If you haven’t had a chance, listen to The Lone Acting Nominees podcast, hosted by Gordon McNulty, where Gordon and a guest discuss a film and performance where the acting nomination was the film’s sole Oscar notice. I’ve personally been a guest on eight episodes, while many of your other InSession Film favorites have appeared as well.
The podcast is nearing its conclusion after 250+ episodes, and it got me thinking about this year’s potential lone acting nominees. So let’s dive into the potential 2026 performers, from most likely to least likely, to be a lone acting nominee.
John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (Very Likely)
A film tailor-made for a lone acting nomination. Not only is the film decidedly small-scale, but Turturro has been receiving the only over-the-top notices. The film itself doesn’t seem to have the footprint to go anywhere with the Academy Turturro. This nomination would follow similar lone-acting nominees like Peter O’Toole for Venus, Richard Jenkins in The Visitor, and Robert Duvall in The Apostle. The only barrier would be the likelihood of Turturro’s nomination, which is by no means assured in a crowded Best Actor field.
Inde Navarrette, Obsession (Very Likely)
While the Oscars have been hesitant to honor horror performances in the past, lone acting nominee Amy Madigan showed the Academy’s shifting tastes with a Supporting Actress victory for Weapons last year. Navarette looks primed to repeat as a horror nominee in Best Actress, but will her film show up anywhere else? The small-budget indie might have been a runaway box-office and critical success, but Navarette seems like the only assured nomination. Best Picture and perhaps some technical nominations are possible, but Best Actress has a long history of lone acting nominations.
Andrew Scott, Elsinore (Very Likely)
Few films have fit more of the bill for a lone acting nomination than Elsinore. Scott is getting near-universal acclaim, while the film’s reception is a bit more muted. Scott has yet to receive Academy attention, but his performance as Scottish stage actor Ian Charleson checks many boxes for a nomination. The only threat to Scott’s lone acting nomination is co-star Olivia Colman, whose performance has been warmly received, but not as enthusiastically. Scott seems to be a shoo-in, while Colman is a long shot at best.
Robert Pattinson, Primetime (Likely)
Like Turturro and Scott, Pattinson stars in a film lauded more for the performance than the film itself. While the Primetime’s chances outside of acting are a long shot, my reason for pausing is the potential for a Merritt Wever piggyback nomination. Despite the ample praise for Pattinson, Wever’s performance has gotten its fair share of notice, especially from critics. If they grab on to Pattinson (yet to be nominated), it would make sense to bring two-time Emmy winner Wever along for the ride as well.
Andrew Garfield, Artificial (Moderate)
Garfield has been receiving some of the warmest notices of his career for his turn as the devilishly stupid Sam Altman in Luca Guadagnino’s Artificial. His official placement in the Supporting Actor category might help his Oscar chances, but what about the rest of the film? The notices have been warm, but not overtly enthusiastic. While no other cast members have stood out, the film’s reception could lead it toward a screenplay nomination or even loftier hopes of Best Picture. It’s 50-50 whether the film can rise above Garfield’s performance, but he might still end up as the sole recipient of any accolades.
Sandra Hüller, Rose (Moderate)
You will not count me among those who discount Hüller’s performance in Rose, but the film’s very nature is unlikely to translate into a single nomination. You have black-and-white cinematography (which the Academy loves), facial prosthetics (ditto), and a foreign language element. If Huller is acclaimed enough to earn a Best Actress nomination, it makes sense for one of those tech categories to follow suit. More likely, the film would get a Best International Feature nomination.
Guy Pearce, Ink (Unlikely)
Danny Boyle films tend to be all or nothing with the Academy. Either you get nominations everywhere like he did with Slumdog Millionaire and 127 Hours, or you strike out. As a Best Director winner, Boyle’s films haven’t exactly lit up the Oscars scoreboard. In fact, Boyle has directed only three acting nominations (Michael Fassbender and Kate Winslet for Jobs, and James Franco for 127 Hours). If Pearce were to make the lineup, that would signal greater enthusiasm for the film itself. It’s a period piece made with style and energy, which would normally signify technical nominations. Pearce might make it, but it probably won’t happen on its own.
Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (Unlikely)
Who knows what to make of the upcoming Mrs. Dalloway adaptation Clarissa from directors Arie and Chuko Esiri? While it may have received near-universal acclaim at Cannes and attracted Neon to distribute, what kind of awards reception will this film have? There is a world where the film’s precursor run explodes and leads to loftier awards hopes. But the film is too widely acclaimed as a whole for a performer like Okonedo, a former nominee and the greatest potential beneficiary of acclaim, to be the sole standout from the cast. This seems more like an “all or nothing” type film. I would venture Okonedo’s chances as a long shot, and even longer for the film as a whole.
Tom Cruise, Digger (Very Unlikely)
Rule number one for lone acting nominations: you have to be nominated. While Digger might be proving polarizing amongst critics, if there is enough enthusiasm to get Cruise to the finish line, then there must be somewhere else for the film to be nominated. If Cruise manages to get caught in guilds’ and critics’ notice, then Riz Ahmed, makeup and hairstyling, and production design are sure to follow suit. It makes very little sense to just single out Cruise for the awards with this kind of reaction to the film.
Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (Very Unlikely)
Without discounting Ippolito’s Oscar potential, this performance lacks the traditional markers of a lone acting nominee. If Ippolito makes it, that probably means a fair amount of critical lauding for his performance and the film itself. This film is sure to be a crowd-pleaser, so additional nominations like Makeup & Hairstyling, Screenplay, Production Design, and even Best Picture would most likely follow a Best Actor nomination. You never know with the Academy, but this feels like the least likely of the bunch.
