I like to romanticize editing as an art in and of itself. Unlike painting, sculpture, stage performance, or photography, film gets the benefit of an edit. A scene in a movie can shift the audience’s allegiance with a shot here and a smash cut there. In my last piece about editing, I wrote about how beautifully and expertly an editor can shift the tone of a scene or an entire film. I likened it to an assemblage of emotions. Now, I’d like to focus on how an editor can play with time.

An editor is like an omniscient being, always seeing time laid out before them. Working with their director, they can extend or cut short any sequence to build a reality for the characters within the narrative. They create the time of the film, not our reality’s runtime, but the time in which these characters will ever exist. Sometimes, that existence is over the course of a relationship— where it starts and where it ends, all mixed in with each other like in We Live in Time. Sometimes, it’s 90 minutes of nerve-wracking anxiety before a TV show premieres like Saturday Night. Sometimes, it’s a dreamy couple of weeks where a transactional relationship turns into something more like in Anora. The editor controls how we understand and experience time.

One of the greatest tricks at play in We Live in Time, edited by Justine Wright, is that we find ourselves in a story already in progress but not in the way we expect. Some  scenes move Almut (Florence Pugh) and Tobias’ (Andrew Garfield) story forward, but in a way that is a flashback to their past. Every jump forward or backward helps build and fill in their years together. It serves to ease us into the fact that the ending, as hard as it is, is inevitable but ultimately fulfilling because of the challenges we saw them overcome over years of courtship, frustration, and love.

In contrast, Saturday Night, edited by Nathan Orloff and Shane Reid, is a train on a track barrelling ever forward, picking up speed as it heads into the station instead of slowing down. The fact that the story for the film is explicitly set during the 90 minutes prior to the first episode of Saturday Night Live hitting the air is a rigid construct with little room to move time in any way but forward. With the long tracking shots and the complicated crowd scenes, it’s a wonder, like that first episode of Saturday Night Live, that these editors could make it coherent. That’s the beauty of the craft, though, to hide the sweat and the seams to make something effortless and like they could have shot the film in one go over that specific 90 minutes.

The most incredible, madcap use of time in almost any film this year, comes from Anora, edited by Sean Baker (who also wrote and directed the film). The sequence comes as the love-drunk young couple Ivan (Mark Eydelshteyn) and Ani (Mikey Madison) are discovered, and henchmen Garnick (Vache Tovmasyan) and Igor (Yura Borisov) are dispatched by family fixer Toros (Karren Karagulian) to assess the situation. Tensions come to a head, and Toros, having been called from the scene, claims he is on his way, just ten minutes away. Within that ten minutes, all hell breaks loose. Ivan bolts, Ani is captured, and Garnick and Igor are on their back feet. The action cuts between what is happening at the mansion and Toros making his way through New York City traffic. The goofiness of these men trying to contain this situation is compounded by the fact that Toros is still on the line and can only hear the madness occurring. It’s scary, exciting, and ludicrously funny.

The way films are edited acts like a compilation of people’s memories. Memory for one person is fuzzy. Memory can be lost, but with the addition of other memories, a new era can be established. A well-edited film is a perfect piece of time in a character or group of character’s lives. Editing dictates how this cacophony of memory is understood and brings the memories into better focus. Time is constructed and wielded to create empathy for the fiction occurring on screen. It may be too long, or it may be too short, but in the end, it was all the time it needed.

There is a concept that circulates every award season and is pervasive in every conversation about the performance categories. It’s called a “Legacy Oscar.” Essentially, a “Legacy Oscar” is about rewarding a performer who has been consistently good for their entire career but has not received  the recognition they deserve for their body of work. It can take many forms but is typically a multiple nominee—think Glenn Close (8 nominations, no wins) or Amy Adams (6 nominations, no wins)—who may not be “past their prime” but is someone the Academy wants on their winner roster before it’s too late. This “legacy” recognition can also be a performer who has never been nominated for an Oscar but has had a terrific career—think Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Charlotte Rampling (45 Years), or Isabelle Huppert (Elle).

Sometimes, this concept and the wave of emotional reminiscing about a performer’s career can lead to a win. It’s often not necessarily that that particular performance really is the best of the season, but one that arrives at the right time. The concept that it has been a long enough wait is a strange one when it comes to judging art, but really, all an Oscar is is a slap on the back from peer to peer. It has happened several times in Best Actress in the nearly century-long history of the Academy Awards.

In the last 25 years, at least three Best Actress wins, even if they were deserving, can be categorized as “Legacy Oscars.” In 2010, Kate Winslet won her first Oscar for The Reader after five previous nominations for Best Actress and Supporting Actress. In 2012, Meryl Streep took home the trophy for The Iron Lady. It was her third win, but the time between win number two (Sophie’s Choice, 1983) and win number three had been 29 years, and the consensus was that Streep was due for another coronation. In 2015, Julianne Moore won her first Oscar for Still Alice after four previous nominations in Best Actress and Supporting Actress.

It’s a tradition that has spurned endless debates, and the performances from the films of 2024 will be no different. Many are still to be seen, but several have already been released this year and buzzed about (even in this very column). Here are two to consider as the final films of the year make their way into the crowded field.

Saoirse Ronan is one of the actresses vying for her “Legacy Oscar” this year. Yes, Saoirse Ronan. At 30 years old, she is already a four-time Oscar nominee. Her first nomination was at 13 years old in 2008 for her supporting performance in Atonement. She went on to be a constant name on the lips of every pundit in the 2010s by securing nominations for her lead performances in Brooklyn (2016), Lady Bird (2018), and Little Women (2020). She has been a consistent and tremendous performer for her entire career and her work in this year’s The Outrun is just another showcase for her spectacular talent. It’s her most assured and mature role to date and she eases into it effortlessly. She’s a boundless talent, and while often the “Legacy Oscar” comes as people worry a performer doesn’t have another good role on the horizon, this win would be a terrific early career (yes, despite the data, she’s still only getting started and has a long career ahead) achievement for her.

Demi Moore is in a very different position than Ronan, but also in consideration for a “Legacy Oscar.” Despite  good performances throughout her career—Ghost (1990), A Few Good Men (1992), G.I. Jane (1997), and Margin Call (2011), Moore has been left on the sidelines of the Oscar conversation. Then came The Substance, a body horror allegory tailor-made for an actress with Moore’s  tremendous talents. She bares her soul in the film and captures a magic that few could even come close to, with such raw emotion coursing through every movement and line delivery. If there is to be a “Legacy Oscar”  win or nomination this year, it couldn’t go to a more deserving actress in a more deserving role.

Lately, though, the paradigms have shifted, and the voters can and will throw a curveball into a race that was decided several precursors before or is deemed a performer’s time to win. Just remember Glenn Close’s face as Olivia Colman’s name was read on Oscar night 2019, which was supposed to be her triumphant walk to the stage. Anything can happen, and legacy can be overthrown for history. As we learned last year, with the history-making nomination of Lily Gladstone, that kind of narrative doesn’t have the solid foothold it thinks it does as Emma Stone walked home with the gold even as nearly every pundit had Gladstone as a sure bet.

It seemed for a while there (pre-pandemic) that superhero films were building to something. It seemed a sort of legitimacy was developing within critic’s groups and awards circuits as the genre ballooned and evolved. Then the whispers became an out loud conversation as Deadpool (2016) cracked into Best Motion Picture Musical or Comedy and Best Actor in a Motion Picture Musical or Comedy for Ryan Reynolds at the Golden Globes. 

The following year found Logan (2017) placed in the middle of the Best Adapted Screenplay nominees. The year after that, Black Panther (2018) shattered the glass ceiling, being nominated for seven Oscars, including Best Picture, and winning three (Score, Costume Design, and Production Design). Then Joker (2019) laughed its way to eleven Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, Director and Actor, and winning two (Score and Actor).

It seemed like the time for ignoring superhero films as merely paltry entertainment was over. The legitimacy of capes and cowls had arrived at last. With rumors of the next great auteur filmmaker, Chloé Zhao, taking on an obscure and mythology-heavy superhero team, the Eternals, for Marvel, it seemed as if we would be treated to a lauded and praised superhero film at least once a year. It wasn’t to be, though.

After the smashing successes of the climactic end to the Infinity Saga and a disastrous campaign to salvage the bad press of the Justice League film, Marvel and DC entered a slump. Would they have stayed in a slump if a global pandemic hadn’t shut down movie theaters and film production? Absolutely. The majority of the blockbuster slate of films for the year 2020 and a few slated for 2021 were completed by the time the shutdowns occurred. It was too late, and the fatigue had mounted. The majority of superhero films that followed into 2022 and 2023 couldn’t capture the old magic. They made millions, sometimes hundreds of millions, of course, but lost fans, box office dominance, and the goodwill of the critics.

So with a titanic shift in Marvel’s strategy, a dissolution of the shared universe hopes of the DCEU, Sony grasping at their thinning web of influence in the Spider-Man adjacent universe, and the extended production shutdowns because of the writers and actors strikes of 2023, we entered 2024 with fewer superhero titles than in many years. It’s unlikely that this year’s crop will have any hope come Oscars time, except maybe crammed into the Visual Effects category.

If Deadpool & Wolverine had tried to claw a modicum of its autonomy from the snowballing juggernaut that is the MCU, it could have had a chance. The two characters have already had their brushes with glory, but corporate synergy masquerading as a plot does not make a great film. The ego trip masquerading as charm Ryan Reynolds puts onto the screen is also wearing very thin. 

So, too big swings toward genre mashups fail when neither is committed wholeheartedly. Even if you don’t like the original Joker (this writer is included in that category), the seamlessness of translating a comic book villain to a crime drama made a great deal of sense. Translating the same villain into a musical fever dream? Not so much. Maybe Joker: Folie á Deux just didn’t swing hard enough, or the Venn diagram of people who like dark and moody superhero films and those who like musicals is far too thin a margin to build a major release on.

Though they’re in a slump now, the absolute glut of superhero franchise films hitting screens in 2025 may rebuild the momentum the genre has lost in the awards sphere. It’s very unlikely as they have built their empire to run only on the level of appeal that can’t be described as massive but more like total. It would be better if they took a tough look at their properties and tried to make better and more inventive films, but money talks louder than art, and superheroes will always have a one-in-five chance at the Visual Effects category.

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The festivals and end-of-year rush to the screen have thrown the Best Picture race into chaos or at least sloughed off my greatest hopes for my summer favorites to break through. So, from the last column to this one, there is a rather grand shift of films. Only three titles from the previous column remain as the field narrows weekend by weekend and as precursor awards begin their deliberations and announcements.

This is a curated list of possible nominees amongst the films that have been theatrically released. It’s fun to speculate on what may be coming later in the year, but I’ll focus only on what has had its widest possible release at the time of publication. The list will evolve as we get closer to show time. The list will be split into three categories.

The first category will be called “Safe Bet.” These films are the most likely to carry through the season and into the list of Oscar nominees. The next category will be called “Strong Potential.” These films have something going for them but may not have enough momentum to last the season. The final category will be called “Hopeful.” These are films that I want to highlight as worthy contenders that are likely to be ignored.

Here’s where I see the Best Picture field at this point.

Safe Bet

• Anora

• Challengers

• Conclave

• Dune: Part Two

• Sing Sing

Strong Potential

• The Substance

• The Apprentice

Hopeful

• A Different Man

• We Live in Time

• Saturday Night

I’ve discovered that rather than trying to categorize the five nominated films in Best Original Screenplay into archetypes like you would with Best Picture— the Indie Darling, the Blockbuster, the Genre Defier, etc— it works better to place the films into a few macro-genres. I see three macro-genres as the most dominant categories to place original screenplays. I call these macro-genres “The Real,” “The Weird,” and “The Dramedy.”

“The Real” is the most controversial in my mind. It’s a screenplay using historical figures but not drawn from a single source. Avoiding a single source is how they sidestep the Adapted Screenplay category. These screenplays are either broad, covering a long period of history, or microscopic, covering a singular event in a figure’s life. This category includes films like Maestro (2024), Judas and the Black Messiah (2021), and Vice (2019). They’re apocryphal texts that rely heavily on the “based on a true story” title card.

“The Weird” is filled with everything from sci-fi parables to horror, magical realism, and everything that’s out of the ordinary. “The Weird” is where the subjective nature of art appreciation is tested when our perceptions of reality are challenged. Films like Everything, Everywhere All at Once (2023), Get Out (2018), and Ex Machina (2016) are great examples of when a concept can speak to deep questions about humanity. 

“The Dramedy” encompasses the broadest swath of films because it lacks the kind of genre vision of “The Weird” or the grounding of a story you can research like “The Real.” It’s the kind of film that streamers have embraced in abundance. They’re human stories that blend drama and comedy, told well, and in a way we may never have thought of. Some prime examples are Past Lives (2024), Sound of Metal (2021), and The Big Sick (2018). They’re stories that stick with you and change your perspective.

In the last couple of months, we have seen an uptick in original films. Many have been put forward by pundits and prognosticators as potential awards nominees. Here’s where several of these recent original features fit into the macro-genres.

The Real

Even though the production of Saturday Night, written by Gil Kenan and Jason Reitman, has nothing to do with the production of the 50th season of the TV show it’s based on, Saturday Night Live, it is quite a marketing gimmick for both entities. The film is well-written and thoroughly researched, impressively packing in a great deal of pop culture lore into a film shorter than two hours.

There is also an unlikely coincidence that The Apprentice, written by Gabriel Sherman, is out in the same year its subject has been reelected to a second term as president. Its reliance on anecdotal stories and public records is a picture of the man he was and a blueprint of the man he became. It joins other films of living political figures that took the same multi-source material route to be considered original films, like W. (2008), Southside with You (2016), and Vice (2018).

Serial killers are a topic of discussion and obsession for many people. While films that feature them often focus on the grizzly details or the killers themselves, Woman of the Hour, written by Ian McDonald, focuses more on a would-be victim. The killer’s real crimes are portrayed, but the crimes themselves aren’t there to be titillation for the viewer. They reinforce the ideas at the core of the film. It’s really the little asides or small details that make the writing stand out.

The Weird

The Substance, written by Coralie Fargeat, is a satirical allegory that goes beyond merely poking at the long-held beliefs of those in power. It’s a visceral and gruesome testament to the lengths people will go to get back some of what they’ve lost. The script brings horror, comedy, and real dramatic stakes to its mind-bending world. It’s a film that, in this world of segmented zeitgeists and niche culture, might go down as a word-of-mouth cult classic.

Sometimes, a film about change is really about not understanding the real change you need to make in your life. A Different Man, written by Aaron Schimberg, takes on the complicated ideas behind appearance and society. What the film posits is that it’s O.K. to try and change the way you look. Yet, as you see in the film, you must change for the right reasons and can’t go back if you suddenly realize you were wrong. It’s a tantalizing tale that gets very strange indeed.

The Dramedy

Sean Baker’s films are a little haphazard, but Anora, written by Baker, has a coherent purpose that many of his other films lack. This film looks at class and love in a way that shifts our allegiances and makes us laugh through our tears. He pulls off a tremendous tonal balancing act with a character journey that is nearly perfect in every aspect.

Love stories can be complicated, raw, and feel real, which makes them truly worth watching. We Live in Time, written by Nick Payne, plays out a relationship through different periods of time but never loses its connection to the two characters at its core. A film like this is so elegant in design but never feels like too much of a manipulation because it keeps you guessing how it will all come together.

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September and October have completely upended my previous Original Screenplay predictions, and I have come up with a brand new set of five films. Here is where I see the Best Original Screenplay race as of now. The list is limited to films that have had their release in theaters or on streamers.

• • Anora – Sean Baker
  • Saturday Night – Gil Kenan and Jason Reitman
  • The Substance – Coralie Fargeat
  • We Live in Time – Nic Payne
  • Woman of the Hour – Ian McDonald

Pundits handicap Oscar nominations on a spectrum between activism and dispassionate observation. Even those who typically lean toward the latter pole will occasionally (when wading through the uncertainties of a category’s bottom slots) give the edge to a film or performance they personally enjoy over one that presents formidably on paper. Colman Domingo, for example, had all the requisite precursor nods for Rustin heading into nominations morning. Still, plenty of awards enthusiasts went out on a limb and predicted that Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers) or Zac Efron (The Iron Claw) would end up 2023’s fifth Leading Actor contender. These were expressions of faith in voters’ adventurism rather than attempts to actually shape the race. After all, Scott and Efron were part of the conversation for films that were conceivably within reach of a nomination before anyone started overestimating their chances. Anointing contenders has traditionally been a task performed by festival programmers and regional critics associations. Some of that influence has been democratized; the historic performance of Everything Everywhere All at Once has understandably conditioned us to be on the lookout for unconventional, internet-backed passion picks. This year, however, good-natured “hopedicting” has been replaced by a call-to-action style of punditry for which the success or failure of September 5 and The Substance will prove a critical test. 

A dramatization of the hostage crisis that unfolded during the 1972 Munich Olympics, September 5 was virtually unheard of until Hollywood Reporter Oscar columnist Scott Feinberg single-handedly jumpstarted the film’s campaign by placing it in his Best Picture predictions (at the very top, no less). Was Feinberg reading the tea leaves or shrewdly canvassing on behalf of a movie he personally favors? American Fiction crashed the race a year ago as a festival breakout, but the eventual Best Picture nominee and Adapted Screenplay winner first claimed the TIFF People’s Choice Award; Drive My Car won a slew of prizes from critics before anyone took it seriously as an Oscar contender. Tim Fehlbaum’s historical drama, on the other hand, played the festival circuit with zero profile until THR’s chief awards pundit made the online film world collectively go, “What the hell is September 5?” That anonymity has played to the film’s advantage by positioning it as one of the season’s few word-of-mouth discoveries (despite, of course, its candidacy having been manufactured by a top industry trade). Now that September 5 is part of the mix—and placeholders like Blitz and Saturday Night are rapidly sliding down the ranks—nominations for Picture, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, and Editing are all in play. Will the film rack up nods like Argo and Spotlight, have a modest showing like The Post, or get ignored entirely like She Said? Though we’re still awaiting word on several latecomers, including a Bob Dylan biopic, September 5 is this season’s real complete unknown.

The journalistic thriller may not have pedigree on its side, but it at least fits the mold of an awards contender. The same cannot be said of this season’s other major dark horse, Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance.

Until recently, most pundits refused to even entertain the possibility of Robert Eggers scoring a Best Director nomination for his Nosferatu remake (despite its origin in one of cinema’s oldest IPs). “They’re not going to nominate a horror movie.” Those voices have dramatically changed their tune for not just a horror movie, but one of the grossest horror movies since David Cronenberg’s The Fly. That the academy declined to even shortlist Julia Ducournau’s Palme-winning Titane for Best International Feature only a few years ago hasn’t staunched the tsunami of genuine passion backing The Substance. Bolstering the film’s chances are Demi Moore’s status of being overdue, a lack of viable options directed by women, and a political climate not dissimilar to the one in which Get Out became an unlikely awards darling. Whereas that film was released only a few months after a contentious election that primarily focused on race, Fargeat’s feminist body horror overtook the zeitgeist during a political cycle that drew battle lines along women’s rights. Could the symbol of a gender-centric rebuke to a second Trump term really be Monstro ElisaSue?

Perhaps, but there’s little reason to believe voters would ever naturally gravitate toward a viscerally repulsive option like The Substance. The film’s participation in this season’s awards derby is owed entirely to online stans who fashioned a Hail Mary bid for Makeup & Hairstyling into a full-fledged campaign. In addition to Makeup & Hairstyling, The Substance is currently competitive for nominations in Picture, Actress, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, and Sound. The film’s most optimistic proponents envision a package that even includes Cinematography, Production Design, and Supporting Actress. The conditions for such an anomaly are highly specific, but Twitter will nevertheless hopedict races from now on with renewed zeal if The Substance indeed becomes a major Oscar contender.

Though very different from each other and endorsed by very different corners of film discourse, The Substance and September 5 will reveal just how much of awards season is a game of self-fulfilling prophecies. Should their underdog campaigns reap success, expect to see more pundits in the future prognosticating the Oscars with their hearts rather than heads.

Power is almost always equated with violence: all of those old-school movie heroes, from John Wayne to Arnold Schwarzenegger, were males who proved their worth on screen through killing, mutilating, beating the villains, and saving the day. But there’s another level of power: the power to be vulnerable, to open up, to inspire and get inspired. Then, there are subtle male vulnerability expositions that leave viewers curious and wide open, like fish with hooks in their mouths. 

That’s Divine G (Colman Domingo) in Sing Sing. Greg Kwedar’s new prison drama is based on books about and stories by Divine G, a former Sing Sing Maximum Security Prison inmate, and his work as part of the Rehabilitation Through the Arts (RTA) program. It has everything a cinephile could hope for: powerful performances, tight and narrow frames, a handheld camera that dances with the actors as they rehearse for a play, and lighting that leaves a grainy, hazy feel to a beautifully oppressive film.

That’s the key to Sing Sing, and Domingo, one of the major, most deserving Best Lead Actor contenders in this awards season. There’s beauty in the breakdown. A subtlety to a taboo subject such as male vulnerability. It’s nuanced because it’s a prison setting, and men have to live their tough upfronts to the end. It’s poetic because our main protagonist is a playwright, a man incarcerated for a crime he didn’t commit. For someone like Divine G, there’s no greater pain. An artist under lock and key, trapped in a world where he can’t get out. What greater torment than to be Divine G as he tries to hold on to light in the confinement of a prison cell, grasping for dear life in this Rehabilitation Through The Arts (RTA) program and finding his creativity and inspiration by building a life within a life?

This character arc sounds complicated and messy, potentially unsettling in the hands of a less profound and magnetic actor than Domingo. It’s easy to dismiss other performances this awards season after watching him dominate the screen, eating up every scene like a howling ghoul but doing it with sad, desperate eyes and lips that have a smile plastered on them half the time. He walks a fine line between hope and despair, but even at the most heightened moments of openness and embracing everything there is to indulge in from the bleak existence of incarceration, his underlying melancholy works like a trigger warning, anticipating any hint of mutiny to go off script.

Divine G defies oppression and plays the role of a surrogate father to his fellow inmates. He’s not exactly a hero, but more of a provocateur when needed, and he can bring a nurturing, distinctly maternal – not paternal – energy when the situation calls for it. But it’s not until the film fleshes out his interactions with fellow inmates —most prominently Mike Mike (Sean San José) and Divine Eye (Clarence Maclin)— that the film plays out differently. Only then do we witness Divine G’s protective facade begin to crack, his false optimism crumble, and his anger and frustration with injustice build to a powerful breakdown—an intense scene that only actors of the highest versatility can convincingly deliver. Domingo takes the audience through the rollercoaster of emotions going through a man hanging by a thread to the hope in his heart, trying everything to avoid the fact that he’s been unjustly treated and doesn’t deserve to have his free artistic soul held captive.

In one scene, Domingo’s Divine G extends his hand across a window as if he can reach the Hudson River, and I feel compelled to reach out to him so that our hands would touch. A performance that allows a person to break through emotional barriers is worthy of award prestige and recognition. Domingo has delivered several awards-caliber performances, including Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and through Zola and Rustin (which earned him his first Oscar nomination last year). In Sing Sing though, he does something entirely different, building on the past but refining the present. For this feature, his Academy Award nomination is not only a must, but his win is also a triumph, not just for a brilliant, sensitive artist, but for the power of the arts as represented in the film he’s carrying on his shoulders.

Picking the winner for Best Animated Feature might not be too tricky, as there are usually one or two films ahead of the pack regarding this award, but predicting the films that will make the top five is another challenge, which is why there hasn’t been an update over the past few months… until now. Now that it’s November, many leading contenders have either come out or have their release date right around the corner to hit the family-heavy Thanksgiving and Christmas market. Below is where I, as of today, see the race for Best Animated Feature.

Ahead of the Pack?

The Wild Robot, Inside Out 2, and Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl are the only films I feel comfortable saying are in a comfortable position for a nomination as of now. The Wild Robot is as frontrunner as a frontrunner can be, earning a reasonably strong $233 million box office and scoring incredibly high in all the review sectors—98% (Rotten Tomatoes), 85 (Metacritic), 4.3 (Letterboxd). Not only did it perform well at the theater, but many awards pundits consider it a threat in other categories like Adapted Screenplay, Score, and Best Picture. As someone who’s been brutally burned over the past two years with Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio and Across the Spider-Verse underperforming in nominations, I won’t go as far as predicting The Wild Robot outside of Animated Feature. Still, the recognition is strong, and this film seems to have staying power across the board.

Releasing in June, Inside Out 2 has decisively claimed the title of the top-grossing film of 2024, and it’s clear this position is secure. With the closest contender, Deadpool &  Wolverine, trailing by a staggering $300 million, there’s no real threat on the horizon for a new box office champion for the remainder of the year. The only potential rival is Wicked, but its success remains uncertain due to its runtime and the caliber of films launching with it. It isn’t uncommon for an animated film to dominate the box office like this. But, box office domination doesn’t have a massive correlation with Oscars success; however, in the case of Inside Out 2, the box office and critical success mixed with the fact that it’s not only a sequel to an Animated Feature winner but also, surprisingly, the only Pixar film released the entire year, makes this inclusion feel like a given. Nevertheless, unless Inside Out 2 picks up momentum, it feels like this will be a film that is a lock for the final five but not a real contender to win. As I said, this could change; maybe it connected with more people than some of these other films, and perhaps the Pixar name and love for the original carry more weight than I anticipated. Still, at this moment, I think a nomination is both the ceiling and maybe even the floor for Inside Out 2.

I went back and forth with Vengeance Most Fowl being a film I felt comfortable predicting for a while because while the Academy has always seemed to love Aardman Animations (the studio has picked up 9 Oscar nominations with the most recent being in 2021 with A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon), do they still love Wallace & Gromit themselves? We haven’t seen the two since 2008, and this is only the second feature film involving them. Then, the first reviews and reactions came out, and my confidence only rose. As I’m writing this, Vengeance Most Fowl currently has a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score and an 82 on Metacritic, which will be released on Netflix, a studio that is becoming familiar with this category. The stop motion adds another level that the Academy has grown to love; I would be pretty shocked if Vengeance Most Fowl didn’t appear on nomination morning.

Close Behind?

So, with three of the spots already claimed, who will get the final two? The race begins to get complicated because The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, Moana 2, Flow, Memoir of a Snail, and Piece by Piece are all viable contenders for the final five. 

Moana 2 is a relatively safe starting point. Still, the questions surrounding the Moana property are vast, given that the live-action film was announced before the sequel and the speed at which Disney released this film—it was initially announced in February and will be released in November. It’s easy to say that Moana 2 is in for similar reasons to Inside Out 2, being that it is a Disney production and a sequel; however, the original Moana lost out to another Disney production, Zootopia, back in 2016. Plus, since winning for Encanto (2021), Disney has not had a film be nominated for Best Animated Feature. So, while Moana 2 might seem like an obvious choice for a slot, this is a year where it just might not be that simple, either.

Another film with massive question marks is The War of the Rohirrim. Anime-style animation, outside of Miyazaki, is virtually non-existent regarding Oscar nominations. There is a type of animated film the Academy likes that involves primarily a hand-drawn 2D or 3D style, and they have consistently gravitated towards those films in the past. However, although it’s been over twenty years since The Lord of the Rings trilogy took over the Oscars regarding wins and nominations, people still have a soft spot for these Middle-earth stories. The question now comes: will The War of the Rohirrim be embraced for taking on such a beloved series in a vastly new way, or will it be rejected for trying to continue something some people hold so dearly? We won’t fully know for a while as the film won’t release until December 13, but there’s a world where this film comes out of nowhere and wins this award, one where it is left off the list entirely, and almost everything in between. In my opinion, you won’t find a more significant wildcard for this specific category.

I really can’t believe I have to do this, but I think Piece by Piece, the Pharell Williams biopic told through Legos, including Lego versions of people like Kendrick Lamar, Jay-Z, Snoop Dogg, and Martin Luther King Jr., could wind up making it into the list of five. It’s a film that was positively reviewed, and even if the box office hasn’t been spectacular, it’s hard not to bring up things like nostalgia and who is all involved. My biggest hangup, outside of the pretty insane concept, is that The Lego Movie, which earned an Annie and Golden Globe Nom and a BAFTA, PGA, and Critics Choice Win, failed to earn an Oscar nomination in Best Animated Feature. This snub is even more surprising given that it did pick up a nomination for the song ‘Everything is Awesome’ performed by The Lonely Island. Pharell Williams’s title song, ‘Piece by Piece,’ could make a push for Oscars consideration itself. It is making an impact as it has been used for various ESPN programming. However, even if the song does break through, it still feels doubtful that this will all formulate into an Animated Feature nomination for this film. However, even if it is absurd, it is still a biopic, and the names attached are still relevant today. Some characters have never been more relevant, which could garner enough goodwill to land this film a nomination.

Then we have the international contenders of Flow (Latvia) and Memoir of a Snail (Australia). Flow follows a black cat who, after a devastating flood ruins their home, must team up with other species of animals and learn to exist. It seems as though through the trailers that it is going to be a dialogue-free film, having the animal noises be what is heard most throughout, but the early reviews have been that the visuals – which are so unique it takes watching the trailer to understand – are the emotional driving force of the film. We have seen animated films that take certain visual risks be rewarded at the Academy, and Flow could be next in line. 

On the other hand, Memoir of a Snail is almost the exact opposite of Flow. It is a stop-motion film by Oscar-winner Adam Elliot, and it is about a girl who recites her life to her pet snail. The emotional center here comes mainly from the dialogue and the vocal performances of Sarah Snook and Jacki Weaver. The sad and powerful score also helps, but many monologues discuss how and why we should move forward through life and, like a snail, never go over the same tracks, which are highly effective in being both the emotional and thematic heart of the film. However, while there is still a chance, there is the Vengeance Most Fowl of it all; will the Academy go for two stop-motion animated features? Nothing says they can’t, but Memoir of a Snail would have a much better shot in a different year.

I Guess There’s a Chance?

Unless there is a Robot Dreams situation where a movie comes out at the literal last second and powers its way to a nomination (although, could Flow be this year’s Robot Dreams?), I think the Oscar Five is some combination of the eight films mentioned above. The only other films I could see make a push for a nomination are Orion and the Dark, Spellbound, and Transformers: One.

Netflix released Orion and the Dark, and Charlie Kaufman is the screenwriter. That’s about all the film has going for it regarding real awards potential. That’s not to say it’s terrible by any means. It is a good movie; it just wasn’t memorable and was released far too early to have any staying power.

Spellbound is another Netflix film that is directed by one of the two directors of Shrek. There has to be something worth noting in that regard; however, what even is Spellbound? There doesn’t seem to be a massive push behind the film in any way, and there hasn’t been any indication if the film is even any good given that there have not been reactions and it doesn’t release until November 22. If it is, we could look at multiple nominations since it is also a musical. Still, it’s definitely on the outside looking in, and with Netflix pushing Vengeance Most Fowl as well, Spellbound will need some real magic.

Transformers One is the film in this section that makes this writer the saddest. I reviewed the film, and I was massively shocked not only by some of the film’s immaculate animation but also by the story’s depth and relevance. This one will end the year in my top 5 animated films of the year, and there is reason to believe Transformers One has a shot since there is support for the film, but similar to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem last year, it takes more than support to get into the final five.

That’s Not All Folks

It was announced around mid-October that The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie would be released theatrically in February 2025. Because of that announcement, I wrote the film off in terms of awards potential for the 2024 season. However, there is a plan to give it a qualifying run this season, and the first reviews have been overwhelmingly high. I’m including them on my list at 11, but there is a real possibility the first fully animated feature-length Looney Tunes movie could be a last-second surprise.

My Current Prediction:

I am going with The War of the Rohirrim and Moana 2 to round out my predicted five. However, look out for Flow to make a big push late in the race, likely knocking out Moana 2. As mentioned earlier, The Wild Robot is about as safe as possible in taking home this win. Still, if there is a competition, it will be between The Wild Robot, Vengeance Most Fowl, and The War of the Rohirrim, as I can see each film winning the Oscar. Here is my current prediction:

Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot
2. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
3. Inside Out 2
4. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
5. Moana 2

Next Up:

1. Flow
2. Piece by Piece
3. Memoir of a Snail
4. Transformers One
5. Spellbound
6. The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie

Few Oscarological tenets are as dogmatically observed as the correlation between Best Supporting Actress winners and musicals nominated for Best Picture. Most pundits currently expect Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) to carry forth a streak started by Catherine Zeta-Jones (Chicago) in 2002 and upheld in 2012 and 2021 by, respectively, Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables) and Ariana DeBose (West Side Story). Since her film did not compete for the academy’s top prize, Jennifer Hudson is an outlier—but that hardly matters, considering Dreamgirls received more nominations than any other 2006 release and would have certainly contended for Best Picture had the category been expanded three years earlier. 

After Jacques Audiard’s Cannes-winning crime thriller/rock opera became a perceived heavyweight this season, Saldaña shot to the top of pundits’ predictions and has comfortably remained there since September. Playing an attorney who manages the affairs of a cartel boss (Karla Sofía Gascón) seeking gender-affirming surgery, Saldaña reminds audiences of her considerable skill as both a singer and dancer. Expected to join her for a nomination are Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Saoirse Ronan (Blitz), and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys). But a gust of laudatory wind from the north, if you will, has blown Wicked into the race for Best Picture—and with it a viable Best Supporting Actress contender in Ariana Grande.

Though once common, instances of multiple musicals competing in the same above-the-line categories nowadays are nonexistent, making this year’s field a potentially unique one in the modern era. Can the winning streak withstand multiple supporting ladies from Picture-nominated musicals vying for the prize? Should Saldaña and Grande cancel each other out, Deadwyler, Jones, and Ronan appear best advantaged. The latter’s victory could boost Emilia Pérez’s chances in another category, where one of its stars will almost certainly square off against Ronan—Best Leading Actress. The four-time nominee, tipped to receive two acting nods this year, has gotten louder praise for her top-billed performance as a recovering alcoholic in The Outrun than she has for a smaller turn in Steve McQueen’s WWII drama, but a Supporting win would block the possibility of a Still Alice-style result in Leading and leave open a clear path for Karla Sofía Gascón to take the gold. 

There’s still a very good chance, of course, that Saldaña or Grande winds up the winner. Not unlike recent Oscar recipient Robert Downey Jr., Saldaña is a multi-tentpole veteran who’s being celebrated for displaying dormant or previously unseen talent; a pop star performing well in a musical, on the other hand, may not be appreciated as the same kind of flex. Nevertheless, Grande’s film won’t be as divisive as Emilia Pérez has been so far and, like Chicago, Les Mis, and West Side Story, is based on a beloved stage production. 

Though a vote split could, as earlier demonstrated, theoretically help Emilia Pérez (so long as the gain is Ronan’s), Grande might prove detrimental to the Netflix MVP’s nomination haul by simply cracking the lineup—even if Saldaña ultimately takes the Oscar. Right outside the projected Top 5, Selena Gomez is angling to occupy a slot alongside her Emilia Pérez co-star. Gomez has friends in high buildings, so to speak, but will two Disney-Channel-alum-turned-pop-stars manage to clinch nominations in the same year? The Only Murders in the Building Emmy nominee has garnered favorable notices (and is a quarter of this year’s Best Actress recipient at Cannes) for playing the title character’s scorned wife. Still,  the role is significantly smaller than Saldaña’s and doesn’t provide the sort of scene-stealing material that made “Banshee boys” Barry Keoghan and Brendan Gleeson a package deal two years ago. Her character also isn’t as integral to the film as Stephanie Hsu’s is to Everything Everywhere All at Once. If the academy falls for Emilia Pérez the way it did for EEAAO, Gomez is likely to partake in the spoils. However, if the movie gets as polarized a reception from voters as it has from critics and underperforms on the morning nominations are announced, she might be its most expendable bid. In a contest between the two, Grande’s co-lead performance enjoys an edge over Gomez’s coattail candidacy.

Wicked’s embargo has yet to lift, but early word indicates that the race for Best Supporting Actress is far from over. If Saldaña and Grande both snag nominations (and their films are recognized in Best Picture), will one of the two women prevail and preserve the Supporting Actress/BP-nominated-musical stat, or will Wicked’s insurgency split the vote and break the spell?

With the end of the 2024 fall festival season comes a much clearer look into the Best Director awards race. Some serious contenders have emerged, while other strong showings from the spring and summer have faded into the background. Let’s look at who still has an outside shot, who’s on the bubble, and who the strongest contenders are as we hurdle toward the year’s end. 

Dark Horse Candidates

Mike Leigh, Hard Truths

Mike Leigh’s latest offering features a reunion between the director and actress Marianne Jean-Baptiste as a mother navigating a difficult relationship with her husband and son. Most of the praise has come for Jean-Baptiste’s hilarious and devastating performance, but there’s always an outside chance that momentum could pick up for the beloved director. At 81 years old, Leigh has garnered seven Academy Award nominations, with two being for Best Director. This could be his last film, and with enough support, it could push him to a nomination. Given the lack of acclaim for anything outside Jean-Baptiste and the screenplay, it does seem like a stretch to put him anywhere near the top 10 contenders, but it’s worth noting his previous success with awards voters.

Luca Guadagnino, Challengers

Guadagnino’s first entry for 2024, Challengers, has come out ahead of his other feature Queer, which made its way through the festival circuit earlier this year. The latter is much more meditative and supernatural at times, making it a tougher sell to awards voters. Simply put, Queer is just a little too out there, even for this iteration of the Academy. Despite this, support for Guadagnino and his contributions to film in 2024 could be directed towards a nomination for Challengers, signaling more of an overarching appreciation for the director himself rather than either of the films on their own. There’s a lot to love about both of his features this year, and the range he shows throughout each of them is a testament to his skill and eye for extraordinary filmmaking. As of now, it seems more likely that Challengers could sneak into Best Picture or Best Original Screenplay with a very small chance that he could break through in Director. On its best day, Challengers would only get these three nominations, with Queer catching an acting nomination for Daniel Craig. I don’t quite see this happening but don’t be surprised to see his name called if other directors lose steam down the line.

Jon M. Chu, Wicked Part One

I know  it must be jarring to see this film with the “Part One” tag added on. Despite the marketing and runtime that is longer than the musical it’s based on (not including intermission)  Wicked is indeed a part one. Despite my skepticism of this adaptation, very early reports are indicating that it might actually be good. Like, really good. This is all anecdotal, of course, but if Chu and the team could pull off a critically successful adaptation of a beloved musical, Wicked just might come out of nowhere and crash the Oscars. We already know the box office support will be behind it, which could propel it to several nominations. Similar to some other films, Wicked’s best nomination package includes a Director nomination for Jon Chu. Imagine the coordination and vision required to make a spectacle like this happen. This is still not quite at the top of my predictions, but I firmly believe the path is there for Chu and several other folks involved in this production. 

On The Bubble

Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

MUBI’s box office darling, The Substance, keeps plugging along in theaters despite releasing two months ago, which feels like an eternity in today’s theatrical window. Working off of a $17.5 million budget, it has picked up over $50 million worldwide in its theatrical run. The Substance is big, loud, and bold, with a lot of attention being directed at Demi Moore and Coralie Fargeat. Regrettably, it does appear that Fargeat is our only hope of having a non-male director in the category this time around, but she does seem to be gaining some momentum. Fargeat is more than deserving of the recognition, and seeing multiple nominations for this film would be a welcome shake-up of what kinds of films typically get nominated by the Academy. Hopefully, MUBI can put together a strong campaign for Moore, Fargeat, and some of the technical awards like Makeup and Hairstyling or Costumes and break the mold of the classical “Oscar movie” in the process. 

Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

Greg Kwedar’s understated yet effective direction in Sing Sing is truly a work of art, and he is more than deserving of a spot in the nomination lineup this year. Unfortunately for him, A24’s rollout and campaign for the film as a whole has been elusive and confusing. Almost everyone who has seen Sing Sing loves it, but that number is definitely less than ideal. With the strategy thus far, Kwedar’s campaign is likely one of the first to fall off compared to the Best Picture and acting categories but is likely to have a strong push as we get closer to nomination day. A24 has  stretched itself a little thin with the acquisitions of The Brutalist and Queer, both films that have aspirations of making a splash this awards season. I still think Kwedar’s work is strong enough to find a way in when it’s all said and done, but the road to a nomination narrows as each day goes by. 

Edward Berger, Conclave

Papal shenanigans abound in Edward Berger’s follow-up to his critically acclaimed adaptation of All Quiet on the Western Front, a film that propelled him to a level of prestige and acclaim that had all eyes looking forward to his next project. Conclave continues the pattern of absolute technical mastery, utilizing amazing production design, camera work, and score to bring a lot of weight to an adaptation of an airport thriller. Berger gets amazing performances out of his main cast and has crafted a very approachable, crowd-pleasing film that could line up a lot of nominations. Berger’s odds of earning a second best director nomination are pretty high just two weeks after its wide release, but I still have him outside my top five. There’s something missing from Conclave that’s hard to put words to, but it’s more likely that the crafts and performances get recognized without Berger joining in the fun. 

RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys

In a just world, RaMell Ross would be squarely in the top three of this race, with Nickel Boys being an absolute stroke of genius that only he could produce. Ross’ first foray into narrative feature follows a young black teenager throughout his life after being sent to a juvenile detention camp in Florida for being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Nickel Boys is powerful and its message is potent. Ross’s direction style could not be more singular than in this film, with camera techniques and narrative choices that do much more than just bring the Colson Whitehead novel to the big screen. This is one of the most incredible achievements by a director this century, and it may fall short of recognition for its headiness and unique perspective. Some may call it pretentious, but it’s impossible to deny Ross’s amazing work with this film. As it positions itself for a late December wide release, there’s an opportunity for Ross to pick up steam at the end of the race. 

Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

The hardest cut from my top five is Mohammad Rasoulof for his work on The Seed of the Sacred Fig. The film follows a family in Tehran led by a man who works as an investigating judge for the country’s corrupt court system in the midst of social and political unrest. The risks that Rousalof took to make this film should be worthy of garnering him a nomination. They had to film secretly every few days just to finish the film, and he has since been exiled as an enemy of the state. This film simply wouldn’t exist without his efforts and creative mind, and the narrative he puts forward has a sense of urgency that none of the other contenders gets relatively close to. His ability to get global themes across through the lens of a more contained family drama is truly amazing. Despite everything going for it, there might be stronger domestic narratives outside the film’s control that keep it at bay. Most predictors have Rasoulof between four and nine on their Best Director lists, and I’m not sure what the hesitancy is here. I’m hopeful that people are underestimating the international shift the Academy has made over the past few years, and Rasoulof can ultimately find himself rewarded for his work.  

Strongest Contenders

Sean Baker, Anora

So far, Anora seems unstoppable. From its Palme d’Or victory at Cannes to its rapturous response at the fall festivals, Sean Baker appears to have burst through with this film. Baker’s one-of-a-kind sensibilities and repeated highlighting of sex workers have kept most of his films out of the awards conversation. Still, there’s something about Anora that’s captured audiences of all kinds over the past six months. He proved he could deliver the same level of greatness with a higher budget. I don’t think this is his strongest directorial outing, but the overwhelming support for the film will likely be enough to land him a nomination. 

Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

It’s official: the Gladiator II hype train is welcoming passengers aboard, and I bought a first-class ticket. Scott’s late work has certainly had mixed reviews, but there’s been a lot of good in these otherwise flawed films. Early reactions indicate a potential return to form for Scott, which could pave the way to his fourth Best Director nomination. If Gladiator II proves to be a cinematic spectacle like its predecessor, a lot of below-the-line support and a lifetime of goodwill for Ridley Scott will lead to double-digit nominations for the film. An important piece of the puzzle here is that Denzel Washington has been getting a lot of predictions for Best Supporting Actor, even more than Scott for Director. Audiences are taking the movie seriously, which was one of the big questions heading into its release. 

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Having been the first real contender of the year, you’d think that Villeneuve would have fallen out of the race a long time ago as more films get seen. Yet, here we are. The support for Dune: Part II and his direction has stayed surprisingly strong, weathering every storm that’s come its way. This may have as much to do with the strategies of other campaigns as it does with Dune’s success. Films that think they have a strong chance at winning Best Picture have been hesitant to take too strong a lead early in the year, not wanting to lose steam along the long road to Oscars night. This has left Dune as the frontrunner in several categories, even this late in the year. I simply can’t fathom Villeneuve being left out at this point. Of course, things may shift as more releases come, but the strong indications are that he will receive his second Best Director nomination. 

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez

As Jacques Audiard’s French-produced, Spanish-spoken musical Emilia Perez continues to dazzle audiences in its festival world tour, it’s becoming abundantly clear that Audiard is one of the top competitors for Best Director. He’s been a staple of French cinema since the 1970s and has finally made a film receiving wide international acclaim. It will be interesting to see how it’s received upon its wider release, but it keeps picking up strong supporters at every stop. Audiard’s vision is bold and audacious and provides strong performances from Zoe Saldaña and Karla Sofía Gascón. There has been a strong reception to the film itself as well as the musical numbers featuring many Best Original Song contenders. As we’ve seen over the past few years, at least one of the Best Director nominees winds up coming from an international film, and Audiard is most likely to be the representative this go around. 

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

The Brutalist, much like Oppenheimer, seems undeniable on many fronts. It’s not so much that it’s dominating every category like Oppenheimer, but more that it is a masterpiece and an outstanding achievement by the director. Corbet’s fingerprints can be seen in every frame of the 3.5-hour runtime. The scale, craftsmanship, and performances are difficult to ignore, even if some plot points might not sit right with everyone in the third act. It’s difficult to describe The Brutalist’s successes to those who haven’t seen it yet. It’s slow, but not boring. It’s meticulous, but riveting at every turn. I was on the edge of my seat watching two men discuss brutalist architecture for minutes at a time. Corbet is a lock to make the field for Best Director, and I think he will be difficult to unseat at the top of the pile. 

There’s still about five months to go until the Academy Awards, and momentum shifts for all these films are bound to happen. The shortlist has certainly gotten shorter over the past couple of months, but the films discussed above are built for the long haul of awards season. Be sure to check out each of these films as they become available so you can follow along with the race and be outraged on nomination day like the rest of us.