The Western is an ever-evolving genre. It’s a genre that built the myths of Manifest Destiny into sacrosanct lore. It’s a genre that lends itself to people taming and settling in a chaotic, lawless land. It’s a genre that celebrates the outlaw but reveres the lawman. It’s a genre that celebrates the camaraderie found on the trail or in the keeping of a community. This traditional Western is all but gone. Modern Westerns and Neo-Westerns tend to let the lines blur between black hats and white hats, creating chaos. The Neo-Westerns completely remove the 19th-century period, supplanting the conventional genre’s ideas, metaphors, and trappings to build new mythos in a more contemporary and post-World War I setting.

The last 25 years of Best Picture nominees have included a smattering of these Neo-Westerns, including Brokeback Mountain, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood, Winter’s Bone, Django Unchained, The Revenant, Hell or High Water, The Power of the Dog, and Killers of the Flower Moon. Bridging the divide is the Coen brothers’ adaptation of True Grit, which has the more stark violence and wandering spirit of the Neo-Western mixed with the traditional trappings of the earlier genre films.

Jeff Nichols’ The Bikeriders fits that Neo-Western bill. These outlaw bikers flaunt the authority of the society in which they live. They do as they please and own the open road ahead of them. They’ve formed a community of outsiders and enthusiasts who care about each other and each other’s lives. They have their justice and laws, and they let no one stand in the way of them. Yes, it takes place far from the plains of the true west, but it’s about the yearning for a life free from someone else’s foot on their neck.
Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An American Saga bucks the trend of the Neo-Western and embraces all that the traditional Western has been. It’s a sprawling epic in story, character, and geography. There are the lawless, the lawful, and those caught in between just trying to survive. Costner knows this genre well and builds an intriguing, if languishing, world, as it is billed, so far, as a two-part epic. The vistas are breathtaking, and the balance between the predominantly White settlers and the Indigenous peoples is not tipped to favor one over the other. It evokes that classic style of filmmaking that many Academy members still yearn for, and it’s a return to form from one of their old favorites.

These two Westerns could easily duke it out come Oscar night, but some things may hold them back from triumphing. The Bikeriders is full of excellent performances, gorgeous technical details, and a fabulous script by an American auteur who the Academy has largely ignored. Jeff Nichols came close with Loving in 2016, but only Ruth Negga’s powerful performance in the Best Actress category broke through. Nichols is long overdue for some recognition of the fabulous work he’s done. Still, a more international voting body may not see Nichols’ brand of Americana as representative of the best in a larger field of nominees.
The same goes for Horizon: An American Saga. Kevin Costner is well-liked in the United States, but the fact that his film is, so far, two separate parts, the Academy may be less likely to embrace his vision. The film also doesn’t have strong critical support or striking or outstanding performances. It may not get enough support with only the beautiful work Costner and his team have put behind the camera.
***
Here’s where I see the Best Picture field at this point.
Safe Bet
- Challengers
- Dune: Part Two
- Civil War
- The Bikeriders
Strong Potential
- Evil Does Not Exist
- Kinds of Kindness
- Horizon: An American Saga
Hopeful
- I Saw the TV Glow
- Ghostlight
- Monkey Man