Wake Up Dead Man, the third “Knives Out Mystery” in the Benoit Blanc saga, will be premiering at the Toronto International Film Festival, and while the previous two films of this now trilogy (and potential franchise) weren’t able to light up the Oscars boards, there was one constant between them: Rian Johnson’s screenplay. Johnson was nominated for Best Original Screenplay for his work in Knives Out, which was his first Oscar nomination, and he followed that up with his second nomination, this time in the Best Adapted Screenplay category for Glass Onion. You would think that there is a spot already set aside for Johnson in this year’s Best Adapted Screenplay category, but how likely is it that a writer picks up a nomination for each film in a trilogy/franchise?
It’s a niche question that really doesn’t have an answer at this point. It’s something that has never happened; even the most successful trilogies at the Oscars have missed a screenplay nomination for one of them – The Godfather Part III failed to earn a screenplay nomination among its seven overall, and The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers earned six nominations, not one of them being in the screenplay category. In fact, there has never been a franchise to earn more than two screenplay nominations at the Oscars. For Rian Johnson to keep his streak alive, he would need to make history as a screenwriter, but let’s take a look at what he might be up against this season.
In my opinion, the favorite right now is Chloe Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell’s script for Hamnet, adapted from O’Farrell’s novel of the same name. The recent trailer suggests that this film will not only excel in this category, but also in many others, including picture, director, actress, supporting actor, and various design categories. Zhao was nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay for her work on the Best Picture-winning Nomadland, for which she also won for Best Director; however, Hamnet appears to be more emotional and on a much larger scale than her previous Oscar contender. Not to mention, including Shakespeare in any form or fashion appeals to writers. Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet remains the most widely taught work in high schools, and adaptations or full retellings of his works have been a staple of cinema since King John was adapted into a film in 1899. Since then, loose adaptations such as West Side Story (both the 1961 and 2021 versions) and more faithful adaptations like Hamlet (1948 and 1996) have performed well at the Oscars, with the 1961 West Side Story and the 1948 Hamlet both winning Best Picture. Unlike other Shakespeare adaptations, Hamnet won’t be one of his many popular works, but instead will tell the untold love story about The Bard and his wife, and the emotional toil the loss of their son took on them, which inspired arguably Shakespeare’s masterpiece, the ever-famous Hamlet. While this may sound similar to 1998’s romantic comedy Shakespeare in Love, which chronicled a love affair that inspired Romeo and Juliet, Hamnet seems to be far more dramatic and emotional than the previous Best Picture winner. The new angle and familiarity with the main subjects’ works could make this a film that appeals to a wide range of writers, both young and old.
Following Hamnet, there are many notable names and previous winners, as well as numerous unanswered questions. Paul Thomas Anderson looks to pick up his sixth screenplay nomination for One Battle After Another, which is loosely based on the 1990 novel, Vineland, by Thomas Pynchon. Anderson has been nominated for a total of eleven Oscars, including an Adapted Screenplay nomination for Inherent Vice (another adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s work), but has yet to win. The question then arises as to whether people want to give Anderson his flowers for such a historic career so far. Currently, I anticipate that One Battle After Another will be a player in many categories, but there is a question of how far this film will truly go. Will it continue the trend of PTA films performing well at the Oscars, or will this be a case where the screenplay nomination is for Anderson? It’s a real possibility, but an unlikely one, as I assume this film will be a major player this season for many awards, including here.
Yorgos Lanthimos is also back in the mix this season with Bugonia, his English remake of Save the Green Planet!. He isn’t working on the script (which isn’t surprising, given that he hasn’t worked on many of his scripts over the past few years), and instead, it will be Will Tracy, who worked on both Succession and wrote The Menu a few years ago. Initial thoughts suggest that this film will put Lanthimos back in the conversation for the first time since Poor Things, and it already appears to be a contender in categories such as Actor (Jesse Plemons), Actress (Emma Stone), Director, and numerous others. It really comes down to whether Bugonia will be more in line with awards-wise with Poor Things rather than Kinds of Kindness.
One of the most significant question marks is Guillermo del Toro’s adaptation of Mary Shelly’s Frankenstein. Del Toro has received two screenplay nominations in the past, for Pan’s Labyrinth and The Shape of Water, which he won, and was close to picking up a nomination for Pinocchio, for which he received a USC Scripter nomination. Netflix is positioning this film as a significant one for the service, as del Toro has been adamant about giving it a real theatrical run, which could be beneficial for the movie. As always with del Toro films, the design will be immaculate and will likely earn the film enough nominations to propel it into the Best Picture Ten, but will a screenplay nomination come with it? Frankenstein is considered not only one of the greatest stories written, but also one of the earliest science fiction novels. With Pinocchio, del Toro took liberties in adapting the beloved story. Still, Frankenstein seems to be a more traditional take, similar to Hamnet, that could appeal to writers across all spectrums.
Not only does Netflix have both Wake Up Dead Man and Frankenstein vying for this award, but Clint Blentley and recent Oscar nominee Greg Kwedar also collaborated on Train Dreams, based on the 2011 novel by Dennis Johnson. The film currently has a 97% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and performed well at Sundance, with an awards-friendly release date in late November. This film isn’t being projected in many places. Still, it is being heavily considered for the Adapted Screenplay category. It could provide genuine competition to Wake Up Dead Man if the Academy wants to move on from nominating these films. There is also Ballad of a Small Player from Edward Berger, released by Netflix, which I don’t think will be as strong a contender, but is definitely still a possibility for this nomination.
A Complete Unknown picked up a ton of nominations last year, including a surprising Screenplay and Director nomination for James Mangold. This year, Bob Dylan is traded for The Boss as Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere is this year’s major biopic. While biopics aren’t always immediately relegated to Adapted Screenplay, the Jeremy Allen White-led film is based on a book titled Deliver Me From Nowhere and is written by the writer-director of Crazy Heart. It’s hard to tell how Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere will ultimately perform, as recent history has shown an awards successful biopic is usually followed by a less successful one (think Bohemian Rhapsody to Rocketman). If the film is as successful as previous biopics, such as A Complete Unknown, then the script could accompany it, potentially pushing Rian Johnson out.
There is also the case of Wicked: For Good, which was a surprise hit at the Oscars last season and will now enter this season with high expectations. As we saw from the first movie, this will be a strong contender in the design categories, and with the incorporation of new songs, there is a possibility that Wicked: For Good surpasses the staggering ten nominations that Wicked received. One nomination Wicked didn’t get was in Adapted Screenplay, and that could be more of a chance this year with For Good expanding on the universe, incorporating new stories and, as mentioned, songs into the mix, as well. Ultimately, the big question will come down to whether this film is released too soon after the original Wicked. Last year, Dune: Part Two received five total nominations, which is one fewer than the number of awards Dune: Part One won at the Oscars in 2022, when it took home six. With those films, there was only a three-year difference between them, so we will soon find out if the quick turnaround is beneficial or detrimental to their awards success.
I would talk about No Other Choice from Park Chan-wook more on this list, but with the recent expulsion from the WGA (you can read more on it here), even if Park wasn’t scabbing as much as people assumed, and if he only joined the WGA to work on The Sympathizer explicitly, the idea of an expulsion might be enough to turn some people away from his upcoming film. There is still a chance that Park could break into this field, but he has never received love from the Academy before, and only time will tell if he can change the narrative surrounding him. Instead, I will mention The Life of Chuck from writer-director Mike Flanagan. Known more for his horror projects, Flanagan took on The Life of Chuck, based on short stories from Stephen King, and made a film that surprisingly won the People’s Choice Award at the 2024 Toronto International Film Festival. The People’s Choice Award is usually a strong indicator of a Best Picture nomination, but Neon decided to hold off on releasing the film until this past summer, where it did just okay. Still, Flanagan is a well-known name among the community, and it seems as though if this film were to get love in any category, Adapted Screenplay could be where it’s thrown a bone.
Every year, people argue that the Academy needs to change, but as we have seen over the past few years, the Academy has undergone significant changes. The new Academy breaks from tradition and nominates and awards more than just your typical Oscar-bait drama. So, while Rian Johnson picking up a third screenplay nomination for a single franchise would be something never before done at the Oscars, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities for the two-time nominee.
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hamnet
2. One Battle After Another
3. Bugonia
4. Wake Up Dead Man
5. Frankenstein
Next Up:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
7. Train Dreams
8. Wicked: For Good
9. Ballad of a Small Player10. The Life of Chuck
