Thursday, February 13, 2025

Chasing the Gold: Final Oscar Predictions (Best Adapted Screenplay)

The 97th Academy Awards, set for Sunday, March 2, have not (yet) been postponed due to the tragic wildfires that have engulfed much of Los Angeles and its surrounding areas since the first few days of 2025. Voting for nominations and the announcement of this year’s nominees, however, have been extended and delayed once again, respectively, out of sensitivity for the city and some of the Academy’s members who have been directly impacted by the fires. (Four governors and a former CEO lost their homes, The Hollywood Reporter reported on Monday, January 13.) The new dates and times for the folks keeping track at home are as follows:

  • Nomination window: Began at noon ET on Wednesday, January 8, now runs through 8 p.m. ET on Friday, January 17 (Previously slated to end at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 14, and at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 12 before that first extension.)
  • Nomination announcement: This will now take place at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, January 23 (Originally scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, January 17.)

Elsewhere, though, awards season surges forward, as does its coverage. The Directors Guild of America announced its nominations on Wednesday, January 8, and has yet to push back their awards ceremony (Sunday, February 8); the Screen Actors Guild announced their nominations that same day, and while the body canceled its live presentation of said nominations, the SAG Awards remain scheduled for Sunday, February 23; on the morning of Wednesday, January 15, the annually-awful BAFTA nominations were announced. The less said about those, the better. 

Most recently – and for the purposes of this article, most importantly – came the nominations for Best Original and Adapted Screenplay from the Writers Guild of America. Given that my focus for Chasing the Gold is on Adapted Screenplay, I’ll only note those nominees, though eligibility-related omissions are of note across the board: A Complete UnknownDune: Part TwoHit ManNickel Boys, and Wicked made up the crop here. Notably absent titles include the Golden Globe-winning ConclaveSing SingI’m Still Here, and Emilia Pérez, all because they were either produced outside of the guild’s collective bargaining agreement or written by a non-union member.

Despite how focusing on these precursors as we look forward to the Oscars is how many of those working in the film journalism make a living, all of this talk – he types while gesturing wildly into open space – leaves awards prognosticators feeling queasy. Phrases like “the show must go on” should not (and do not) apply to live-streamed events unfolding amidst horrifying disasters that have taken homes and lives, as if those things aren’t slightly synonymous on their own. Then again, curiosity persists, and if it’s enough to distract those in need of one the most, I suppose predicting the nominees in this year’s Best Adapted Screenplay field is worthwhile. 

ON THE OUTSIDE, LOOKING IN:

Dune: Part Two (Denis Villeneuve and Jon Spaihts; based on the 1965 novel “Dune” by Frank Herbert)

The second half of Denis Villeneuve’s sprawling science fiction epic has been all but blanked this awards season, a frustrating fate for one of 2024’s great cinematic achievements despite how franchise flicks tend to fare at the Oscars. If there’s any point of comparison for Dune: Part Two eking out a nomination here, it might be worth pointing to Top Gun: Maverick and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, both of which received nods in this category at the Academy’s 95th ceremony in 2023, or even to 2021’s Dune, which received a nomination here. Then again, both of those former films were legacy sequels of a kind, not precise second chapters of a continuing story like this one; plus, the first film came in a pandemic-impacted year. The best chance for a Dune film triumphing in above-the-line realms will come in a few years when Dune: Messiah – the presumed final film in Villeneuve’s Timothée Chalamet-led trilogy – could have its own Return of the King moment.

Hit Man (Richard Linklater and Glen Powell; based on the 2001 Texas Monthly article “Hit Man” by Skip Hollandsworth)

Could 2024’s best rom-com be improbably surging in this category? Let’s look at the facts: For starters, Richard Linklater is a two-time previous nominee (although both nominations came for his Before trilogy sequels, co-written with stars Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy). Glen Powell, being a co-author of Hit Man’s script with Linklater, could do it a favor, given the former’s rising stardom and boundless likeability – insofar as those are worthwhile qualities for Academy voters to consider. Perhaps the most crucial piece of information is that their script was nominated by the Writers Guild, but it’s once again imperative to mention that a number of films that have been considered frontrunners (or at least eventual nominees) were ruled ineligible, leaving a spot for Linklater and Powell to work their way into the fold. If the same happens at the Academy Awards, it will be a pleasant, unexpected surprise, with an emphasis on “unexpected.”

Nosferatu (Robert Eggers; based on the 1922 film Nosferatu: A Symphony of Horror, written by Henrik Galeen) 

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences was founded in 1927, making it five years too late to honor F.W. Murnau’s 1922 masterpiece upon its release. The same fate appears to be inbound for Robert Eggers’ rendition, as it has missed out on any Adapted Screenplay honors from groups not made up entirely of critics. (It was nominated in the category by the Chicago Film Critics Association and the Alliance of Women Film Journalists). Alas, one of the foremost horror auteurs of his generation will have to settle for having made a critically lauded work that is one of the year’s best films

Wicked (Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox; based on the musical “Wicked” by Holzman and Stephen Schwartz, and the 1995 novel “Wicked: The Life and Times of the Wicked Witch of the West” by Gregory Maguire)

Of the four films on my “outside looking in” list, Wicked inexplicably stands the best chance at nabbing a nomination for its screenplay. Alright, fine, so it isn’t all that inexplicable, my personal bias be damned: The musical has been an undeniable awards-season juggernaut thus far. And while most of its nominations and/or wins have not been for its script, Holzman and Fox did receive an Adapted Screenplay nomination from the Writers Guild of America (alongside Dune: Part Two and Hit Man, as aforementioned). But the reasons I’ve left it out of my predictive top five have more to do with where it has missed. It failed to garner a nomination at the Golden Globes – never mind the fact that the category there groups all screenplays together – and the BAFTAs, two major precursors for the Academy Awards. It could sneak in here; I’m betting it won’t.

THE PREDICTED NOMINEES:

A Complete Unknown (James Mangold and Jay Cocks; based on the 2015 book “Dylan Goes Electric!” by Elijah Wald)

Nominations from the WGA and the BAFTAs serve as huge boosts for Mangold and Cocks’ Bob Dylan biopic, a project that had “Best Adapted Screenplay” nominee written all over it long before it was released… maybe even before it was greenlit. Who are we kidding: The true (albeit far-too familiar) story of the greatest songwriter of all time’s rise to fame, complete with Timothée Chalamet wearing a prosthetic nose and learning guitar to bring Dylan’s lyrics to life? It may not be a shoo-in, but it’s most definitely a shoo-nom.

Conclave (Peter Straughan; based on the 2016 novel “Conclave” by Robert Harris)

This year, the Golden Globes’ “Best Screenplay” category was populated by five original works and one work of adaptation – the latter is the script that won. Not only is Conclave a certain nominee at the Oscars, but Peter Straughan should be favored to take home the statuette on March 2.

Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard; based on the opera libretto “Emilia Pérez” by Jacques Audiard, which was loosely adapted from the 2018 novel “Écoute” by Boris Razon)

I still can’t figure out Emilia Pérez. Why people love it confounds me; why people defend it is even more baffling; why anyone voluntarily watched it outside of a festival setting is perhaps the most mystifying of all. Nonetheless, it has been the most dominant title this season, periodically sweeping up tens of nominations from awards bodies and critics groups alike, and Audiard’s screenplay is practically certain to go noticed by the Academy, too. If it wins, I wonder if this category’s presenters will announce it by saying, “From penis to vaginaaaaa, it’s Emilia Pérez!” (Related: God help us if it wins.)

Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes; based on the 2019 novel “The Nickel Boys” by Colson Whitehead)

The best work of adaptation to be released this year – not to mention the film of the year – should be winning here, yet there’s a chance it misses out on a nomination entirely. Should that happen, voting bodies will have done RaMell Ross’ masterpiece a disservice far beyond the lengths of how Nickel Boys has already been treated by bodies including (but not limited to) the BAFTAs, the Producers Guild, the Screen Actors Guild, and the Golden Globes. At least it was nominated for something by the latter group. That the Writers Guild included it in its five nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay gives me hope that the Academy will have a similar amount of sense and enough decency to recognize its brilliance with the top honor. 

Sing Sing (Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley; based on the 2005 Esquire article “The Sing Sing Follies” by John H. Richardson, and the musical “Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code” by Brent Buell)

Speaking of decency: Among 2024’s most urgent and heartful films also had one of its strongest screenplays, a true story about the Rehabilitation Through the Arts program at Upstate New York’s Sing Sing Maximum Security Prison brought to life by many formerly-incarcerated alumni of the program. The most heralded among them has been Clarence “Divine Eye” Maclin, who – along with John “Divine G” Whitfield – receives a “story by” co-credit with director Greg Kwedar and his co-writer, Clint Bentley. It’s an emotional meal of a film, its dialogue delivering regularly scheduled wallops to the soul. Like Nickel Boys, it’s a work that deserves plaudits beyond Oscar nominations, but receiving notice from the Academy wouldn’t be a half-bad start.

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