Sports gambling and handicapping have infiltrated every part of our society, so why not apply it to awards prognostication? The runaway critical and commercial success of Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey warrants an analysis of its potential Oscar chances. So I took it upon myself to handicap each Oscar category and how likely it is to garner a nomination.
Best Picture -10000
Who are we kidding here? 94% from Rotten Tomatoes critics, 97% RT audience score, 88 on Metacritic, heading towards $1 billion in earnings with no signs of slowing down. The Oscars never jump at the chance to reward populist hits, but this one is undeniable. I see no world where one of the ten spots doesn’t go to this film.
Best Director, Christopher Nolan -2000
Nolan has a whole lot going for him, most notably a previous Best Director win and the universal praise from everyone involved in the film. The only thing holding me back from putting this higher is the limited lineup. Cracking the Best Picture ten isn’t much of a struggle with this sort of acclaim and box office, but landing in a more limited five is a tougher nut to crack. That being said, I think everyone would be profoundly shocked if Nolan missed out.
Best Actor, Matt Damon +350
Damon has been around so consistently for the last 30 years, it’s a bit shocking he has only received three acting nominations (plus two others, including a win for Original Screenplay). His performance has been lauded for his steady hand more than his overwhelming ability. That being said, he is still a welcome sight on a press tour and knows how to press the flesh. I wouldn’t consider him a long shot for a nomination, but a snub would be less of a surprise than a Margot Robbie in Barbie.
Best Supporting Actress, Anne Hathaway -250
Much like Damon, it seems like Hathaway should have more than just her two Oscar nominations and one victory. With her role as Penelope, Hathaway finally gets her chance to shine in a widely-seen film where she blows her co-stars off the screen. The Odyssey might have a few standout scenes, but not many involve capital-A acting. Hathaway is the exception. It also helps that this film is one of five big-screen releases in 2026. It’s a reward for her performance and her body of work. I wouldn’t consider her the runaway favorite, but she’s the leader in the clubhouse at the moment.
Best Supporting Actress, Samantha Morton +250
Also, with a pair of previous Oscar nominations, Morton cemented her contender status with less than 10 minutes of screen time as the conflicted witch Circe. Many singled Morton out as the acting MVP, though she has an uphill battle. Her limited screen time is easy to lose in the midst of a three-hour epic, while she may also have to battle her more famous co-stars competing in the same category. I could see a world where she sneaks into the fifth spot as long as the precursor attention is there. I currently have her eighth, but that could change quickly if some of the buzzier titles fizzle out.
Best Supporting Actor, John Leguizamo +750
While his more famous co-stars like Robert Pattinson and Tom Holland were unable to make much of a critical dent, Leguizamo managed the premiere male supporting role and earned some of the best notices of his career. The Oscars are often about narratives, and few people have a better overdue narrative than Leguizamo. Supporting Actor is an extremely stacked category, filled with powerhouses and a bevy of “overdue” actors. I think this will be a tough nut for Leguizamo to crack.
Best Adapted Screenplay, Christopher Nolan +500
Despite the near-universal praise for the film, Nolan’s script is probably the most harshly criticized aspect of it. Despite three previous Screenplay nominations, Nolan’s scripting faces an uphill battle to garner a fourth. Swords-and-sandals epics aren’t exactly known for garnering Screenplay mentions, and this one should be no different.
Best Original Song, “When I’m Home” +400
This is a tough one. Rap songs are not immune to Oscar nominations, but they also tend to be films about rap or black-centric storylines. This is obviously neither, so Travis Scott, Ludwig Goransson, and James Blake should have an uphill climb to a nomination. I would expect the song to land in the Oscar shortlist, but I would be frankly surprised if it ended up in the final five.
Best Cinematography/Best Costume Design/Best Film Editing/Best Makeup and Hairstyling/Best Original Score/Best Production Design/Best Sound -2000
Let’s not kid ourselves here. If you think there is a world where The Odyssey misses any of these categories, that is a world of delusion.
Best Casting, John Papsidera -5000
Despite the newness of the category, this is far too much cast for the Academy to ignore. This is also Papsidera’s first chance to be recognized after his career-long collaboration with Nolan.
We still have another five months to find out, but make sure to bookmark this page so you can all ridicule me in January!
