Anora made history by becoming one of the lowest-budget films to win the coveted Best Picture award at the 2025 Oscars. Made for $6 million, the film did wonders for indie filmmaking, putting it back on the map and paving the way for smaller budgets to deliver massive returns; films like Obsession further prove that audiences want to see interesting films regardless of the money put into making them. It wasn’t just how Anora was made that made it so special, but the story it told, too: a gritty, at-times slapstick Cinderella story about a New York stripper who marries the son of a Russian oligarch, only to find out the world is more messed up than she imagined. Mikey Madison starred as Anora, delivering a deeply heartbreaking performance as a girl who had the world and tried so hard to hold on to the life she deserved, only to fall flat every step of the way. At only 25, Madison became one of the youngest Best Actress Oscar winners in history, cementing her place in the history books.
Over the almost 99 years of Academy Awards, 33 women have both a nomination and a win in the Best Actress category, with 28 earning a nomination after their first win. Narrow that list to actresses who have won multiple Oscars in this category, and the number drops to 15; narrow it further to actresses who were nominated for their first role after their win, and the number drops to just one. That one person is Luise Rainer, who won in 1937 for The Great Ziegfeldand then won again in 1938 for The Good Earth. Winning an Oscar is already hard enough; just ask Glenn Close, but winning an Oscar and then following it up with at least another nomination right after is a feat that, frankly, never happens.
Following her win, Madison was able to be more picky with her choice of projects, and when a quasi-sequel to The Social Network – not just one of the most well-regarded and impactful movies of the century, but maybe of all time – that was written and directed by the same person who put pen to paper 16 years ago blipped on her radar, it almost felt like a no-brainer. The film I am referring to is The Social Reckoning, in which Madison plays Facebook engineer and whistleblower Frances Haugen. She plays a role that asks her to do many different things than she did as Ani in Anora. Writer/director Aaron Sorkin is a dialogue master, creating scenes that let the words do as much, or more, than the performance. As Ani, Madison was asked to be physical, using her body to speak as much as her words, whereas The Social Reckoning will force her to drive home dialogue-heavy scenes and depict real-life events. As an Oscar-winning actress, it wouldn’t shock me if she executed her scenes flawlessly; however, will that be enough for voters to bring her back after giving her the win?
Being a former winner is one hurdle; the film’s middling reviews are another. As of writing this, The Social Reckoning has a 57% on Rotten Tomatoes, a score that has only lowered since its premiere. Low scores can still earn nominations; Hillbilly Elegy has a 24%, and Glenn Close was still nominated, but they indicate that a film might not be as well-awarded as people thought. While The Social Reckoning’s score falls in the middle, Madison is one of the highlights. Sorkin films have been able to overlook muddling ratings in favor of strong performances – Being the Ricardos got three acting nominations with a 68% – now the question is whether Madison’s performance is enough to overlook some of the factors playing against it.
At this point, my answer is no. This isn’t to say a nomination is out of the question, but the category’s strength makes it hard for me to find a spot in the final five. First up: Julianne Moore for The Debut. Moore is a beloved actress with 5 Oscar nominations, including a win, but she hasn’t been nominated since her 2015 win for Still Alice. Moore pairs with Jesse Eisenberg, who previously willed Kieran Culkin to an Oscar win for A Real Pain, and stars as a housewife who finds herself after being cast in a bit part at a small community theater. She stars opposite Paul Giammati, who is seeking a nomination and his first win, and has received a large share of the overwhelmingly positive reviews so far. Olivia Wilde isn’t just aiming for a Best Director nomination for her hit film The Invite; she’s also eyeing a Best Actress nod.
Two-time Oscar nominee Ryusuke Hamaguchi is back in the awards conversation with his latest film, All of a Sudden,and Virginie Efira is right there with him. Efira already has a win for Best Actress at this year’s Cannes Film Festival. While that win might not be the most compelling case for an Oscar nomination – the winner of this award has only gone on to be Oscar-nominated 4 times over the last 26 years, including twice in one year for Emilia Perez – she still has a win under her belt and remains well in the conversation. Renate Reinsve was just nominated for her role in Sentimental Value, and she looks to follow up that nomination with another for Fjord, the Palme d’Or winner. The Palme d’Or winner has received at least one Oscar nomination each of the last four years and preceded Best Picture nominations in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Fjord is well positioned to earn multiple nominations across the board, including in acting, where both Reinsve and co-star Sebastian Stan look like real threats.
Then you have the biggest wildcard of the bunch, Inde Navarrette. Navarrette burst onto the scene this year in the hit indie horror film Obsession, and her committed, horrifying, and deeply sad performance could earn her an Oscar nomination. We saw last year, when Amy Madigan won Best Supporting Actress for Weapons, that if a performance is good enough, nominations and wins can follow, even in a horror film. However, it is important to note that Madigan was already a well-established actress who earned her first nomination in 1986 for Twice in a Lifetime, and Navarrette’s best-known work before Obsession was playing a side character in CW’s Superman & Lois; nevertheless, like Madigan’s Aunt Gladys, Navarrette’s Nikki has placed herself in horror movie lore and has already become a character in Universal’s Halloween Horror Nights. A marketable character is important for the Academy to take horror seriously, and both she (she has already landed major roles, including Rogue in the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s X-Men) and her character have been among the most marketable figures this year.
So while Madison has a shot, and it’s almost impossible to count out a filmmaker as beloved as Aaron Sorkin, she’s currently on the outside looking in unless The Social Reckoning performs better than anticipated. Outside of the top five, you still have Sandra Hüller, who is having a massive year and could be in the race in this category for her performances in both Rose and Fatherland, as well as the Supporting category for Project Hail Mary. Sian Heder won Best Adapted Screenplay for CODA, a film that also won Best Picture, and she is back with Being Heumann, a film that could propel Ruth Madeley into the race as well. Emily Blunt is still a real possibility for her turn in Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day; while the hype died off quickly, the film is still highly reviewed, and Spielberg is a force to be reckoned with at the Academy Awards.
As of now, here is where I see the race:
Predicted Nominees:
- Julianne Moore (The Debut)
- Renate Reinsve (Fjord)
- Olivia Wilde (The Invite)
- Virginie Efira (All of a Sudden)
- Inde Navarrette (Obsession)
Next Up:
- Sandra Huller (Rose)
- Sandra Huller (Fatherland)
- Ruth Madeley (Being Heumann)
- Mikey Madison (The Social Reckoning)
- Emily Blunt (Disclosure Day)
