here is the chance for her to remind you. Based on Suzie Miller’s stage play, the film follows a British defense barrister who specializes in defending men accused of sexual assault, who is then assaulted herself. It’s a prime role for anyone, and comes on the heels of Jodie Comer winning just about every stage award possible for the play.
Best Guess: Erivo blows the doors off and stays in contention all year long. She manages a Best Actress nomination while the film never gets close to anything else. It joins Elsinore as a lone-acting nominee
I Play Rocky
dir. Peter Farrelly
Forget the musical biopic with all the music, how about the movie biopic with all those characters you know? Anthony Ippolito takes on the role of Sylvester Stallone as he attempts to get Rocky made in 1986. Despite making three films in between, Peter Farrelly is still remembered for the Oscar success of Green Book, so it would be tough to count this film out.
Best Guess: Very mixed critics reviews don’t matter because the film makes a ton of money and gets a few Golden Globe nominations. The Oscars give it some technical nominations like Makeup and Hairstyling, but that’s the limit. Another People’s Choice runner-up.
Misty Green
dir. Chris Rock
Chris Rock isn’t exactly known for his directing prowess, though Rosalind Eleazar gets quite a shine in the lead role surrounded by quite the supporting cast of Adam Driver, Anna Kendrick, Daniel Kaluuya, and Rock himself. Eleazar plays a fading actress trying to stage a comeback.
Best Guess: The biggest dud of the festival season. Rock’s film can’t land between the drama and the comedy, despite some nice reviews for Eleazar. It gets sold to a small distributor and doesn’t do much commercially either.
Make sure to bookmark this in two weeks so you can make fun of my terrible guesses. Enjoy the festival season!
