Laika’s sixth film has officially dropped: Travis Knight’s Wildwood. Despite an overwhelmingly enthusiastic critical reception (99% on Rotten Tomatoes) and strong audience satisfaction (97%), the general public hasn’t been as keen to see it in theaters yet, with only a $12.2 million opening weekend.
Luckily for the film, awards bodies don’t rely solely on box office receipts. So, with that in mind, let’s handicap the Oscar chances of Laika Studios’ latest release.
Best Picture +750
It’s a bit ironic that Wildwood and You Can See Everything are releasing only a week apart. Both are trying to break into the Best Picture category, a group that has rarely, if ever, been awarded. While You Can See Everything is trying to be the first documentary in Best Picture, animation has a history with the category. Following Beauty and the Beast’s historic 1991 nomination, 2009’s Up and 2010’s Toy Story 3 both followed after the Best Picture expansion.
No stop-motion film has come anywhere close, but Wildwood has an uphill battle. Those three films were all major box-office successes. Even without discounting its critical success, the film would need a major groundswell of attention to get back into the Best Picture conversation. I wouldn’t put it any higher than around 15th on the list right now.
Best Adapted Screenplay +850
Screenplay has been a much more hospitable environment for animation. Nine previous animated films have landed a nomination, with a few caveats. Eight of the nine films were Pixar (Shrek was the other one); they all made a bunch of money, and Adapted Screenplay is a quagmire this year. There’s little room to make headway in that category against La Bola Negra, Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, All of a Sudden, and The Invite. That’s not even counting things like Being Heumann or Dune: Part Three. That category has very little room to breathe.
Best Animated Feature -1500
Now we are getting into the categories where Wildwood might be the frontrunner. Two big things going for the film in this category. First, every single Laika film has earned an Animated Feature nomination. And secondly, the animation branch has famously not cared about box office receipts when it comes to nominations. If there is a world where Wildwood misses in this category, it’s not one that we live in.
Best Original Score, Dario Marianelli +600
Marianelli is already well-established in the music branch with a win for 2007’s Atonement along with two other nominations since then. Few other categories are as set in their ways, with familiar names, as Original Score. While animated films have a long-established history of breaking through in Original Score, much like Adapted Screenplay, there just isn’t much room to break in. Higher-profile films will probably take up too much room to make an impact.
Best Original Song, “The Better Part of Bravery” +350
Best Original Song is one of the more unpredictable categories. A few top-heavy contenders might make a play for the statue, but the bottom half of the category could go to any film for any reason. You could talk me into this song making it into the nominations, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it missed the shortlist. I would have it in the 6-10 range right now, but things change quickly in this one.
Best Visual Effects +105
Outside of Animated Feature, this is the category the film can really hang its hat on. Both 1995’s The Nightmare Before Christmas and Laika’s 2016 Kubo and the Two Strings earned nominations for their stop-motion work. Why not have this get there as well? Well, the top four spots will most likely go to The Odyssey, Project Hail Mary, Dune: Part Three, and Godzilla Minus Zero. But that final spot is wide open for anyone else. I think it’s on the outside looking in for now, but some early attention could cement the spot.
