Picking the winner for Best Animated Feature might not be too tricky, as there are usually one or two films ahead of the pack regarding this award, but predicting the films that will make the top five is another challenge, which is why there hasn’t been an update over the past few months… until now. Now that it’s November, many leading contenders have either come out or have their release date right around the corner to hit the family-heavy Thanksgiving and Christmas market. Below is where I, as of today, see the race for Best Animated Feature.

Ahead of the Pack?

The Wild Robot, Inside Out 2, and Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl are the only films I feel comfortable saying are in a comfortable position for a nomination as of now. The Wild Robot is as frontrunner as a frontrunner can be, earning a reasonably strong $233 million box office and scoring incredibly high in all the review sectors—98% (Rotten Tomatoes), 85 (Metacritic), 4.3 (Letterboxd). Not only did it perform well at the theater, but many awards pundits consider it a threat in other categories like Adapted Screenplay, Score, and Best Picture. As someone who’s been brutally burned over the past two years with Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio and Across the Spider-Verse underperforming in nominations, I won’t go as far as predicting The Wild Robot outside of Animated Feature. Still, the recognition is strong, and this film seems to have staying power across the board.

Releasing in June, Inside Out 2 has decisively claimed the title of the top-grossing film of 2024, and it’s clear this position is secure. With the closest contender, Deadpool &  Wolverine, trailing by a staggering $300 million, there’s no real threat on the horizon for a new box office champion for the remainder of the year. The only potential rival is Wicked, but its success remains uncertain due to its runtime and the caliber of films launching with it. It isn’t uncommon for an animated film to dominate the box office like this. But, box office domination doesn’t have a massive correlation with Oscars success; however, in the case of Inside Out 2, the box office and critical success mixed with the fact that it’s not only a sequel to an Animated Feature winner but also, surprisingly, the only Pixar film released the entire year, makes this inclusion feel like a given. Nevertheless, unless Inside Out 2 picks up momentum, it feels like this will be a film that is a lock for the final five but not a real contender to win. As I said, this could change; maybe it connected with more people than some of these other films, and perhaps the Pixar name and love for the original carry more weight than I anticipated. Still, at this moment, I think a nomination is both the ceiling and maybe even the floor for Inside Out 2.

I went back and forth with Vengeance Most Fowl being a film I felt comfortable predicting for a while because while the Academy has always seemed to love Aardman Animations (the studio has picked up 9 Oscar nominations with the most recent being in 2021 with A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon), do they still love Wallace & Gromit themselves? We haven’t seen the two since 2008, and this is only the second feature film involving them. Then, the first reviews and reactions came out, and my confidence only rose. As I’m writing this, Vengeance Most Fowl currently has a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score and an 82 on Metacritic, which will be released on Netflix, a studio that is becoming familiar with this category. The stop motion adds another level that the Academy has grown to love; I would be pretty shocked if Vengeance Most Fowl didn’t appear on nomination morning.

Close Behind?

So, with three of the spots already claimed, who will get the final two? The race begins to get complicated because The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, Moana 2, Flow, Memoir of a Snail, and Piece by Piece are all viable contenders for the final five. 

Moana 2 is a relatively safe starting point. Still, the questions surrounding the Moana property are vast, given that the live-action film was announced before the sequel and the speed at which Disney released this film—it was initially announced in February and will be released in November. It’s easy to say that Moana 2 is in for similar reasons to Inside Out 2, being that it is a Disney production and a sequel; however, the original Moana lost out to another Disney production, Zootopia, back in 2016. Plus, since winning for Encanto (2021), Disney has not had a film be nominated for Best Animated Feature. So, while Moana 2 might seem like an obvious choice for a slot, this is a year where it just might not be that simple, either.

Another film with massive question marks is The War of the Rohirrim. Anime-style animation, outside of Miyazaki, is virtually non-existent regarding Oscar nominations. There is a type of animated film the Academy likes that involves primarily a hand-drawn 2D or 3D style, and they have consistently gravitated towards those films in the past. However, although it’s been over twenty years since The Lord of the Rings trilogy took over the Oscars regarding wins and nominations, people still have a soft spot for these Middle-earth stories. The question now comes: will The War of the Rohirrim be embraced for taking on such a beloved series in a vastly new way, or will it be rejected for trying to continue something some people hold so dearly? We won’t fully know for a while as the film won’t release until December 13, but there’s a world where this film comes out of nowhere and wins this award, one where it is left off the list entirely, and almost everything in between. In my opinion, you won’t find a more significant wildcard for this specific category.

I really can’t believe I have to do this, but I think Piece by Piece, the Pharell Williams biopic told through Legos, including Lego versions of people like Kendrick Lamar, Jay-Z, Snoop Dogg, and Martin Luther King Jr., could wind up making it into the list of five. It’s a film that was positively reviewed, and even if the box office hasn’t been spectacular, it’s hard not to bring up things like nostalgia and who is all involved. My biggest hangup, outside of the pretty insane concept, is that The Lego Movie, which earned an Annie and Golden Globe Nom and a BAFTA, PGA, and Critics Choice Win, failed to earn an Oscar nomination in Best Animated Feature. This snub is even more surprising given that it did pick up a nomination for the song ‘Everything is Awesome’ performed by The Lonely Island. Pharell Williams’s title song, ‘Piece by Piece,’ could make a push for Oscars consideration itself. It is making an impact as it has been used for various ESPN programming. However, even if the song does break through, it still feels doubtful that this will all formulate into an Animated Feature nomination for this film. However, even if it is absurd, it is still a biopic, and the names attached are still relevant today. Some characters have never been more relevant, which could garner enough goodwill to land this film a nomination.

Then we have the international contenders of Flow (Latvia) and Memoir of a Snail (Australia). Flow follows a black cat who, after a devastating flood ruins their home, must team up with other species of animals and learn to exist. It seems as though through the trailers that it is going to be a dialogue-free film, having the animal noises be what is heard most throughout, but the early reviews have been that the visuals – which are so unique it takes watching the trailer to understand – are the emotional driving force of the film. We have seen animated films that take certain visual risks be rewarded at the Academy, and Flow could be next in line. 

On the other hand, Memoir of a Snail is almost the exact opposite of Flow. It is a stop-motion film by Oscar-winner Adam Elliot, and it is about a girl who recites her life to her pet snail. The emotional center here comes mainly from the dialogue and the vocal performances of Sarah Snook and Jacki Weaver. The sad and powerful score also helps, but many monologues discuss how and why we should move forward through life and, like a snail, never go over the same tracks, which are highly effective in being both the emotional and thematic heart of the film. However, while there is still a chance, there is the Vengeance Most Fowl of it all; will the Academy go for two stop-motion animated features? Nothing says they can’t, but Memoir of a Snail would have a much better shot in a different year.

I Guess There’s a Chance?

Unless there is a Robot Dreams situation where a movie comes out at the literal last second and powers its way to a nomination (although, could Flow be this year’s Robot Dreams?), I think the Oscar Five is some combination of the eight films mentioned above. The only other films I could see make a push for a nomination are Orion and the Dark, Spellbound, and Transformers: One.

Netflix released Orion and the Dark, and Charlie Kaufman is the screenwriter. That’s about all the film has going for it regarding real awards potential. That’s not to say it’s terrible by any means. It is a good movie; it just wasn’t memorable and was released far too early to have any staying power.

Spellbound is another Netflix film that is directed by one of the two directors of Shrek. There has to be something worth noting in that regard; however, what even is Spellbound? There doesn’t seem to be a massive push behind the film in any way, and there hasn’t been any indication if the film is even any good given that there have not been reactions and it doesn’t release until November 22. If it is, we could look at multiple nominations since it is also a musical. Still, it’s definitely on the outside looking in, and with Netflix pushing Vengeance Most Fowl as well, Spellbound will need some real magic.

Transformers One is the film in this section that makes this writer the saddest. I reviewed the film, and I was massively shocked not only by some of the film’s immaculate animation but also by the story’s depth and relevance. This one will end the year in my top 5 animated films of the year, and there is reason to believe Transformers One has a shot since there is support for the film, but similar to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem last year, it takes more than support to get into the final five.

That’s Not All Folks

It was announced around mid-October that The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie would be released theatrically in February 2025. Because of that announcement, I wrote the film off in terms of awards potential for the 2024 season. However, there is a plan to give it a qualifying run this season, and the first reviews have been overwhelmingly high. I’m including them on my list at 11, but there is a real possibility the first fully animated feature-length Looney Tunes movie could be a last-second surprise.

My Current Prediction:

I am going with The War of the Rohirrim and Moana 2 to round out my predicted five. However, look out for Flow to make a big push late in the race, likely knocking out Moana 2. As mentioned earlier, The Wild Robot is about as safe as possible in taking home this win. Still, if there is a competition, it will be between The Wild Robot, Vengeance Most Fowl, and The War of the Rohirrim, as I can see each film winning the Oscar. Here is my current prediction:

Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot
2. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
3. Inside Out 2
4. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
5. Moana 2

Next Up:

1. Flow
2. Piece by Piece
3. Memoir of a Snail
4. Transformers One
5. Spellbound
6. The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie

Few Oscarological tenets are as dogmatically observed as the correlation between Best Supporting Actress winners and musicals nominated for Best Picture. Most pundits currently expect Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) to carry forth a streak started by Catherine Zeta-Jones (Chicago) in 2002 and upheld in 2012 and 2021 by, respectively, Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables) and Ariana DeBose (West Side Story). Since her film did not compete for the academy’s top prize, Jennifer Hudson is an outlier—but that hardly matters, considering Dreamgirls received more nominations than any other 2006 release and would have certainly contended for Best Picture had the category been expanded three years earlier. 

After Jacques Audiard’s Cannes-winning crime thriller/rock opera became a perceived heavyweight this season, Saldaña shot to the top of pundits’ predictions and has comfortably remained there since September. Playing an attorney who manages the affairs of a cartel boss (Karla Sofía Gascón) seeking gender-affirming surgery, Saldaña reminds audiences of her considerable skill as both a singer and dancer. Expected to join her for a nomination are Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Saoirse Ronan (Blitz), and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys). But a gust of laudatory wind from the north, if you will, has blown Wicked into the race for Best Picture—and with it a viable Best Supporting Actress contender in Ariana Grande.

Though once common, instances of multiple musicals competing in the same above-the-line categories nowadays are nonexistent, making this year’s field a potentially unique one in the modern era. Can the winning streak withstand multiple supporting ladies from Picture-nominated musicals vying for the prize? Should Saldaña and Grande cancel each other out, Deadwyler, Jones, and Ronan appear best advantaged. The latter’s victory could boost Emilia Pérez’s chances in another category, where one of its stars will almost certainly square off against Ronan—Best Leading Actress. The four-time nominee, tipped to receive two acting nods this year, has gotten louder praise for her top-billed performance as a recovering alcoholic in The Outrun than she has for a smaller turn in Steve McQueen’s WWII drama, but a Supporting win would block the possibility of a Still Alice-style result in Leading and leave open a clear path for Karla Sofía Gascón to take the gold. 

There’s still a very good chance, of course, that Saldaña or Grande winds up the winner. Not unlike recent Oscar recipient Robert Downey Jr., Saldaña is a multi-tentpole veteran who’s being celebrated for displaying dormant or previously unseen talent; a pop star performing well in a musical, on the other hand, may not be appreciated as the same kind of flex. Nevertheless, Grande’s film won’t be as divisive as Emilia Pérez has been so far and, like Chicago, Les Mis, and West Side Story, is based on a beloved stage production. 

Though a vote split could, as earlier demonstrated, theoretically help Emilia Pérez (so long as the gain is Ronan’s), Grande might prove detrimental to the Netflix MVP’s nomination haul by simply cracking the lineup—even if Saldaña ultimately takes the Oscar. Right outside the projected Top 5, Selena Gomez is angling to occupy a slot alongside her Emilia Pérez co-star. Gomez has friends in high buildings, so to speak, but will two Disney-Channel-alum-turned-pop-stars manage to clinch nominations in the same year? The Only Murders in the Building Emmy nominee has garnered favorable notices (and is a quarter of this year’s Best Actress recipient at Cannes) for playing the title character’s scorned wife. Still,  the role is significantly smaller than Saldaña’s and doesn’t provide the sort of scene-stealing material that made “Banshee boys” Barry Keoghan and Brendan Gleeson a package deal two years ago. Her character also isn’t as integral to the film as Stephanie Hsu’s is to Everything Everywhere All at Once. If the academy falls for Emilia Pérez the way it did for EEAAO, Gomez is likely to partake in the spoils. However, if the movie gets as polarized a reception from voters as it has from critics and underperforms on the morning nominations are announced, she might be its most expendable bid. In a contest between the two, Grande’s co-lead performance enjoys an edge over Gomez’s coattail candidacy.

Wicked’s embargo has yet to lift, but early word indicates that the race for Best Supporting Actress is far from over. If Saldaña and Grande both snag nominations (and their films are recognized in Best Picture), will one of the two women prevail and preserve the Supporting Actress/BP-nominated-musical stat, or will Wicked’s insurgency split the vote and break the spell?

With the end of the 2024 fall festival season comes a much clearer look into the Best Director awards race. Some serious contenders have emerged, while other strong showings from the spring and summer have faded into the background. Let’s look at who still has an outside shot, who’s on the bubble, and who the strongest contenders are as we hurdle toward the year’s end. 

Dark Horse Candidates

Mike Leigh, Hard Truths

Mike Leigh’s latest offering features a reunion between the director and actress Marianne Jean-Baptiste as a mother navigating a difficult relationship with her husband and son. Most of the praise has come for Jean-Baptiste’s hilarious and devastating performance, but there’s always an outside chance that momentum could pick up for the beloved director. At 81 years old, Leigh has garnered seven Academy Award nominations, with two being for Best Director. This could be his last film, and with enough support, it could push him to a nomination. Given the lack of acclaim for anything outside Jean-Baptiste and the screenplay, it does seem like a stretch to put him anywhere near the top 10 contenders, but it’s worth noting his previous success with awards voters.

Luca Guadagnino, Challengers

Guadagnino’s first entry for 2024, Challengers, has come out ahead of his other feature Queer, which made its way through the festival circuit earlier this year. The latter is much more meditative and supernatural at times, making it a tougher sell to awards voters. Simply put, Queer is just a little too out there, even for this iteration of the Academy. Despite this, support for Guadagnino and his contributions to film in 2024 could be directed towards a nomination for Challengers, signaling more of an overarching appreciation for the director himself rather than either of the films on their own. There’s a lot to love about both of his features this year, and the range he shows throughout each of them is a testament to his skill and eye for extraordinary filmmaking. As of now, it seems more likely that Challengers could sneak into Best Picture or Best Original Screenplay with a very small chance that he could break through in Director. On its best day, Challengers would only get these three nominations, with Queer catching an acting nomination for Daniel Craig. I don’t quite see this happening but don’t be surprised to see his name called if other directors lose steam down the line.

Jon M. Chu, Wicked Part One

I know  it must be jarring to see this film with the “Part One” tag added on. Despite the marketing and runtime that is longer than the musical it’s based on (not including intermission)  Wicked is indeed a part one. Despite my skepticism of this adaptation, very early reports are indicating that it might actually be good. Like, really good. This is all anecdotal, of course, but if Chu and the team could pull off a critically successful adaptation of a beloved musical, Wicked just might come out of nowhere and crash the Oscars. We already know the box office support will be behind it, which could propel it to several nominations. Similar to some other films, Wicked’s best nomination package includes a Director nomination for Jon Chu. Imagine the coordination and vision required to make a spectacle like this happen. This is still not quite at the top of my predictions, but I firmly believe the path is there for Chu and several other folks involved in this production. 

On The Bubble

Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

MUBI’s box office darling, The Substance, keeps plugging along in theaters despite releasing two months ago, which feels like an eternity in today’s theatrical window. Working off of a $17.5 million budget, it has picked up over $50 million worldwide in its theatrical run. The Substance is big, loud, and bold, with a lot of attention being directed at Demi Moore and Coralie Fargeat. Regrettably, it does appear that Fargeat is our only hope of having a non-male director in the category this time around, but she does seem to be gaining some momentum. Fargeat is more than deserving of the recognition, and seeing multiple nominations for this film would be a welcome shake-up of what kinds of films typically get nominated by the Academy. Hopefully, MUBI can put together a strong campaign for Moore, Fargeat, and some of the technical awards like Makeup and Hairstyling or Costumes and break the mold of the classical “Oscar movie” in the process. 

Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

Greg Kwedar’s understated yet effective direction in Sing Sing is truly a work of art, and he is more than deserving of a spot in the nomination lineup this year. Unfortunately for him, A24’s rollout and campaign for the film as a whole has been elusive and confusing. Almost everyone who has seen Sing Sing loves it, but that number is definitely less than ideal. With the strategy thus far, Kwedar’s campaign is likely one of the first to fall off compared to the Best Picture and acting categories but is likely to have a strong push as we get closer to nomination day. A24 has  stretched itself a little thin with the acquisitions of The Brutalist and Queer, both films that have aspirations of making a splash this awards season. I still think Kwedar’s work is strong enough to find a way in when it’s all said and done, but the road to a nomination narrows as each day goes by. 

Edward Berger, Conclave

Papal shenanigans abound in Edward Berger’s follow-up to his critically acclaimed adaptation of All Quiet on the Western Front, a film that propelled him to a level of prestige and acclaim that had all eyes looking forward to his next project. Conclave continues the pattern of absolute technical mastery, utilizing amazing production design, camera work, and score to bring a lot of weight to an adaptation of an airport thriller. Berger gets amazing performances out of his main cast and has crafted a very approachable, crowd-pleasing film that could line up a lot of nominations. Berger’s odds of earning a second best director nomination are pretty high just two weeks after its wide release, but I still have him outside my top five. There’s something missing from Conclave that’s hard to put words to, but it’s more likely that the crafts and performances get recognized without Berger joining in the fun. 

RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys

In a just world, RaMell Ross would be squarely in the top three of this race, with Nickel Boys being an absolute stroke of genius that only he could produce. Ross’ first foray into narrative feature follows a young black teenager throughout his life after being sent to a juvenile detention camp in Florida for being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Nickel Boys is powerful and its message is potent. Ross’s direction style could not be more singular than in this film, with camera techniques and narrative choices that do much more than just bring the Colson Whitehead novel to the big screen. This is one of the most incredible achievements by a director this century, and it may fall short of recognition for its headiness and unique perspective. Some may call it pretentious, but it’s impossible to deny Ross’s amazing work with this film. As it positions itself for a late December wide release, there’s an opportunity for Ross to pick up steam at the end of the race. 

Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

The hardest cut from my top five is Mohammad Rasoulof for his work on The Seed of the Sacred Fig. The film follows a family in Tehran led by a man who works as an investigating judge for the country’s corrupt court system in the midst of social and political unrest. The risks that Rousalof took to make this film should be worthy of garnering him a nomination. They had to film secretly every few days just to finish the film, and he has since been exiled as an enemy of the state. This film simply wouldn’t exist without his efforts and creative mind, and the narrative he puts forward has a sense of urgency that none of the other contenders gets relatively close to. His ability to get global themes across through the lens of a more contained family drama is truly amazing. Despite everything going for it, there might be stronger domestic narratives outside the film’s control that keep it at bay. Most predictors have Rasoulof between four and nine on their Best Director lists, and I’m not sure what the hesitancy is here. I’m hopeful that people are underestimating the international shift the Academy has made over the past few years, and Rasoulof can ultimately find himself rewarded for his work.  

Strongest Contenders

Sean Baker, Anora

So far, Anora seems unstoppable. From its Palme d’Or victory at Cannes to its rapturous response at the fall festivals, Sean Baker appears to have burst through with this film. Baker’s one-of-a-kind sensibilities and repeated highlighting of sex workers have kept most of his films out of the awards conversation. Still, there’s something about Anora that’s captured audiences of all kinds over the past six months. He proved he could deliver the same level of greatness with a higher budget. I don’t think this is his strongest directorial outing, but the overwhelming support for the film will likely be enough to land him a nomination. 

Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

It’s official: the Gladiator II hype train is welcoming passengers aboard, and I bought a first-class ticket. Scott’s late work has certainly had mixed reviews, but there’s been a lot of good in these otherwise flawed films. Early reactions indicate a potential return to form for Scott, which could pave the way to his fourth Best Director nomination. If Gladiator II proves to be a cinematic spectacle like its predecessor, a lot of below-the-line support and a lifetime of goodwill for Ridley Scott will lead to double-digit nominations for the film. An important piece of the puzzle here is that Denzel Washington has been getting a lot of predictions for Best Supporting Actor, even more than Scott for Director. Audiences are taking the movie seriously, which was one of the big questions heading into its release. 

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Having been the first real contender of the year, you’d think that Villeneuve would have fallen out of the race a long time ago as more films get seen. Yet, here we are. The support for Dune: Part II and his direction has stayed surprisingly strong, weathering every storm that’s come its way. This may have as much to do with the strategies of other campaigns as it does with Dune’s success. Films that think they have a strong chance at winning Best Picture have been hesitant to take too strong a lead early in the year, not wanting to lose steam along the long road to Oscars night. This has left Dune as the frontrunner in several categories, even this late in the year. I simply can’t fathom Villeneuve being left out at this point. Of course, things may shift as more releases come, but the strong indications are that he will receive his second Best Director nomination. 

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez

As Jacques Audiard’s French-produced, Spanish-spoken musical Emilia Perez continues to dazzle audiences in its festival world tour, it’s becoming abundantly clear that Audiard is one of the top competitors for Best Director. He’s been a staple of French cinema since the 1970s and has finally made a film receiving wide international acclaim. It will be interesting to see how it’s received upon its wider release, but it keeps picking up strong supporters at every stop. Audiard’s vision is bold and audacious and provides strong performances from Zoe Saldaña and Karla Sofía Gascón. There has been a strong reception to the film itself as well as the musical numbers featuring many Best Original Song contenders. As we’ve seen over the past few years, at least one of the Best Director nominees winds up coming from an international film, and Audiard is most likely to be the representative this go around. 

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

The Brutalist, much like Oppenheimer, seems undeniable on many fronts. It’s not so much that it’s dominating every category like Oppenheimer, but more that it is a masterpiece and an outstanding achievement by the director. Corbet’s fingerprints can be seen in every frame of the 3.5-hour runtime. The scale, craftsmanship, and performances are difficult to ignore, even if some plot points might not sit right with everyone in the third act. It’s difficult to describe The Brutalist’s successes to those who haven’t seen it yet. It’s slow, but not boring. It’s meticulous, but riveting at every turn. I was on the edge of my seat watching two men discuss brutalist architecture for minutes at a time. Corbet is a lock to make the field for Best Director, and I think he will be difficult to unseat at the top of the pile. 

There’s still about five months to go until the Academy Awards, and momentum shifts for all these films are bound to happen. The shortlist has certainly gotten shorter over the past couple of months, but the films discussed above are built for the long haul of awards season. Be sure to check out each of these films as they become available so you can follow along with the race and be outraged on nomination day like the rest of us.