The Best Director category has always had such a fascinating set of films that get in the field. Some years we’ll get an obvious five that matches the DGA, and in other years we’ll see major upsets like Phantom Thread getting in over Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Even last year, people were surprised that Marty Supreme made it in the final five.
In this article, I’m going to be looking at potential directing contenders to keep an eye out for. There will definitely be some obvious contenders on there, but I also want to highlight some that I think aren’t quite out of the race yet. We do have a few more months left, so the field isn’t quite locked up yet, but you never know. With that said, let’s get started!
Christopher Nolan for The Odyssey
Coming off the heels of a huge awards sweep with Oppenheimer, Sir Christopher Nolan is back with The Odyssey. After garnering critical acclaim and making a killing at the box office, to the point where it’s currently the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time, I truly think he’s getting another directing nomination. Even though he’s missed a few times before, with Inception being one of them, I truly think Nolan is practically locked in the field.
Not only is he adapting the known Greek epic poem, but he’s brought such a different voice to it that stands on its own within this adaptation. Now that he’s gotten his due, I almost wonder if Nolan has joined the ranks of Steven Spielberg or Martin Scorsese, where he’ll likely get in the awards talk for whatever movie he does next. I would be shocked if Nolan missed this juggernaut of a film.
The big question will be: can Nolan win another Best Director Oscar? It’s a bit early to say, as I can see him having to battle the category out with another contender. Regardless, he’ll likely be a formidable contender who’ll draw a lot of passion from voters.
Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi for La Bola Negra
La Bola Negra premiered at the 79th Cannes Film Festival, where it won the duo a Best Director prize and got its U.S. distribution rights sold to Netflix. Ever since the film premiered at the event, it has made its way through the major film festivals, such as Telluride, TIFF, and BFI London. Not only has it garnered critical acclaim, but it’s also won a handful of audience prizes, including the People’s Choice Award at TIFF; the first time we’ve seen a non-English language film win the award since Where Do We Go Now? back in 2011.
This has made everyone think about whether this could go the whole nine yards and get major awards attention. Well, we know that Netflix will likely prioritize this as their main player, and in recent years they tend to do better with their international films, as opposed to their American-friendly films like Maestro or The Trial of the Chicago 7; both of which did score Best Picture nominations, but failed to capture an Oscar win. If anything, the fact that La Bola Negra keeps winning audience/festival prizes left and right makes me think this could score a victory in the Best Adapted Screenplay category. After all, we’ve seen plenty of writing winners be awarded festival prizes and have gone on to win the Oscar. Some films include American Fiction, Moonlight, Conclave, and Jojo Rabbit.
As for the duo’s chances of a directing nod, they’re looking pretty good. Sure, not every Netflix contender of theirs made the cut on Oscar nod morning, but the ones that do get in have a sense of passion for the filmmaking. So far, everyone who’s seen it has praised Los Javis’ direction, and could become our default international director spot we’ve been getting each year.
Martin McDonagh for Wild Horse Nine
Last year, Searchlight Pictures got shut out of the Academy Awards to the point where none of their major contenders landed a Best Picture nomination; a feat that hasn’t happened since 2016. This year, their lucky charm is likely to be Wild Horse Nine with Academy Award-winning filmmaker Martin McDonagh, back in the director’s chair once more. His previous films that were nominated for Best Picture include Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin. With that record, it’s looking likely that it’ll probably land another nomination for the filmmaker.
In terms of Best Director, I could see a path for him to miss. After all, he did miss for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and got nominated at all of the televised awards for his directing. However, he wasn’t a known name to the branch like he is now. In fact, he managed to slip into the field for The Banshees of Inisherin. I think Martin is likely going to come back for a directing nod. Should we see any signs of weakness for his chances, I would say look to either BAFTA or DGA nods. But for now, I think he’ll get in.
Cristian Mungiu for Fjord
Ever since it won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival, Fjord has put itself on the map as an awards player. In fact, not only has Neon won this prize seven times, but five of the six past winners managed to score some Oscar nominations. Below is a list of Neon’s Palme d’Or recipients and how they did at the Academy Awards:
| Year | Film | Oscar Nominations/Wins |
| 2019 | Parasite | Picture, International Film, Director, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design |
| 2021 | Titane | No Oscar Nominations |
| 2022 | Triangle of Sadness | Picture, Director, Original Screenplay |
| 2023 | Anatomy of a Fall | Picture, Director, Lead Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing |
| 2024 | Anora | Picture, Director, Lead Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing |
| 2025 | It Was Just an Accident | International Film, Original Screenplay |
While you could argue Fjord may not get in for a Best Picture or Director nod, every film on this list (except for one) managed to score a screenplay nomination; Titane is the only film to win the Palme d’Or but not get recognized by the Academy Awards. And while It Was Just an Accident missed getting in the top categories, let’s not forget that Neon had more on their plate last year with Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent. This year, they do have contenders to campaign, but I don’t know if they’ll be able to generate enough buzz and squeeze into the Best Picture or Director categories; one of which we’ll discuss later in the paper.
For now, I can see Cristian Mungiu getting in the field, as they do like nominating an arthouse, international filmmaker. You could argue La Bola Negra fits this criteria, but that’s more accessible to a general audience than Fjord. Another thing to keep in mind is that the branch isn’t afraid of nominating two non-English language films. They’ve done it before with Roma and Cold War. But again, anything is possible.
Jesse Eisenberg for The Debut
The Debut premiered at the 53rd Telluride Film Festival, and the buzz on the film has been through the roof. Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti are getting praise for their performances, and it’s looking like it could get itself nominated for Best Picture. My question for the film is this: can Jesse Eisenberg land a Best Director nomination?
Not only have we seen surprises show up in Best Director, but we’ve had a recent trend of A24 films knocking on our door and being allowed into the field. And not only that, but they tend to come from films the studio knows will likely get a Best Picture nomination:
| Year | A24 Films Nominated for Best Director |
| 2015 | Room |
| 2016 | Moonlight |
| 2017 | Lady Bird |
| 2020/21 | Minari |
| 2022 | Everything Everywhere All at Once |
| 2023 | The Zone of Interest |
| 2024 | The Brutalist |
| 2025 | Marty Supreme |
The only film to not qualify for a directing nod despite landing in the top category was Past Lives. Other than that, every other contender got in the field. This year, A24 has a lot on its plate; another contender I’ll discuss in the article that could land a Best Picture nod is The Invite. But I wonder if The Debut will get in for another reason.
Since 2000, every time we’ve seen a Lead Actress winner come from a Best Picture nominee, it usually came from one that has a Best Director nod; the only two times this didn’t occur were The Blind Side and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Right now, Julianne Moore is seen as our frontrunner for the acting category, and if there’s enough momentum that comes to that film, I wonder if Jesse can land a directing nod. I’m well aware that the branch has had a bias toward actors directing themselves, like how Bradley Cooper failed to score a nomination for his work on A Star Is Born and Maestro. However, I still wonder if the work Jesse does in this might be enough to overlook it.
Olivia Wilde for The Invite
The Invite became a more successful film for critics compared to her last film, Don’t Worry Darling. While that became a moderate success at the box office, it didn’t get the best reviews from critics and got mixed responses from audiences at best. Over four years later, Olivia Wilde returns to the big screen as a director to adapt the Spanish comedic film, Sentimental, with a screenplay by Rashida Jones and Academy Award-winning filmmaker Will McCormack.
Some pundits are predicting that Olivia Wilde will become another female filmmaker to get nominated for Best Director. If nothing else, she is directing a film that’s been getting a lot of attention since its Sundance premiere. Personally, I don’t know if Olivia can get in the field for a few reasons.
Lately, the directing branch has been known for nominating filmmakers who direct their own written material. Whether it’s an adaptation or an original idea, we’ve seen directors get in the field like Paul Thomas Anderson, Chloé Zhao, and even Josh Safdie. The only ones this decade to get in without a writing credit were veteran, auteur-driven filmmakers like Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things, Steven Spielberg for West Side Story, and David Fincher for Mank.
Not only does she face a similar issue Jesse may run into, but the branch also has a history of not nominating remakes. Granted, some have gotten nominated like West Side Story and True Grit, but there have been others that Oscar expert pundits thought could’ve made it in and yet didn’t; recent examples include Frankenstein and All Quiet on the Western Front. Another reason is that, for the most part, the branch has nominated mostly original screenplay contenders in director.
| Year | Number of Original Contenders |
| 2009 | Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds |
| 2010 | Black Swan, The Fighter, The King’s Speech |
| 2011 | The Artist, Midnight in Paris, The Tree of Life |
| 2012 | Amour |
| 2013 | American Hustle, Gravity, Nebraska |
| 2014 | Birdman Or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Foxcatcher |
| 2015 | Spotlight |
| 2016 | La La Land, Manchester by the Sea |
| 2017 | Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water |
| 2018 | Cold War, The Favourite, Roma, Vice |
| 2019 | 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite |
| 2020/21 | Another Round, Mank, Minari, Promising Young Woman |
| 2021 | Belfast, Licorice Pizza |
| 2022 | The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, TÁR, Triangle of Sadness |
| 2023 | Anatomy of a Fall |
| 2024 | Anora, The Brutalist, The Substance |
| 2025 | Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners |
Usually, the ones that are adapted screenplay contenders tend to get in the field when it’s more noticeable work. Not saying Olivia doesn’t have bad directing here, as she’s able to use the space pretty effectively. It’s just that the branch may not find this as flashy as La Bola Negra or The Odyssey. Would love to be proven wrong, but my gut right now is telling me she’ll likely miss out on a nomination.
Curry Barker for Obsession
Obsession took the world by storm at the box office and with audiences. Since its premiere at TIFF last year, the film’s distribution rights were bought by Focus Features to be put out this year and became the studio’s highest-grossing film of their catalog, making over $523 million worldwide. But it’s been in the public eye since its release, and it’s likely not going away.
Right now, I think Inde Navarrette can sneak into the Lead Actress field. Not only is she out there campaigning for the film, but what she does in the role is honestly incredible work. Now, the rest of the categories for Obsession will depend on how the industry responds to the film as a whole. I could even see a world where Focus Features wanted to put all their energy on this as opposed to Elsinore, which is winning audience awards, but there’s not that much passion for the film itself outside of Andrew Scott’s performance.
If anything, I wonder if Curry Barker can land a directing nod. While it isn’t in the same vein of directing as recent horror films like The Substance or Sinners, I do wonder if the ever-changing Academy might be willing to open up more to the genre as a whole. Granted, you’ll likely never see known IP franchises within horror get recognized by the voters, such as Scream or Saw. But it’s something to consider when a film like Obsession is this popular.
Maybe Curry could get a writing nomination in the Best Original Screenplay category as a consolation nod? Maybe the film itself might be seen as the next Gone Girl, where it’s first seen as a big player but only lands one acting nomination? We won’t know quite yet. All I’m saying is that we need to keep our eyes on this film, as it could sneak up on us when we’re not looking.
Ryūsuke Hamaguchi for All of a Sudden
Ryūsuke Hamaguchi is back in the awards season with his new film, All of a Sudden. Ever since it premiered at Cannes, the film has been touted as another player of sorts. Not only has Virginie Efira won a Best Actress prize at Cannes with Tao Okamoto, but she was also given a Screen Artistry Award at the Mill Valley Film Festival. On top of that, passion for the film has continued to spread since its premiere. Right now, I don’t have Ryūsuke in my predicted lineup for Best Director.
Not only am I seeing Neon push Fjord more, but based on the history of the Academy Awards, I just don’t know if Ryūsuke is going to get another directing nod. After all, only two international/non-English language filmmakers have gotten in the category more than once for a foreign-language film: Ingmar Bergman and Federico Fellini. We have seen directors like Ang Lee and Alejandro González Iñárritu come back for a second nomination. But not only were they a part of more palatable films, but they also were in English-language films.
I also feel that in recent years, the Academy has been more open to nominating new international filmmakers. Granted, Ryūsuke could come back into the field as he is a known director thanks to the nomination he got for Drive My Car. However, I have a feeling that either Neon would have to pivot their priorities from Fjord to All of a Sudden, or Ryūsuke would have to rely on another set of critics’ groups advocating for his film as they did for Drive My Car to get into the field.
Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Three
It wouldn’t be an awards season without another Timothée Chalamet-starring contender. This time, it’s the final chapter of the Dune trilogy with Dune: Part Three. Not only is this to be touted as a potentially satisfying conclusion to an already impressive set of films, but some pundits are predicting this to be the film that finally scores Denis Villeneuve his directing nomination. He’s been nominated before for his work on Arrival.
However, he’s not scored a directing nomination for his work on the first two installments. Denis did land a DGA nomination for Part One, but missed out at BAFTA, while Part Two was vice versa. Right now, I personally don’t think Part Three will be the one to get the visionary director an Oscar nod for his work. Not only is the field competitive to begin with, but these films have never been seen as anything more than another populist franchise. They do instill a lot of Denis’ style as a director, but they’ve never been taken seriously by voters outside of the technical achievements they’ve provided in the visual effects and sound categories.
Unless I see an overwhelming surge of industry voters going for Denis, I’m afraid he’s likely to miss again. And for anyone using the Return of the King argument, that was in a less competitive year where we didn’t have a bloodbath on who would win the directing category. This year, the race is pretty strong to the point where it’s likely to come down to two films.
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller for Project Hail Mary
Academy Award-winning filmmakers, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, team up with Ryan Gosling to bring us Project Hail Mary. Similar to Obsession, this film stormed the worldwide box office, making well over $685 million. Not only is it likely to be Amazon MGM Studios’ primary contender to campaign for the Oscars, but it’s likely to land more than a few below-the-line category nominations.
The film is another Andy Weir adaptation, with the first being The Martian. Not only was that a box-office success, but it also landed a Best Picture nomination alongside a handful of other nods that included Lead Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and several technical categories. However, similar to The Martian, I wonder if Phil and Chris will be overlooked by the directors’ branch. They could land a DGA nomination, but as we’ve seen, the Oscars usually don’t favor the populist, blockbuster films.
Conclusion
As I’ve said in the article, the Best Director category can provide some interesting curveballs, especially in the last decade. Not just in terms of nominees, but even in terms of winners. For me, I’m obviously going to be proud that we finally saw Paul Thomas Anderson get his due for One Battle After Another, and I’m dying to know who the next recipient will be.
Could Nolan provide another swing at the plate and get himself another home run? Or could Los Javis pull through as our next winner in the category? We’ll have to see where we are with the regional critics, and who the televised awards nominate. If anything, I’d keep an eye out for what the DGA nominates, as we could get a surprise or two showing up and could sneak into the Oscar race. Either way, it’s going to be a fun season!
Predicted Best Director Race (October 2026)
- Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi — La Bola Negra
- Christopher Nolan — The Odyssey
- Martin McDonagh — Wild Horse Nine
- Cristian Mungiu — Fjord
- Jesse Eisenberg — The Debut
Honorable Mentions:
- Curry Barker — Obsession
- Olivia Wilde — The Invite
- Ryūsuke Hamaguchi — All of a Sudden
- Denis Villeneuve — Dune: Part Three
- Phil Lord and Christopher Miller — Project Hail Mary
