The time has come, and Oscar nomination morning is right around the corner (as of now, the nominations will be announced on January 23 at 5:30 a.m. PT). Still, even though we’re only a few days from figuring out who is in and who is out, many categories feel chaotic, including the Supporting Actor category. The supporting actor category has undergone many changes over the past few months; what once felt like a safe category quickly flipped to pandemonium.
This category currently stands with Kieran Culkin, Yura Borisov, and Edward Norton out front. These three are the only Supporting Actor contenders that picked up nominations with all four major precursors: the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Critics Choice Association (CCA), Golden Globes (GG), and The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) Culkin won the Golden Globe. These are our top three, and there is a reasonable belief that any of them can win. For Norton, A Complete Unknown is overperforming in above and below-the-line categories and could lead, or be close to the leader, in terms of overall nominations. Norton has never won an Oscar, even though he has been nominated three times, and this could be the time when the Academy throws him a bone in a movie they greatly enjoy. He also has the privilege of playing opposite a strong Best Actor contender in Timothee Chalamet, not as an enemy, but as a friend. While A Complete Unknown is about Bob Dylan, it is more about folk music as a whole, and Norton’s first appearance in the film shows the command he will eventually have throughout. I don’t think this will ultimately happen, but I’m confident a nomination will come, so there’s always a chance.
If there is a race, it will be between Kieran Culkin and Yura Borisov, two actors with vastly different narratives, but both can still win. For Culkin, we have a child star who gained recognition throughout the years before genuinely breaking out with HBO’s Succession, where he not only stood toe to toe with the likes of Brian Cox but eventually outshined the entire cast, winning a majority of the awards (SAG and Emmy among to name a few) for his performance in the show’s final season. Culkin has been a wrecking ball this season and has the most critics and industry wins of any actor in any category thus far (29 by the time of writing this article). He hasn’t missed a nomination anywhere and will likely ride this train to the Oscar stage.
However, we can’t entirely count out Yura Borisov just yet. His nuanced performance in Anora vastly differs from Culkin’s bombastic one in A Real Pain, which also plays to his Oscar journey. Borisov is a well-known actor internationally but has never acted in an English-language film until this one. The title for Best Picture is up in the air as multiple films still have a good shot at winning, with Anora being one of them; however, Culkin’s A Real Pain doesn’t quite share that sentiment, and even a nomination for the film is still questionable. If A Real Pain finds a spot among the Best Picture lineup, I don’t think there’s much that Borisov can do to win. Still, a missed nomination creates an exciting scenario as there have only been five occasions since 2000 when a Supporting Actor winner came from a film not nominated for Best Picture, and there have been seven times since 2000 when the winner of this category was also in the Best Picture winner. Realistically, Culkin will take the prize at the end of the day like he has so many times before; however, it would be ignorant to say that Borisov doesn’t have a chance, especially when the Supporting Actor winner and Picture winner have lined up for the past three years.
With the easy predictions out of the way, let’s move on to the final two slots, one of which firmly belongs to Guy Pearce. Did he miss the SAG nomination? Yes, but so did many others who don’t have the same resume that he does in terms of nominations and The Brutalist’s overall power this season. Like Borisov, The Brutalist is still one of the frontrunners that could win Best Picture, and Pearce plays a prominent role in the film, being what could be considered the main antagonist. Pearce has had a long career and has never been recognized by the Academy, which plays a factor. A snub is possible but unlikely.
This takes us to the final spot, which is between three people. First, you have Clarence Maclin, who was thrown a massive British lifeline by picking up a BAFTA nomination after missing both the SAG and the Globe. Sing Sing is a film that has been all over the place for the entire awards season; at one point, it was heralded as a guaranteed Best Picture win and is now fighting for a nomination. Colman Domingo is safely in the Lead Actor category, and the screenplay might also be secure. Still, the film not showing up at the Globes, SAG, BAFTA, or PGA is a telling factor regarding how people in the industry feel about it. While he did get a BAFTA nomination, they also nominated six actors in the category, and arguably, he might have been the sixth. I won’t count out a nomination for him, as maybe the film has more passion than it seems, but I don’t think it’s likely.
Next, there’s Denzel Washington for his role in Gladiator II. While Gladiator II wasn’t the most beloved film of the year, it was almost unanimous that people left loving Denzel’s performance. However, he has even been all over the place regarding precursor nominations. After picking up Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations, he missed a nomination for the BAFTA (which isn’t too shocking considering he has never been nominated for a BAFTA) and SAG. Gladiator II, as a whole, isn’t performing well either, as there is a real possibility that the Oscar nomination morning will come and go without mentioning the film once. With all that being said, he is still Denzel Washington, the same actor nominated for nine acting Oscars, winning two of them. He has picked up nominations for far less performing films and is an easy name to write down for a voter. A nomination isn’t as strong as once felt, but you can’t ever count out Denzel.
Ultimately, though, I believe Jeremy Strong will hear his name called among the nominees—an early heavyweight out of Cannes whose campaign has been everywhere since. The entirety of The Apprentice seemed to be Sebastian Stan or bust, but then, as campaigning began to kick up, it felt more likely that this film was being pushed away due to the subject matter. Then, both Stan and Strong earned nominations at the Golden Globes and BAFTA, with Strong also finding a way in at SAG. For Jeremy Strong, this means he earned a nomination at three major precursors and could even pick up a nomination without his co-star getting one. To me, this shows that there is support for not only him but his performance as well, and maybe Strong and Stan aren’t as much of a package deal as they once seemed to be. Getting the BAFTA and the SAG nominations makes me believe he will get his first Oscar nomination and round out the list of five.
Predicted Nominees:
- Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
- Yura Borisov, Anora
- Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
- Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
- Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Next Up:
- Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
- Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
