Here we are, once again, at the intersection between Oscar prognostication and degenerate gambling. Like I did with The Odyssey, I will be handicapping the Oscar chances of the much-derided effort of Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Digger. I would also like to remind you this is my own opinion and not meant to be taken as actual bookmaking odds.
BEST PICTURE +1500
While it might have been an early-season favorite with the combination of Tom Cruise and Iñárritu, the critical drubbing will not do the film any favors. Often, a film can survive critical derision, as long as the public can get behind it. It doesn’t look like audiences will have that effect on this film. The polarizing reviews might help it a little, as the ones who like the film really like it. At this point, I would be shocked if it even got a Comedy/Musical nomination at the Golden Globes
BEST ACTOR, TOM CRUISE +500
When you are talking about what the Oscars want from their nominees, it’s big movie stars doing big things. That’s exactly what Cruise does in Digger. On the campaign side, Cruise is certainly out there pressing the flesh, but his credibility in awards circles certainly isn’t what it once was. Despite three previous nominations, he missed out on a Best Actor nod for Top Gun: Maverick back in 2022 and hasn’t been nominated for acting in 26 years. Some critics have singled him out for his work, but he should be seen as a longshot at this point. Only a resurgent series of awards from critic’s groups could resurrect his chances now.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, RIZ AHMED +750
While the rest of the film’s supporting cast have quickly been dismissed, Ahmed has somehow made it through relatively unscathed, while also receiving multiple “best in show” acclaims. Already an Oscar winner and a previous nominee, his campaign accumen and good standing in the industry might get him further than most, but I would still consider his chances a longshot at best.
BEST DIRECTOR, ALEJANDRO G. INARRITU +2000
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY +2500
Cruise might be the face of the film, but the two-time Oscar-winning director is the one who is driving the ship. Following the divisive response to Bardo, any problems with this film were bound to be laid directly at his feet. Best Director is a quagmire of critical and probable audience acclaim, so Iñárritu will have to be happy with his two previous awards and sit this season out. The scripting team will suffer the same fate. No critic is going to give the script credit while shutting out the rest of the film.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN +250
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING -125
For all the faults the film might have, the set decoration and makeup effects have been continually lauded. Without delving into spoilers, the production design and set decoration is a vital part of the plot mechanisms. Nothing feels over CGI, unless it’s supposed to feel that way. It’s a monumental achievement, but I would venture it can get lost in the shuffle when it comes to the end of the year awards. Films like this generally don’t get a single nomination for something like Production Design without corresponding nominations elsewhere.
The makeup has a similar trajectory, but with a caveat. If Cruise manages to sneak his way into Best Actor, then you can write in a Makeup nomination in pen. In the last five years, Best Actor nominees and winners such as Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Austin Butler (Elvis), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) have all accompanied their own nominations with nods for the Makeup team. This is probably Digger’s best hope at a solo nomination.
It’s a tall task ahead of the entire film, but you never know what can shake out in the midst of Oscar season.
