Chasing the Gold: Does Big Box Office Equal Best Picture?

We’ve all heard the same complaints about the Oscars gravitating towards small-scale films no regular person has ever heard of. But, how accurate is that sentiment? I looked back at the last 56 years of Oscars history and box office receipts to find out what correlation there is between box office hits and Best Picture Oscar nominations.

Note: For the sake of clarity, I only went back as far as 1970. Box office numbers get less and less reliable as you go back further. Additionally, these box office numbers are accounting for worldwide grosses, not just domestic…kinda. They started factoring in worldwide gross in 1988. So before that, domestic only.

History

When it comes to box office and Best Picture, the 1970s had it all figured out. Every year in the ’70s had the top-grossing film of the year in the Best Picture lineup except 1978 (Grease was the top money-maker). Not only that, every single Oscar year featured two of the top ten grossing films. 1970 and 1971 are the notable years, each with four films each. In fact, 1970 featured the top four highest grossing films in the Best Picture lineup. Only Five Easy Pieces didn’t make the box office list.

Starting in 1970, the Oscars had at least one top ten grossing film in the Best Picture lineup all the way until 1984. From 1985, the same thing happened all the way until 2004. From 2004-08, there wasn’t a single Best Picture nominee that finished in the year-end top ten in box office. It still happens pretty frequently, even with the box office receipts shooting higher and higher. In the 56-year history of this research, it only happened 13 times where a high-grossing film didn’t make the BP category.

The top grossing film has been nominated for Best Picture 19 times in 56 years. The number two film has made it 14 times.

But what about the Best Picture winners?  It happens a lot.  25 times in 56 years, Oscars’ top prize went to a high-grosser.  When it comes to the top-grossing film of the year, Best Picture has only correlated six times.  Most recently in 2003 with The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.

Recent History

Coming out of COVID, the Oscars have been on a pretty good run of getting a few populists picks in the Best Picture lineup. 2022 featured the top two highest grossing films of the year with Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick. 1970, 1973, 1975, and 1982 also had their top two money makers make it in the lineup.

2023 was close, with top-earner Barbie joining third-place Oppenheimer on the Oscar list. 2024 had both Wicked (fifth) and Dune: Part Two (seventh) make the Best Picture lineup. The sole Best Picture/big box office film from 2025 was F1.

Looking at 2026

With these stats in mind, what films could make the lineup this year that may end up as the highest earners? There are some sure-fire candidates like The Odyssey, which is widely predicted and is the number two grossing film of 2026. Other candidates include Michael (fourth-highest grossing film) as a longshot populist nominee, and Project Hail Mary, which has a much better chance, but might fall out of the top ten by the end of the year (currently seventh).

Even if you feel the desire to include Obsession in your Best Picture predictions, that film will fall out of the top ten (currently tenth) with near-certainty. As far as films that have yet to release, only Dune: Part Three has the box office potential to make an impact critically and commercially.

I hope this puts your “Oscars don’t care about popular movies” argument to bed.

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