On Sunday, March 2, one of Yura Borisov, Kieran Culkin, Edward Norton, Guy Pearce, or Jeremy Strong will be able to call themselves an Oscar winner. It’s an excellent crop of nominees, and any of them winning this award would be deserved; however, the race is pretty much over with Kieran Culkin sweeping the season. Culkin’s performance in A Real Pain has won the actor over 35 awards between critics and industry to this point, including major precursors such as the Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA), Screen Actors Guild (SAG), as well as the Indie Spirit and National Board of Review Award. He’s more than likely won where he’s been nominated, and I don’t think that will stop regarding the Oscar. His recent win at SAG practically closed up any possibility for an upset, which was still an option for Edward Norton and Yura Borisov until the pre-cursor sweep was finalized. If anyone were to pull a massive upset, it would likely be Borisov since Anora is a top-three competitor for Best Picture. There is also a case for Norton since he is a well-known actor who has yet to win, but truthfully, it would take a miracle for Culkin to lose the award.

While this means the win might not be as exhilarating as other categories, with multiple contenders battling it out, it is still an exciting achievement for Kieran Culkin. An actor who was thrown into the spotlight at 7 years old, playing the younger brother to his actual older brother Macaulay Culkin in Home Alone (1990). From the beginning of his career, he was relegated to side/character actor roles. For most of his career, that’s about all the work he could get, with his most significant role coming as Scott Pilgrim’s (Michael Cera) roommate in Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2010). It wasn’t until 2018, when Succession first aired on HBO, that Culkin was given a chance to shine as a performer, which he did from the first episode, stealing scenes throughout. Even so, he was overlooked for years until Season 4, when he won a Golden Globe and an Emmy for his performance as Roman Roy.

He is now getting the recognition he deserves, and his performance in A Real Pain is terrific and worthy of a win in this category. His character, Benji, is a firecracker full of emotions and not afraid to share his feelings. If his acceptance speeches are any indicator, he may also be this way himself. Being thrust into such a breakneck industry at a young age can be difficult for any person; it’s one of the reasons why most child actors don’t pan out in the industry later in life. However, in Culkin’s case, the slow grind has been met with confidence that has helped him in his career and A Real Pain. Benji is sometimes the best and worst person to be around, not because he is malicious in any way but because that confidence spills over into the character. He is not afraid to say how he feels, but he also seems grateful for the opportunities he is given. I am not sure how his Oscar speech will go, but I know it will be memorable for more reasons than one.

However, he is still just my second favorite of the nominees. I have been vocal about Yura Borisov’s performance in Anora because I think it is one of the more difficult ones I have seen recently. This isn’t because he is overly eccentric or gives physical performance; quite the opposite, he displays a level of subtlety that isn’t as common in film today (and is needed for a film that is as “loud” as Anora). You learn the character through small throwaway lines, and you feel for him because his actions and body language clearly show his care for Ani (Mikey Madison). It’s the kind of performance that I cling to immensely, and he would be my vote if I had one in this category.

Will Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Could Win: No One

Should Win: Yura Borisov, Anora

We’ve come to the end of the road. We are less than one week away from the 97th Academy Awards, and some tight races became even tighter after some chaos ensued at Sunday’s SAG Awards. The race for Best Sound has been quiet for the most part this year, with one film being the frontrunner solely due to there not being a major opponent. 

Since its release, Dune: Part Two has been my prediction, and there hasn’t been much reason to switch from that. This win should have been solidified by its victory at the Sound Editors’ Golden Reel Awards Sunday night. It took home the prize in the Feature Effects/Foley category, which most closely aligns with the Best Sound category at the Oscars. 

Despite this win, Dune’s frontrunner status in the category, and Part One’s dominance of technical categories a few years ago, I feel uneasy predicting it to win. It should be a shoo-in, but the overall chaos of this awards season is getting to me. Will there be chaos in this category as well? Perhaps I’m overthinking this, but we must look at Dune’s overall performance compared to its predecessor. 

Dune: Part Two maintained its level of craft, if not elevating things across the board, but only received four below-the-line nominations, compared to Part One’s nine nominations with six wins. Dune: Part Two flat-out underperformed at the Oscars this year, and it’s hard to imagine it having much support with only five total nominations. It’s time to consider alternatives to the thought that Dune will run away with this category. 

The two serious contenders vying for the prize have one commonality: mixing and editing in singing done on set. Wicked and A Complete Unknown contains four of the best vocal performances of the year, with their main stars all getting nominated in their respective acting categories. Ten total nominations for Wicked and eight for A Complete Unknown clearly indicate massive support for both films, with many considering the former to have overperformed on nomination morning. 

Between these two films, I found Wicked to be the more compelling challenger to Dune: Part Two. Not only was a lot of the singing we heard in the film recorded live on set but it was also mixed with extravagant instrumentation and score, not to mention the sounds of the fantasy elements found throughout the movie. A Complete Unknown’s sound work outside of the singing and more plain instrumentation is simply plainer than Wicked’s. The film also took home its respective award for music editing at the Golden Reel Awards, which showed support from the industry.

Final Prediction

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m going with Wicked. Dune: Part Two has underperformed in a lot of facets this season, and the support for Wicked indicates it is going to win a couple of awards that were thought unachievable two months ago. 

The supporting acting categories feel far more locked in than the lead categories ever do. Even in a year with many strong contenders, there is always one that takes the lead and stays there. This year, there’s no one coming close to the success that Zoë Saldaña is having in this category. Though, she still has some stiff competition.

The weakest performance in this category is Felicity Jones in The Brutalist. She has about two scenes where she commands our attention. One is the strange, unappealing, and discomfiting scene where she attempts to give a bit of sexual gratification to her beleaguered husband. The other is when she attempts to shame and humiliate her husband’s benefactor and is dragged away. That’s it. Otherwise, she’s very forgettable, and that’s a very bad thing in a three-and-a-half-hour movie.

The next weakest contender still poses a significant threat. Isabella Rossellini is Hollywood royalty who has finally earned her first Oscar nomination. She is the performance that is the truest essence of this category. Her character is seen but not heard for most of the film until her grand climax. The scene is the one in which her character stands up for all women who serve the Catholic Church. It’s powerful, commanding, and over very quickly, but it has large ramifications for the rest of the plot. Conclave hinges on the machinations and backroom political dealings, and this nomination feels like it’s the Academy’s way of saying, “Sorry we overlooked you for decades.”

Monica Barbaro is one of three actresses in this category who did her own singing. She was the only one who had to match the iconic voice and pitch of beloved folk singer Joan Baez, though. In A Complete Unknown, Barbaro is very good at reacting to the unpleasantness of Bob Dylan’s (Timothée Chalamet) misanthropy. She never gets a grand scene like the others, but she does consistently exude a heartbreaking beauty in her performance pieces and in those reaction shots.

It’s tough to see a co-lead be reduced to a supporting status, but here Ariana Grande is. She is a fiery, funny, and ferocious performer in Wicked. She steals scenes with a look, a gesture, and a perfectly placed note. Her character’s signature song, “Popular,” is so well executed by Grande that it will likely go down next to the original cast as a repeat listen for fans of the show. Yet, that scene-stealing, megaphone-wielding power overpowers rather than supports, and it is a tragedy that this performance couldn’t compete where it really belongs.

The same could be said of Zoë Saldaña’s part in Emilia Pérez. Her character is the fulcrum on which the action hinges. Yet, her character also supports the titular character’s transformational journey, so it’s a give-and-take with this type of category fraud. 

What’s not in doubt is that in spite of the unevenness of the film around her, Saldaña’s performance is great. She is engaging and has an incredible physical presence in the dreamlike dance sequences. Her movements have been honed by years of action and sci-fi movie choreography to give her dance style a combative but elegant form. She’s won every precursor award that matters, and it’s almost assured that Zoë Saldaña’s name will be read on Oscar night.

The art of editing is what makes movies, movies. An editor’s visual prowess is what holds the narrative together and creates a tapestry so our minds understand what’s happening before us. You shouldn’t see great editing until after the film is over. When you fully process all you’ve seen, you appreciate the craft and how each piece adds to the experience of the whole.

When there were only five Best Picture nominees, if a film wasn’t nominated in Film Editing, it was unlikely to win Best Picture. With the expanded field, if that axiom holds true, these editing nominees are also nominated for Best Picture and have the best chance at winning the award. As much as that thought makes fans of the other five Best Picture nominees squirm, a Film Editing nomination is a real indication of a film’s overall Oscar potential. Without the recognition of good editing, the film is not respected as a well-rounded movie. So, what will a potential voter be looking for in each of these films?

If it is technical prowess, then either Juliette Welfling for Emilia Pérez or Myron Kerstein for Wicked would get the most due consideration. Nothing challenges an editor like a movie musical. There are many takes of each sequence, and matching a certain cut with the voice on the soundtrack is complicated and unwieldy. Not to mention, the dance must be choreographed perfectly for the second time so that the dancers aren’t ahead or behind the song. It’s a tricky feat of alchemy.

If it is supporting a grand vision, then David Jansco for The Brutalist has the best shot. Jansco is editing in a way that shows the scale of his director’s epic vision. The cuts are sparse at times and quick in others, but never faster or slower, always just right. It’s a precise game, as The Brutalist is much longer than many of its competitors, but it has a rich story that demands length. Every cut Jansco makes is a story in and of itself.

If it is maintaining the delicate balance of humor and drama, then Sean Baker for Anora pulls off a perfectly balanced film. Baker is able to pivot so delicately that we laugh just as the tears begin to form, or we gasp just as a chuckle leaves our throats. Being the writer and director as well as the editor means he’s been able to guide his whole vision from start to finish. It shows in the editing that there is coherence to the entirety of the film, and even with rewrites, adlibs, and reshoots, he created something whole and cohesive in a way that stays with you.

If it is on pure visual storytelling, Nick Emerson for Conclave is the clear winner. There is something great about a perfectly placed insert, and Emerson crafts these small scenes with aplomb. Emerson drops clues and shows revelations better than anyone else on this list. Conclave is a mystery thriller that relies on dramatic tension to sell its plot. The cuts are quick yet calm. They create sequences that logically move the plot forward in order to keep us on our toes and keep our breath held until the next shocking reveal.

Any of these editors is worthy of the Oscar for their tremendous work. It’s any film’s game when the entire Academy, some of whom have likely never stepped foot inside an editing suite, gets to pick from the list. Though, Nick Emerson’s work on Conclave just happens to be the best of the bunch and it’s hard not to see his name being read on Oscar night.

Last summer, following the release of The Wild Robot, the Best Animated Feature category seemed locked up, but it quickly became a three-horse race between a Wild Robot, Wallace & Gromit, and a cat. It is not what I expected going into the season, but it has given some weight to a category that traditionally has been easy to predict. Over the past few weeks and months, it has become more convincing that we’re down to The Wild Robot, Flow, and Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, all of whom can take home the award on March 2nd.

However, this leaves Inside Out 2 and Memoir of a Snail on the outside, and there isn’t much of a path for them now. Neither film has made a real splash regarding the precursor nominations or wins. For Inside Out 2, it felt like a nomination was inevitable given Inside Out’s status as an Oscar winner and the fact it was the only Pixar film released last year; the studio is on an eight-year streak of earning a nomination in this category. Still, a win never seemed possible, especially after more animated films were released. Memoir of a Snail, on the other hand, should just be happy that they’re at the party and has to thank Moana 2 for being such a letdown that it opened a spot for them to get in. Even though director Adam Elliot is a former Oscar winner and Memoir of a Snail was beloved among critics, it seemed like it was fighting an uphill battle; one after one, films in front fell, and it could slot itself into the five. Still, it’s clear that even though they have made the list, there isn’t an actual path to it winning this award, which isn’t a discredit to the film in any way; there are just stronger contenders.

These stronger contenders are, as mentioned, The Wild Robot, Flow, and Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl. Starting with Vengeance Most Fowl, this film seemed like another “happy to be there” contender until the BAFTAs. The British went with one of their own in their Animated Feature and Children & Family Film categories, which wasn’t as surprising as some may think. It doesn’t help much to distinguish whether Flow or The Wild Robot will take home the Oscar, and while it still seems unlikely, a path has been opened for Vengeance Most Fowl to swoop in and steal the Oscar away from them both. It would be an unprecedented win, but the inventor and dog duo have been here before, as the previous Wallace & Gromit film in 2005 also won the Oscar for Best Animated Feature. I’m not predicting a repeat, but winning the BAFTA keeps them in the conversation.

This leaves The Wild Robot and Flow, both of whom I can see winning this award for various reasons. Regarding Flow, the Golden Globe, National Board of Review, and Annie Award (Independent) winner leads a campaign that consists of being “the small film that could,” which might be the exact reason it wins. This independent Latvian film has taken the country by storm as lines of up to 200 people waited to get a look at the Golden Globe that was on display. Its budget was almost $70 million less than that of The Wild Robot, and Latvia, as well as the world, has engaged with this movie, earning it over $20 million at the box office and making it the #1 movie on Max only a few days after its streaming release. The marketing is also doing a tremendous job at highlighting the A-List support for Flow. There have been trailers and posters highlighting reactions from well-known auteurs such as Benny Safdie, Wes Anderson, Barry Jenkins, and Guillermo del Toro, a previous Best Animated Feature Oscar winner.

However, what The Wild Robot has going for it is precisely what Flow is hanging its hat on: the fact that it’s not an indie film. No independent animated film has ever won the Oscar for Best Animated Feature. Flow’s budget of around $3 million is almost $30 million less than Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit and around $16 million less than Spirited Away, whose $19 million budget is the current lowest Oscar winner in this category. The Wild Robot is not only a DreamWorks film, a studio that won the very first Animated Feature Oscar with Shrek in 2002, but it’s the last entirely in-house DreamWorks film. Regarding resumes, there isn’t a stronger one in this category as this film won Animated Feature at the Producers Guild of America, the Critics Choice Awards, and the Annie for Feature (Flow was nominated in Independent instead of Feature). Filmmaker Chris Sanders is also on his fourth nomination and is a well-known name in the industry, and the fact of the matter is that people voting might believe it’s “his time” to win an Oscar. While Flow managed a surprise International Feature nomination, likely edging out BAFTA favorite Kneecap, The Wild Robot was able to secure an Original Score nomination for Kris Bowers and a surprise Best Sound nomination as well.

Everything is leaning The Wild Robot’s way and predicting it would be the safe and maybe correct opinion. However, the international branch of the Academy does have a prominent voice in deciding who wins, and Flow picking up a nomination in International Feature shows me that not only did this branch watch the movie, but they loved it enough to nominate it over other strong non-American films. The Wild Robot is a spectacle of visual animation, but the artistry and the storytelling of Flow has a chance to be just as, or even more, effective than that of The Wild Robot. A year after Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron upset favorite Across the Spider-Verse, I think a similar thing will happen with Flow’s more subdued and introspective approach ultimately taking home the Oscar. It’s an extremely tight race, and if The Wild Robot wins, it will be because the people behind the film earned it—it is still one of the best movies of 2024, period. However, the campaign team behind Flow has done an excellent job of highlighting the independent and international nature of the film. I think that will be enough to overtake The Wild Robot. If Flow does happen to win, which I think it should, it will hopefully open a pathway for more animation filmmakers across the globe to see they don’t have to have buckets of money and fancy gear to make something meaningful.

Will Win: Flow

Could Win: The Wild Robot

Should Win: Flow

It’s hard to imagine a better year for original films. Because of the writer’s and actor’s strikes in 2023, many tentpoles, blockbusters, and IP extravaganzas had to be put on hold. This shift in the slate for 2024 created a void that many great original films filled and succeeded in. Many original films also became frontrunners for various Oscar categories. Some of these would have been lost in the cacophony only to have emerged as unique nominees in this Oscar race. What other year could a sprawling epic about a fictional architect, a tightly sequenced timeline of a terrorist attack caught on film, a fairy tale of sex work and oligarchs, a buddy comedy about grief, and a body horror about the plight of an aging starlet coexist within the same category?

Best Original Screenplay is the category that gets to be more unconventional than the rest. The category gets to be far-reaching even when it sticks close to the Best Picture category. Three of this year’s five nominees are also Best Picture nominees. It shows the support that original films have been enjoying in this era of ten Best Picture nominees. Each one of them is worthy in its own way, but only one can win.

It’s hard to keep a film where the main characters exist mainly inside a control booth intriguing. The writing team of Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, and Alex David pulled off that feat with September 5. As producers and technical directors argue the ethics of filming a terrorist operation, there is a tremendous amount of tension. These characters may not be in the action, but we’re pulled into the anxiety, fear, triumph, and grief of every moment.

Many have said that they won’t see The Substance because of the horror and gore elements, but they have to know they’re missing out on a layered and complex portrait. Writer Coralie Fargeat has built an exceptional treatise on identity, aging, addiction, and sexism that, yes, is tremendously graphic but with a purpose. The Substance joins other fabulous women-centered horror films of the last ten years that bring feminist topics to the forefront of a historically exploitative genre.

Epic is a descriptor that barely scratches the surface of The Brutalist, written by Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold. Their script builds layers of history into a tale of the debilitating capitalist system on those who pursue a vision of creativity. Their male characters are so vivid and three-dimensional that they feel like they could have lengthy Wikipedia pages. The Brutalist is a fabulous character study that is also a realistic take on the concept of the American Dream. 

Anora feels so much tighter than Sean Baker’s other films because its script is far more of an entity. Baker is a filmmaker who favors spontaneity, but his script for Anora is very well-plotted and expertly woven. Sure, his actors were allowed to play with it, but the structure was far more sound than his previous outings. While it masquerades as a love story, Anora also hits the nail on the head of the transactional nature of love, and that one person always has the upper hand. 

Truly, the best script of the year is Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain. In spite of the marketing and the fact that Kieran Culkin is getting every award under the sun for his performance, the film is about a duo. It’s a buddy comedy that takes a detour toward necessary darkness. The script is witty and charming, yes, but Eisenberg also lets it breathe. There are stretches of silence and contemplation that are beautifully timed and expertly paired with the terrific character work.

Many scripts have been mentioned in terms of this category since the beginning of the season, and many have been nominated and won precursor awards. It’s true that Sean Baker triumphed at the Writers Guild Awards, but I predict Jesse Eisenberg will prevail on Oscar night. A Real Pain is a superbly mature outing on par with the adult comedies of James L. Brooks and Nora Ephron.

Oscar nominations are here, and now we wait until the March 2nd ceremony to see who will take home the awards. For Best Animated Feature, the race has come down to Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, and The Wild Robot. Of the five nominees, I don’t think there was a lousy pick among the group, as these films target all demographics and do exceptionally well, telling stories as emotionally potent as they are visually engrossing. 

A film that maybe should have been nominated but wasn’t was Transformers One, a movie that wasn’t just one of the most surprising animated films of the year but also one of the best. Like Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem of 2023, Transformers One took a worn-out property and invoked new life stylistically and told a story with genuine heart and depth dealing with issues like fake leaders who pose as god-like figures, body autonomy, and governments restricting one’s freedoms to claim control over the masses – all of which are pretty relevant today. It’s a blessing this film was made, but I wish it would have been given more love than it got on the awards circuit. 

Here are my rankings of this year’s Best Animated Feature nominees!

5. Inside Out 2

I caught up to Inside Out 2, and while the animation and voice work are just as great as the original, the story itself was lackluster. Inside Out evoked a significant bit of emotion and pathos for childhood difficulties, and Inside Out 2 attempted to hit the same notes for puberty but, truthfully, barely scratched the surface. It was an oversimplification of one of the most difficult times in anyone’s life – a transition no one can see coming and one that people spend their lives figuring out – and the film allowed Riley to find self-acceptance in the fact that she isn’t just a good person and instead a flawed one, all in a matter of three days. Maybe I’m being too harsh on this film; the message is genuinely good, but you must be judged tough when you’re a sequel to such a beloved film as the original is. It’s not bad and nowhere near Pixar or even 2024’s worst, as there are some great moments; it just lacked the earned emotion captured in the original. 

4. Memoir of a Snail

Having never seen Mary and Max or Oscar-winning Harvey Krumpet, this is my first time watching an Adam Elliot film; I was genuinely engrossed by the animation and the story he told. His script is the most substantial aspect of this film, as the characters, especially Sarah Snook’s Grace Pudel and Jackie Weaver’s Pinky, deliver heartbreaking monologue after monologue. Its structure reminded me a lot of 2007 Oscar nominee Persepolis in how the story was articulated to the audience, and the central theme of constantly moving forward like a snail was told in a difficult but beautifully poignant way. It’s not my favorite film of the nominees, but it’s one that I am happy received a nomination.

3. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

It’s baffling to think Vengeance Most Fowl is only the second Wallace & Gromit movie and the first in almost 20 years after 2005’s The Curse of the Were-Rabbit. However, its prominent creator and director, Nick Park, hasn’t lost a step as Vengeance Most Fowl is just as fun, energetic, whacky, and simple as ever. Wallace & Gromit, alongside spin-off Shaun the Sheep, excel in crafting a simple story that shines in entertainment. There is an element to the film that touches on the dangers of Artificial Intelligence, but, for the most part, Vengeance Most Fowl is about Wallace bumbling through life, Gromit cleaning up after him, and both coming together to stop the nefarious penguin Feathers McGraw. If you’re looking for something with more emotional depth, you’ll be disappointed, but if you’re looking for a fun time, which I was, you will enjoy this film.

2. The Wild Robot

There were few, if any, movies that made me cry more than The Wild Robot. DreamWorks needed a win on their plate, and with The Wild Robot, they picked up a massive one, telling a heartwarming tale of community and motherhood that can get surprisingly dark. The breathtaking animation seamlessly blends 3D and 2D scenes in colorful and emotional ways, and the story does enough to make you feel all these emotions without seeming like you were being manipulated or tricked into feeling such a way. The Oscar-nominated score from Kris Bowers helps build on the screen pageantry; even though this is not my favorite animated film of the year, it is the most complete regarding the visual beauty from start to finish. The voice work is also astounding, with the highlights coming from Lupita Nyong’o and Pedro Pascal. After first watching the movie, I was convinced it would be my favorite animated film of the year; in most years, it would be my favorite animated film of the year; however, my number one has slowly started to become one of my favorite films of all time.

1. Flow

This film is Flow, a masterpiece and my second favorite film of 2024 behind Anora (but the margin is thin). Flow’s beautiful score (by writer/director/producer/animator/composer Gints Zilbalodis) and breathtaking animation are some of the best I have seen from an animated film in years, but this film is magical because it’s one of a kind. Wordless with animation that looks similar to a video game cutscene, this film simply should not work to the extent it has; however, the exploration of survival, friendship, family, and loss, added in with Zilbalodis creating a visual spectacle to convey emotion through action rather than through dialogue leaves us with a movie that audiences resonate with because it is sure of itself every step of the way. Zilbalodis never panders to the audience; nothing in the film makes it easier to understand, providing an ambiguity that allows audiences to believe and feel what they want. It is a movie that is an experience and is so easy to watch; I have multiple times since its release on Max.