Best Original Song is one of the most competitive categories at this year’s Academy Awards. Though there are a few that appear to have a better shot than others, this feels like a category that any of the five nominees can win. It’s been some time that the category was this close, with the 2015 duel (ultimately won by Sam Smith’s Spectre) being arguably the only year that even came close to approaching the level of uncertainty for this year. Let’s take a look into the case for each nominee in this category:
The Nominees
“Husavik” (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga) – This song is considered a favorite of many Oscar followers as a song that mixes English and Icelandic and builds to a powerful climax. But most importantly, the song is the only one of the five nominees that actually shows up within the film itself, rather than in the end credits. That’s not to say the Academy is completely averse to end credit songs, but appearing as part of the plot certainly helps “Husavik” stand out from the group. It also won the award for Outstanding Original Song for Visual Media from the Society of Composers & Lyricists, so it is not walking into Oscar night empty-handed either.
“Fight for You” (Judas and the Black Messiah) – This one isn’t walking in with major precursors, so its success should largely rely on how much the Academy appreciates the performer and co-writer, H.E.R. The artist has seen a big year that recently included Grammy wins for Song of the Year and Best R&B Song. It’s unlikely that this will carry “Fight for You” all the way to an Oscar win, but it’s an impressive, upbeat tune that packs an emotional punch, so we can’t count it out. It’s also one of two songs here that appear in a Best Picture nominee, but that rarely plays a big factor in this category.
“Io Sì (Seen)” (The Life Ahead) – Some might say this is the favorite heading into the Oscars, and for good reason. It had the earliest award to its name when it pulled a slight upset and won the Golden Globe for Best Original Song. Where the song faces difficulty is the fact that The Life Ahead was not even Italy’s submission for Best International Feature Film and that Sophia Loren never picked up a major precursor nod, much less an Oscar nod. It begs the question of how much passion there is for the song, and the film itself. But the major point here is that Diane Warren co-wrote it, giving her a twelfth career nomination in the category, despite never winning. Will this finally be the year she gets her Oscar? It may help that the performer and one of the co-writers of the song is Laura Pausini. While she may not be as popular as some of the other nominees in the U.S., she is very acclaimed overseas, including her home country of Italy. This, combined with Warren’s overdue narrative, could be the perfect combination.
“Speak Now” (One Night in Miami…) – Despite featuring one of the most popular current artists as its performer, this song is probably the most toned-down of the nominees. Oscar voters may prefer one of the more upbeat or crescendoed options. However, the fact that Leslie Odom Jr. provides his incredible vocals for the tune may decide the category. In addition to being nominated here, he’s also up for Best Supporting Actor. This is after a year in which his Tony-winning role in Hamilton was made available for many more audiences to witness on Disney+. It was shocking to see One Night in Miami…miss in Best Picture, but considering that Odom Jr.’s chances of winning Supporting Actor is minimal, some voters may decide this is the best place to award him and the film. It also took home the Critics Choice Award for Best Song, which has a decent track record of predicting the Oscar in the last decade.
“Hear My Voice” (The Trial of the Chicago 7) – Performed by recording artist Celeste – who released her debut album this year – this feels like the placeholder for spot number five in this category on the surface. But we should remember that the song comes from a film that entered the season as a supposed top-two contender in Best Picture. That alone doesn’t say much for this category, but it also may be the most wide-open place for Trial to steal a win on Oscar night. It’s unlikely, especially since the film is already a strong contender in Best Film Editing, but Celeste’s powerful vocals could sway the voters who listen to the nominated songs.
Which Song Will Win?
As wide open as this category is, I think there are two strong frontrunners in “Speak Now” and “Io Sì,” with “Husavik” not far behind. Statistically, the split between the Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice makes it tough to call. The Globes lined up with the Oscars six times in the 2010s, with Critics’ Choice lining up seven times. It’s too close to say which film has the advantage based on this alone. With that in mind, it’s likely to come down to narratives and the people behind the songs. It’s difficult to pick against Warren when she has such a good chance of finally ending her winless streak in a category that doesn’t have a clear favorite. However, I’m going with “Speak Now” due to Odom Jr.’s presence and the support of the film. Though the Academy snubbed One Night in Miami… in Best Picture and Best Director, they liked it enough to give it an Adapted Screenplay nod in addition to Odom Jr.’s two nominations. The last two winners of this category have been performed by popular recording artists and actors (Lady Gaga and Elton John), and I expect that trend to continue.
Which Song Should Win?
Film is subjective, and the same goes for music. While it’s not one of the three frontrunners in this category, I think “Fight for You” is the most effective and lingering song of the bunch. Though all of these songs relate to the content of their films in powerful ways, H.E.R.’s work reflects a sense of urgency and style that most closely resembles the film it comes from. Despite covering content that is both timely and oftentimes frustrating, it’s also an easy song to get hooked on and listen to multiple times. And though it doesn’t show up within the film like “Husavik,” it can still sit with a viewer who takes the time to listen through the credits.
