Well, this has certainly shaped out to be quite a fun category. Whilst many of the winners have seemed to be decided, there is no consensus of who is going to win Best Actress. With four of the contenders each winning one award and with pros and cons for every nominee, if you are predicting someone that is not Vanessa Kirby you might end up having the winner. On the category that might make or break your Oscar ballot, let’s look at each of the nominees.
The Nominees:
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – For months, people were rallying behind the narrative that Viola Davis would be only the second black actress to win Best Actress, and with a SAG win behind her belt that is certainly possible. However, I still find it hard to believe that not only will Best Actor and Best Actress be awarded to the same film, but it will be a film that is not even nominated for Best Picture.
Andra Day, The United States vs Billie Holiday – Whilst it was not clear how much of an impact her performance would make, it was the win at the Golden Globes that solidified her as a contender in this race. She, however, has failed to make another huge statement since, and with her nomination being the only one for her film, the chances of her winning seem to be slipping.
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman – If there is something going for Vanessa Kirby, it is that she made it into every single precursor (only one of two to do so this year). However, this race sadly seems to be done for her as she is the only nominee not to have won a major precursor. This is only hurt by the fact that she is the only nominee for her film and a tough watch at that.
Frances McDormand, Nomadland – On paper, McDormand seems like she has a lot going for her. She made every precursor like Kirby, she ended up winning at the BAFTAs, and her film is on the way to winning Best Picture as it has across the board. However, this is not a typical Best Actress winning role, and having only won her second award for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri in 2018, is there a hurry to reward her for a third time so soon?
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman – When it became clear that voting bodies were loving Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman, it seemed like Mulligan would pull through and become the frontrunner. Whilst she has Critics’ Choice to her name, a miss at SAG is huge to solidify that position. However, BAFTA clearly loved the film with an Outstanding British Film and Original Screenplay win and in a normal year where all members got to pick the nominees for Best Actress, I think Mulligan would have been an easy win. Plus, never doubt the power that performing on Saturday Night Live right before voting gives to a potential campaign.
Who Will Win?
Honestly, I don’t think anyone can say for certain that they know who will win. In the past week alone, I have changed my predictions a couple of times. On paper, it should be a battle between Viola Davis and Frances McDormand, yet I still think there is too much going against them to actually get them to the finish line. Yes, Mulligan only has the Critics’ Choice, but I really sense a passion for Promising Young Woman – and particularly for Mulligan’s performance. Whilst I am not confident, I think for my own sanity I will be predicting Mulligan and sticking with Mulligan until the end of the race.
Who Should Win?
I want to use this spot to highlight the performance that, for me, is the best out of anyone this entire year. Despite being the only person not to get a major precursor this season, Vanessa Kirby is the actress that should be walking away with the Oscar. Yes, the film is incredibly tough to watch, but it is such a vital performance and a story that needed to be told in the way that it was. Kirby gives such a heart-breaking performance that it is hard not to fall in love with her. Also, wouldn’t it be fantastic if all five of these incredible performances got to take home one accolade each, saving the best for last?
