The Palme d’Or is the prestigious award given to a film at the Cannes Film Festival in France. Winning this award can significantly raise a film’s profile early in the year and make it a must-see for audiences worldwide. Recently, it has also become an award that leads to Oscar success.
However, this was not always the case. Before 2019, only two films — The Lost Weekend (1945), when the top prize was known as the Grand Prix rather than the Palm d’Or, and “Marty” (1955) — won both the top prize at Cannes and the Oscar for Best Picture. Even in the 21st century, the Palme d’Or did not guarantee Oscar recognition; from 2000 to 2018, only three films — The Pianist (2001), The Tree of Life (2011), and Amour (2013) — managed to convert their Cannes success into a Best Picture nomination.
Yet, ever since Parasite won the Palme d’Or in 2019 and went on to win Best Picture in 2020, the award has increasingly seemed like a catalyst for Oscar success. Now, it almost guarantees that the film winning the Palme d’Or will appear on the Academy’s ballots the following year. Since 2019, including Parasite, 4 winning films have gone on to be nominated for Best Picture – Triangle of Sadness (2022), Anatomy of a Fall (2023), Anora (2024), which went on to win Best Picture. In just 6 years, there were more Palme d’Or Best Picture nominees than in the 18 before, and it marks a trend in an Academy-friendly direction for the coveted film festival.
This year, Christian Mungiu’s Fjord left Cannes with the Palme d’Or, and given the early Oscar buzz the film was getting beforehand, this win all but locks up a nomination for the Romanian drama. Fjord tells the story of a Romanian-Norwegian conservative family who move to the mother’s Norwegian hometown. Upon arriving in the Norwegian village, the family comes under scrutiny and is investigated by the local Norwegian judicial system.
Assuming Fjord has a Best Picture nomination locked up, the focus now turns to how many other nominations the film can receive. Writer/director Christian Mungiu has yet to break through at the Oscars. His previous film, R.M.N., was highly rated in 2022, earning a staggering 97% on Rotten Tomatoes, but it never gained significant awards traction. His previous 2007 Palme d’Or-winning film, 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days, earned the director critical acclaim and a Golden Globe nomination for Best Foreign Language Film. But, that didn’t translate into any wins or Oscar nominations. So, while the filmmaker has yet to breakthrough with The Academy, it is evident that Mungiu has a strong portfolio, and has been on the cusp of an Oscar nomination for quite some time. Alongside Best Picture, it is safe to say he will be nominated not just for Best Director but also for Best Original Screenplay. The directors’ branch has consistently nominated a foreign director who has yet to receive a nomination. In Original Screenplay, each winner since 2020 has won this award while also being nominated for Best Director. It seems as though now more than ever, filmmakers are being awarded for writing and directing their films – each Best Director winner this decade also wrote the screenplay for their films – and Mungiu, having writing and directing credits, falls in line with the current trend, making both of these nominations slam dunk picks.
It’s also safe to say Fjord will pick up a nomination for Best International Feature, with Romania or Norway likely to submit the film for contention. The 2019 documentary Colectiv became the first, and only, Romanian film to receive a nomination for Best International Film in 2021; Norway has had a better showing, even winning the award last year for Sentimental Value. However, because Fjord won the Palme D’Or, under the new guidelines set forth by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, it becomes immediately eligible in the Best International Film category alongside Yellow Letters (Golden Bear, Berlin) and Shame and Money (World Cinema – Dramatic, Sundance). So, even if there were a chance either country would opt to go a different route with their submission (crazier things have happened in the past), Fjord would still be a contender, making this nomination another virtual lock.
Renate Reinsve followed up her star-making performance in The Worst Person in the World, with last year’s Best International Feature winner, Sentimental Value. The actress is now looking to earn another Best Actress nomination for playing Lisbet Gheorghiu. She is already being labeled the early favorite in Best Actress. Alongside her is Sebastian Stan as Mihai Gheorghiu. Stan is an actor who has been in the industry for far longer than his co-star but has only managed one nomination for his performance as Donald Trump in 2024’s The Apprentice. The actor has spoken about his longing to make a film in Romanian, and it seems his chance might earn him a second Best Actor nomination. It seems likely that there is a spot waiting on the ballot for these two actors in their respective categories.
While it is still early to tell whether Fjord will stand the test of the year and come out with Oscar gold in the end, winning the Palme d’Or is a massive boost for the film, cementing itself as one of the earliest Oscar favorites of 2026.
Fjord Oscar Predictions:
- Best Picture
- Best Director
- Best Actress
- Best Actor
- Best Original Screenplay
- Best International Film
