During the 2020s, the winners of the Best Animated Feature category have consistently been some of the most exciting of the entire Academy Awards. A category that the Disney/Pixar giant once dominated – so much so that it seemed as though the biggest competition for the mouse came within its own company – is now being fazed out and taken over by new and innovative filmmakers who are pushing the limits of storytelling and animation. The last three years we have seen an auteur director make a claymation retelling of Pinocchio that included fascism and death taking a well-known story and making it feel original, one of the greatest animation filmmakers of all time create a truly spellbinding and thematically deep portrayal of grief and acceptance, and a Latvian independent animator using a free software craft a beautiful and rich film free of dialogue about a group of animals struggling to survive during a post-apocalyptic flood all take home the Oscar for Best Animated Feature. The previous two winners, Flow and The Boy and the Heron, were both from non-American studios and achieved their wins without being a frontrunner for most of the season, beating out the perceived frontrunners from major American animation studios. In the short 23-year history of the Best Animated Feature category, only four films (Spirited Away, Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, The Boy and the Heron, and Flow) have won this award from studios outside of America.

While it might seem as though a non-American studio winning this award is rare — which it has been historically — the past two winners have come from non-American studios, with Flow being the first film to win Best Animated Feature and also be nominated for Best International Feature (a nomination few saw coming). While The Boy and the Heron’s win can be attributed to the name power of Miyazaki, Flow’s victory marked an actual change in the landscape of what films can and do win this award. The assumption is that not only are more people viewing animated movies, but that, as in other categories, the international branches of the Academy Awards are becoming more influential every year.

However, it wasn’t easy for the previous two Best Animated Feature winners, as, even though they were both considered one of the frontrunners, another film with a larger budget and from an American studio was the perceived winner for most of the season, these being Across the Spider-Verse and The Wild Robot, respectively. The catapult into Oscar winner happened late and somewhat surprisingly, which begs the question of what exactly is happening in this year’s race?

It’s evident to anyone who follows the Oscars or doesn’t that K-Pop Demon Hunters is the heavy favorite in the category. They aren’t just a heavy favorite, they’re as big as a goliath as you can be. Not only has the film become the most popular Netflix release in history, but it has also become a true global phenomenon, topping charts and stealing hearts worldwide. The fictional band HUNTR/X has made history as the first girl group since Destiny’s Child in 2001 to reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100. They are also the highest-charting K-pop band in US Spotify history, and their song “Golden” topped the Billboard Global 200 at #1.

Additionally, they have recently been nominated for five Grammy Awards, including Song of the Year. Meanwhile, their rival band, Saja Boys, has achieved recognition as the highest-charting K-pop boy band in US Spotify history. So, not only is the movie itself breaking records, but the music is as well, creating a symbiotic relationship unlike anything we have seen—not even Frozen’s “Let it Go” achieved this level of recognition. This film has managed to take the entire globe by storm, and it feels like it’s inevitable that it will win not just the Best Animated Feature Oscar, but potentially Best Original Song as well. This level of confidence is almost unprecedented over the past few years which leads me to my big question:

What if it doesn’t win?

As I said, it’s the heavy favorite and the clear-cut number one, but as we’ve seen in the past few years, the early favorite doesn’t always pan out. I’ll give it to Kpop Demon Hunters for this, while The Wild Robot was the early favorite, it wasn’t a worldwide phenomenon like we are seeing now, and even though Across the Spider-Verse may have been a strong frontrunner, it had to go against one of, if not the greatest, animated directors of all time. There’s also the international aspect, which I mentioned is becoming a bigger thing regarding this award, that, in a way, Kpop Demon Hunters clearly has going for it too. While it may not be an international production, it uses a non-American musical form. It has been embraced worldwide, so I don’t believe its status as a Sony Animation film distributed by Netflix will significantly diminish its appeal internationally. However, the fact that it is not an international production still makes me cautious for the moment. Especially now that the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) Awards ruled Kpop Demon Hunters ineligible after Netflix’s appeal. The BAFTAs are a strong indicator of which films are being highlighted outside of America, and the exclusion of Kpop Demon Hunters doesn’t kill its chances, especially since the BAFTA nomination comes after the Oscar nominations. But it doesn’t help that a large group of voters could overlook it.

However, the most significant deterrent that I can see for Kpop Demon Hunters is that it just doesn’t feel like a film that, based on recent history, is a winner in this category. When Guillermo del Toro gave his Oscar speech for Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, he said, “Animation is cinema. Animation is not a genre. Animation is ready to be taken to the next step.” While Kpop Demon Hunters obviously has popularity, its appeal feels more like Frozen: a relatively simple movie with some deep thematic messaging and fun songs, but ultimately more for kids than adults. I’m not insinuating that this film doesn’t appeal to adults as well, and this is also not me saying the past few winners of this category didn’t appeal to kids at all – while Flow may have lacked dialogue, it still was a colorful movie about animals – but in Kpop Demon Hunters case, it is more similar in tone and style to the Disney/Pixar movies that dominated the 2010s, and haven’t quite refound their footing. The animation is fun and aligns with the new animation style established by the Spider-Verse franchise. Still, in the past three seasons, the academy has opted for something different from traditional animation. Whether it be stop-motion puppets, anime, or made on a free website like Blender, none of these films have looked or felt like ones audiences are used to seeing or ones that they’re used to seeing win this award. The past two seasons, the non-traditional winner has overtaken a film that would have been seen as a more traditional winner in this category (Across the Spider-Verse and The Wild Robot, respectively). While Kpop Demon Hunters has a lot going for it, familiarity could ultimately play against it.

What else is there?

Something working in Kpop Demon Hunters’ favor is that this question looms extremely large. While there have been surprises and potential upsets in the previous two seasons, there was at least an understanding of what the spoiler could be. This year, it’s still up in the air.

The mouse is looking to get back into the race with Zootopia 2, a sequel to a film that won Best Animated Feature almost 10 years ago. The Fox/Rabbit duo is coming back, looking to not only reclaim the hearts of the people, reminding them that Disney is still here and active, but also to put the Disney name back into the awards race – something that hasn’t occurred since Encanto’s win in 2022 alongside Raya and the Last Dragon, which was nominated the same year. Disney has never gone more than three years without a nomination in this category, and this year will be the record-breaking fourth. However, Toy Story is the only franchise ever to have a sequel win this award (a feat accomplished twice with Toy Story 3 and Toy Story 4), and it looks unlikely that Zootopia 2 will have enough oomph to break the mold, especially in this day and age of the category. I predict it will be nominated to get Disney back on the board, but a win is improbable. Pixar, which Disney owns, might be in a worse place than its parent company this season. Pixar has had a more substantial showing at the awards, with films appearing yearly; however, its only chance this year is Elio, which got a decent 83% on Rotten Tomatoes but earned a pretty abysmal $35 million worldwide. There is a chance, with a good push, that it could find its way into the five, but it’s low unless other films fall out, and the chance of a win is far lower.

Saying Ne Zha 2 is one of the most intriguing contenders would be an understatement. The Chinese adult animated film has grossed an absurd $2.2 billion (yes, you read that correctly) against a near $80 million budget. It’s not only the first animated film to cross $2 billion at the worldwide box office, and not only the highest-grossing film of 2025; it’s also the fifth-highest-grossing movie of all time. It earned more money than The Avengers, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens, and came around $50 million short of sinking Titanic as well. However, what might be the most shocking aspect of it all is that the 2019 Ne Zha didn’t even cross $1 billion, and that was in pre-COVID times. This film is beloved by audiences overseas, and that love could be enough to secure an Oscar nomination.

There are a few factors that work against it in terms of a win. One factor is that, while the film broke box-office records, the majority of the money came from non-American markets. According to Box Office Mojo, both The Boy and the Heron and Flow’s American box office accounted for 15+% of their total Box Office gross; for Ne Zha 2, the number is at 1.1%. The film still managed a large $23 million in the States, greatly surpassing the amount that Flow made in its limited run, but came up far short of The Boy and the Heron. All this to say, while Ne Zha 2 is clearly loved, it is loved more so outside of America, even with A24 distributing it in the States. While this bodes well for a nomination, which I do think it will get, a win might be hard to come by unless the international passion for the film is too strong to overlook. There is also the fact that it is a sequel to a movie that didn’t earn any Oscar nominations, or even buzz, and as I mentioned before, sequels don’t perform well in this category. The animation style also resembles Disney/Pixar, and there’s just not enough originality to beat a film like Kpop Demon Hunters.

However, while working on this piece, the Academy announced that Ne Zha 2 is ineligible for Oscar consideration in this category. The reasoning for not being included on the longlist has not yet been disclosed, as the film did receive a qualifying run, seemingly making it eligible for this award. However, unless A24 successfully appeals, it looks as though Ne Zha 2 won’t get recognition from the Academy Awards. I am leaving the section in because everything still stands. Still, I am removing it from my predictions in favor of Elio, giving the Pixar film the opening it needs to pick up a nomination in this category.  

The company GKIDS, which served as the American distributor for The Boy and the Heron, acquired Little Amelie or the Character of the Rain. The French film is an adaptation of The Character of the Rain and tells the story of a girl named Amelie, born in a vegetative state, whose world is changed on her third birthday. GKIDS films have earned 13 nominations in this category, and their style and brand of animated filmmaking stand apart from the mold. Not to mention, it is a non-American production out of France. With the state of the race this year, and the way this category is going, Little Amelie should find a way into the top 5.

However, the most likely spoiler would be a different French film, Arco, distributed by Neon. French comic-book artist and now filmmaker Ugo Bienvenu’s film is about a 10-year-old boy who dons a rainbow jumpsuit and travels back in time from 2932 to 2075, where he meets a girl named Iris. French films have appeared in this category seven times, tying Japan for the most non-English nominations; however, while Japan has won this award twice, France is still looking for its first. Arco is the most likely spoiler for all the reasons I have referenced earlier. 

First off, the style of French animation seen in films like Persepolis and I Lost My Body has not yet been awarded, making this a film that feels new and continues to broaden the landscape of animated filmmaking. Story-wise, the film has been placed closer to Studio Ghibli, as it is a cute film that kids will enjoy watching, and adults can pull real depth and emotion from. Finally, not only is this an actual international film with a stellar dub cast of actors such as Will Ferrell, Flea, Natalie Portman, Andy Samberg, Mark Ruffalo, and America Ferrera, it is also produced by Natalie Portman, an Oscar winner who brings serious star power to the film both on and off screen. The inclusion of Little Amelie or the Character of the Rain is fascinating for the sole fact that both are French films, but it could also play into each other’s favor, as if people see one, they might see the other. If we were to see an upset, I would bet on Arco.

Also look out for Netflix’s In Your Dreams and Sony Pictures’ Japanese animated film Scarlet, two that could sneak into the Oscar five. It is unlikely that either will have a real shot at winning, but the fifth spot is up for grabs, and Elio could serve as a placeholder until more is figured out over the next few months.

Ultimately, we might just be in a year when the obvious choice is the right one. Kpop Demon Hunters could wind up sweeping the season, winning not only the Oscar for Best Animated Feature, but Best Original Song for “Golden.” It could be one of the most predictable wins of the season in a year that will assuredly be full of unpredictability, or it could be another surprise that few saw coming. Either way, it looks like it will add excitement to an already exciting season.

Current Prediction:

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Arco
3. Zootopia 2
4. Little Amelie or the Character of the Rain
5. Elio

Next Up:

6. In Your Dreams
7. Scarlet
8. A Magnificent Life
9. The Bad Guys 2
10. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants