Awards season kicks off on Sunday, January 7 with the Golden Globe Awards, and here are my predictions to win in the top film categories
Best Motion Picture – Drama
This category comes down to Oppenheimer or Killers of the Flower Moon. Both films got into the Best Director and Best Screenplay categories, along with many acting categories. Although Killers of the Flower Moon has a chance, the runaway critical and box office hit of 2023 nominated in this category is Oppenheimer, and that’s the film that will win here.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Greta Gerwig’s Barbie received a lot of nominations on Golden Globes morning, and so it’s possible that film could win in the Comedy or Musical category. However, the likeliest winner here is Poor Things, which also received a ton of Golden Globe nominations across numerous categories, and which is the more awards-friendly film overall. Golden Globes voters have an opportunity to award Barbie in the newly created Cinematic and Box Office Achievement category, and so look for Poor Things to win in Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical.
Prediction: Poor Things
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
One of the biggest question marks of Golden Globes night is can Cillian Murphy win the trophy for Oppenheimer, when he’s up against Bradley Cooper for Maestro, who also received a Best Director nomination. The category Maestro will be strongest in this awards season is Best Actor for Cooper, and I do see a victory for him at the first major televised ceremony. Murphy has a shot here if Oppenheimer ends up winning a ton of trophies across the board, but I still see this as Cooper’s to lose.
Prediction: Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
This is one of the easiest categories to predict at the Golden Globes because, outside of a shocker victory for Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall, Lily Gladstone will be victorious for her performance in Killers of the Flower Moon. She has received the most critics’ prizes in Best Actress thus far, and with her closest competitor Emma Stone not in the category, anyone but Gladstone winning here would be a huge surprise.
Prediction: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
The biggest suspense here is if anyone can beat Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers. Despite The Holdovers missing nominations at the Golden Globes in both Best Screenplay and Best Director, the film is one of the most beloved of 2023 and is going to be a strong contender in the acting categories for the remainder of the season. The only person who could beat Giamatti is Jeffrey Wright for American Fiction, that film also up for Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical. A victory for Wright would be a great one, but I think this trophy’s going to Giamatti.
Prediction: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
This is a category in which we could see an upset. Although Emma Stone seems like the likeliest choice for her dazzling performance in Poor Things, my favorite performance of 2023, Golden Globe voters could also honor Margot Robbie for Barbie or Fantasia Barrino for The Color Purple. Although The Color Purple missed a crucial nomination for Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical, Barrino could be the upset here. And with all the nominations for Barbie, it seems like Robbie has a strong chance, too. However, I will stick with my guns and go with Stone.
Prediction: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
The Supporting Actor category is one of the most fascinating this season because it could go in a number of ways. Robert Downey Jr. could sweep the season for his performance in Oppenheimer. Ryan Gosling could also pull ahead for his turn in Barbie. Or Golden Globes voters could throw us for a loop and award Charles Melton for May December after he picked up some big critics’ prizes. Pretty much anything could happen in this particular category, but I feel a win coming for Downey Jr.
Prediction: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Like Best Supporting Actor, the Best Supporting Actress category could feasibly go to anyone nominated here. A wonderful surprise win, for example, would be Rosamund Pike for her delicious performance in Saltburn. I do think the winner comes down to Danielle Brooks for The Color Purple or Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers. These two contenders are pretty neck-and-neck at the moment, but because The Color Purple wasn’t recognized in the Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical category, Randolph gets the edge.
Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Best Director – Motion Picture
Outside of a shocker victory for Martin Scorsese, who Golden Globe voters have awarded many times before in this category, or Greta Gerwig, who could win based on the great enthusiasm Golden Globe voters have for her movie, Christopher Nolan appears to be the obvious choice to take this one. He’s never won a Golden Globe in his long and celebrated career, and this feels like a season where he may completely sweep the Best Director category at all the televised ceremonies.
Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
With Nolan likely winning the Best Director prize, Golden Globe voters will be able to go in another direction in the Screenplay category and reward a different film than Oppenheimer. Since Poor Things is probably winning Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical, Tony McNamara seems like the smartest prediction for that film’s screenplay. But since Celine Song also received a Best Director nomination for Past Lives, my favorite film of 2023, I’m going with Song for the win!
Prediction: Celine Song, Past Lives
