Whether you love or hate him, Adam Sandler ranks among the most successful comedic actors ever. Although only one of his films has exceeded $500 million in global box office sales, he has amassed over $3 billion in total worldwide box office revenue. Sandler is a recognizable figure, and in today’s Hollywood, where there are fewer stars than ever, especially ones that can sell a film on name recognition alone, he remains a standout presence. Widely known and seemingly admired by colleagues, one would think that he would have more success in securing industry awards. Yet, he has failed to receive an Oscar nomination, or frankly, many nominations at all, for any of his performances. However, Noah Baumbach’s latest movie, Jay Kelly, might be the film that finally earns Sandler his first nomination, and possibly even a win.
It’s not surprising that Sandler hasn’t received an Oscar nomination, considering the films he’s made throughout his career. His standout roles in Billy Madison, Happy Gilmore, The Wedding Singer, The Waterboy, and Big Daddy solidified his status as a recognizable figure in the 1990s, celebrated both as a comedian and as a leading man in romantic comedies. However, these films didn’t scream awards-caliber in either performance or overall quality. They are seen as comedy classics, but they didn’t display Sandler as a quality actor in the eyes of voters. Aware of Sandler’s potential, Paul Thomas Anderson cast him in Punch-Drunk Love, his follow-up to his highly acclaimed and nominated film, Magnolia. For his performance as Barry Egan, Sandler earned his 1st major award nomination at the 2003 Golden Globe Awards. Nevertheless, he chose not to pursue prestigious roles with auteur directors at that stage of his career. By this point, Sandler had gained enough recognition to pursue projects that aligned with his interests. It became a bit of a running joke, but he would invite his friends to a luxurious resort, where they would film a movie while enjoying their time together. Although many of these films lacked critical acclaim, they typically did well at the box office and through word-of-mouth, enabling Sandler to fund the next “vacation” for himself and his pals. However, the same actor who starred in Punch-Drunk Love for the esteemed PTA still existed, and even without collaborating with the most celebrated directors, there were instances when Sandler delivered impressive performances in films that may not have garnered critical or commercial success. Regardless of the respective film’s outcome, his roles in Spanglish, Reign Over Me,, Funny People, and even parts of Click demonstrated that Sandler continued to have as much to offer as a serious actor.
In the late 2010s, other directors recognized Sandler’s talents as PTA had before, and his increasing self-assurance led him to pursue more substantial roles. 2019’s Uncut Gems is widely regarded as the tour de force performance that established him as an actor with serious chops. The Safdie Brothers’ manic anxiety-driven dramedy about a gambling addicted jewelry dealer was so brash and heart-racing that it caused many walk-outs because it wasn’t an “Adam Sandler movie” as audiences believed it would be. However, this film was not only critically and commercially successful – at the time it was the highest-grossing A24 film – it was also the first time Sandler had begun to receive genuine Oscar consideration. In his role as Howard Ratner, he received lead actor nominations at both the Gotham Awards and the Critics’ Choice Awards, won at the National Board of Review (NBR) and the Independent Spirit Awards, and garnered numerous wins and nominations from critic groups. Unlike his previous acclaim for Punch-Drunk Love, after which he reverted to his comedic style, Sandler has embraced more nuanced dramatic roles, culminating in his first-ever Screen Actors Guild (SAG) nomination for 2022’s Hustle. Although his latest film, Spaceman, may not have achieved the success many (myself included) anticipated, his delicate and subdued performance stood out as one of its best aspects.
He previously received consideration for Noah Baumbach’s 2017 film The Meyerowitz Stories, as, after its release at Cannes, the idea of Sandler being an Oscar nominee was floated around in early predictions and reviews. This year, Sandler is reuniting with Noah Baumbach for Jay Kelly, starring alongside Oscar winners George Clooney and Laura Dern, along with Greta Gerwig, Billy Crudup, Emily Mortimer, Patrick Wilson, and Riley Keough. Calling this cast loaded would be an understatement; however, among all of the talent this film has to offer, Adam Sandler has emerged as the early favorite of the actors most likely to earn an Oscar nomination. Directed by Baumbach and written by Baumbach and Emily Mortimer, Jay Kelly follows a friendship between an aging actor, played by Clooney, and his manager, played by Sandler. Clooney is the clear lead of the film playing the titular Jay Kelly, but Sandler is close behind as he not only received second billing, but was also the focal point of one of the film’s two main posters. The recent trailer focused primarily on Clooney (who is back in the Oscar race himself for the first time in quite a while) questioning his place as an actor, but also included Sandler reminding the aging actor how much he means to people. The trailer already seems to be heartfelt, but Clooney also recently all but confirmed a spectacular performance is coming in a recent interview where he calls Sandler a “beautiful, wonderful actor,” mentioning that he made sure people on set took him seriously as an actor and not just a goofy comedian.
However, if Sandler continues to challenge perceptions seriously, it’s not a question of if he’ll be nominated, but when. While it is unlikely that he will earn any awards buzz for reprising his role as Happy Gilmore in Happy Gilmore 2; even if Jay Kelly doesn’t earn him his first nomination, it seems as though the Sandman is moving in the right direction. His project with the Safdie Brothers has been paused, as Josh focuses on Marty Supreme and Benny on The Smashing Machine, though it appears to still be in development. Both films mentioned above have already been garnering awards buzz this season, so the second Sandler/Safdie collab could have more award heft to it than their previous collaboration. He doesn’t currently have any other projects in the works, but during his press run for TÁR, director Todd Field mentioned that Sandler’s performance in Punch-Drunk Love is “one of the great screen performances of all time,” noting he would love to work with the actor. While nothing has been formally announced yet, it suggests that prolific directors view Sandler as more than the loud SNL funnyman who makes vacation movies; they see him as a serious actor with the chops to carry a film.
Sandler is emerging as one of the standout performers this year. In early predictions for Supporting Actor, sources like Next Best Picture have Sandler second, AwardsWatch ranks him as high as third. At the same time, the Awards Expert app community also places him in second. Supporting Actor consistently proves to be one of the most competitive categories at the awards, and it seems like this year is no exception. Sandler will not only contend with his fellow ensemble cast members but also face stiff competition from Paul Mescal (The History of Sound/Hamnet), Andrew Garfield (After the Hunt), Jeremy Strong (Deliver Me from Nowhere), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Mark Hamill (The Life of Chuck), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), and strong contender Stellan Skarsgård for his role in the Cannes hit Sentimental Value.
I currently have Sandler in the lead, primarily due to the significant emphasis on him in the film’s marketing, and because this could be a breakout hit of the fall festival season. With Sandler portraying a manager and friend to Jay Kelly, there’s reason to believe he’ll have significant screentime. Since it’s a Noah Baumbach film, it’s likely to be dialogue and monologue-driven, giving him plenty of chances to showcase his talents. Behind him, I have Skarsgård for his role as a filmmaker looking to re-enter the spotlight in the Cannes standout, Sentimental Value. Next, I favor Jeremy Strong, whose surprise nomination for The Apprentice could be followed by a nomination as Bruce Springsteen’s manager and producer Jon Landau in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere. Andrew Garfield stars as a professor accused of wrongdoing in Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt. Rounding out the top five, I have Paul Mescal for playing William Shakespeare in Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet. It won’t be easy for Sandler, as he must compete against a mix of past winners, nominees, and beloved actors yet to be recognized, to secure his first nomination. Still, a strong performance in a compelling film could earn him his first Oscar nod—and maybe even his first win.
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
3. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
5. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt
5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Next Up:
6. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
8. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
9. Robert Pattinson, Die My Love
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
