As we roll out of the major film festivals and settle into the waiting game of the industry and critics getting caught up on their films to watch, I figured it was a good time to discuss who are some of the potential Best Lead Actor candidates we might see show up on Oscar nomination morning. Much like every year, we see ourselves chop the field down in half as we progress through the Fall season. The reason being was that either the films weren’t strong enough to generate passion, or the performances themselves ended up not being able to stay in the conversation long enough to get in the field.
This time, we still have some contenders that might be able to last long enough to hold down a spot. And others that may not, but who knows? The year may hold us a few surprises. In the article, I want to go over some of the more notable contenders, and throw out some possibilities on who I think may get in the field, who may not get in, and who I think might end up as our frontrunner to win Best Lead Actor. Without further adieu, let’s begin!
Matt Damon in The Odyssey
Matt Damon has been a prolific actor over the past few decades, starring in various franchises like the Ocean’s trilogy, the Bourne series, and even dabbled into the superhero pool with cameo appearances in Deadpool 2, Thor: Ragnarok, and Thor: Love and Thunder. He’s also starred in award-winning films that garnered Oscar buzz, like Syriana, The Departed, Oppenheimer, Ford v Ferrari, and The Martian. With a variety of films on his belt, it’s easy to see why Matt is seen as a known actor in Hollywood.
Which leads us into The Odyssey, his latest film working with Christopher Nolan as Odysseus, where he’s forced to undergo a long and perilous journey back home to reunite with his wife, Penelope. Not only was this beloved by critics and audiences to where people are watching this 5+ times in theaters, but it’s currently the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time; the previous record was held by Deadpool and Wolverine. And to think that people assumed this would flop, when Nolan hasn’t had a major flop in his career outside of Tenet, which was released theatrically during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The question stands: can Matt Damon win this category on the strength of the film? And the answer is yes. I’ve severely underestimated his chances, as my focus from the start was always on Tom Cruise, which we’ll get to later in the article. But after thinking it over, I think Matt Damon absolutely has a great shot at winning this Academy Award.
Not only is he the face of The Odyssey, but he’s working with an auteur-driven filmmaker that’s providing him with a transformative, leading role for the actor to play. I would also argue that Matt is in a relatively strong top three Best Picture contender, and usually when you’re in a competitive field that helps your chances at an Oscar win. Even Adrien Brody and Michael B. Jordan managed to win Lead Actor, as they were starring in strong contenders for the top prize with The Brutalist and Sinners, respectively.
It also helps that we know The Odyssey is likely going to be competitive in the tech categories like Best Cinematography and Original Score, as well as a possible second Best Director win for Christopher Nolan. Again, these may not be locked and loaded now, but we could see a world where it becomes a formidable contender in those categories. Another aspect to bring up is that while Matt Damon technically does have an Oscar, he’s never won one for the acting categories.
I, personally, think that if someone won a competitive Oscar they won the prize; even someone like Riz Ahmed who’s got his own Oscar but it was never for his acting performances. As for Matt Damon, he’s only received one Academy Award for his work on Good Will Hunting in the Best Original Screenplay category. Since then, he’s gotten nominated for starring in Invictus, The Martian, and producing Manchester by the Sea but none of them have translated to a win. And as we’ve seen lately, the Academy isn’t afraid handing out another set of Oscars to a previous winner:
- Mahershala Ali for Green Book
- Renée Zellweger for Judy
- Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Anthony Hopkins for The Father
- Frances McDormand for Nomadland
- Emma Stone for Poor Things
- Adrien Brody for The Brutalist
- Sean Penn for One Battle After Another
Now on the flipside, I can see Matt might not be able to win this. While he can be seen as a strong contender for the top prize, it’s rare to see the Academy go for an epic fantasy. The Lord of the Rings only won the tech categories until its final installment with The Return of the King. The Shape of Water was also seen as a fantasy film and won Best Picture and Director, but didn’t win in the acting categories.
Another aspect to consider is that it’s been tough for someone to win both a writing and acting Oscar. The only person in the history of the Academy Awards to pull this off was Emma Thompson. Not only was she the strong frontrunner for her acting win on Howards End, but her writing Oscar for Sense and Sensibility was a competitive year. It did work out in the end to where Emma won the writing Oscar, but it’s not easy winning both.
The true test on whether Matt Damon is strong enough to win the acting Oscar will be at the televised prizes, specifically with BAFTA and SAG. While Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice are also good places to make a stand, they’re not voted directly from the industry itself. Whereas SAG and BAFTA are voted by the populist part of the industry and the high-brow mind of the international voting block, respectively. This race is far from over, but I think if the train keeps chugging along as is, I wouldn’t be shocked if Matt Damon became our next Best Lead Actor winner.
John Malkovich in Wild Horse Nine
If we’re looking for a smart alternative to predict as our frontrunner in Best Actor, it is John Malkovich in Wild Horse Nine. He plays a veteran CIA officer by the name of Chris Carlisle, who is dispatched to Easter Island with his protégé, Lee Chesterfield, prior to the 1973 Chilean coup d’état. From there, Chris’s newfound bond with a pair of rebellious students threatens to send everyone’s trip to this remote paradise sideways.
Wild Horse Nine has gained critical acclaim ever since its Venice Film Festival premiere, and even garnered John a Volpi Cup for Best Actor. Ever since then, the film has gained enough critical acclaim that makes me believe this’ll be nominated for Best Picture. Whether or not it can translate to any above-the-line wins for Martin McDonagh himself is hard to say right now.
What I can say is that unless I see serious momentum being switched over when we get to the industry awards, I think John might not be our frontrunner as some pundits think he could. Yes; Martin’s feature films recently have received critical acclaim and even scored some Oscar nominations. Unfortunately, they haven’t won much outside of Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. The Banshees of Inisherin was a likely runner-up in certain categories, like Best Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress. But that’s the key word: likely. As there was a dominating player that season with Everything Everywhere All at Once winning those categories, as well as Best Picture and Director.
Another factor that’s making me hesitant in pulling the trigger on predicting John as our frontrunner is the Volpi Cup history. In all the years of the Venice Film Festival, sometimes the recipient of this prize gets nominated for the Oscars. We’ve seen many get that prize and score an acting Oscar nod, but only a select few tend to win the Oscar:
- Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde (1931) – Frederich March [Lead Actor]
- The Sin of Madelon Caludet (1931) – Helen Hayes [Lead Actress]
- The Story of Louis Pasteur (1936) – Paul Muni [Lead Actor]
- Pygmalion (1938) – Leslie Howard [Lead Actor]
- Marie Antoinette (1938) – Norma Shearer [Lead Actress]
- Hamlet (1948) – Jean Simmons [Supporting Actress]
- The Snake Pit (1949) – Olivia de Havilland [Lead Actress]
- Caged (1950) – Eleanor Parker [Lead Actress]
- The Asphalt Jungle (1950) – Sam Jaffe [Supporting Actor]
- A Streetcar Named Desire (1951) – Vivien Leigh [Lead Actress]
- A Hatful of Rain (1957) – Anthony Franciosa [Lead Actor]
- Anatomy of a Murder (1959) – James Stewart [Lead Actor]
- The Apartment (1960) – Shirley MacLaine [Lead Actress]
- Birdman of Alcatraz (1962) – Burt Lancaster [Lead Actor]
- Tom Jones (1963) – Albert Finney [Lead Actor]
- Before Night Falls (2000) – Javier Bardem [Lead Actor]
- Far from Heaven (2002) – Julianne Moore [Lead Actress]
- Vera Drake (2004) – Imelda Staunton [Lead Actress]
- Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) – David Strathairn [Lead Actor]
- The Queen (2006) – Helen Mirren [Lead Actress]
- I’m Not There (2007) – Cate Blanchett [Supporting Actress]
- A Single Man (2009) – Colin Firth [Lead Actor]
- The Master (2012) – Joaquin Phoenix and Philip Seymour Hoffman [Lead Actor and Supporting Actor]
- La La Land (2016) – Emma Stone [Lead Actress]
- At Eternity’s Gate (2018) – Willem Dafoe [Lead Actor]
- The Favourite (2018) – Olivia Colman [Lead Actress]
- Pieces of a Woman (2020) – Vanessa Kirby [Lead Actress]
- Parallel Mothers (2021) – Penélope Cruz [Lead Actress]
- The Banshees of Inisherin (2022) – Colin Farrell [Lead Actor]
- TÁR (2022) – Cate Blanchett [Lead Actress]
By this record, only seven actors have won both the Volpi Cup and the Academy Award for the same performance. It is possible that John can beat this so-called “stat”, but the odds may not look good against him when we get to the televised prizes and he starts losing them. Granted, I haven’t seen the film yet and don’t know how great he is in the role. I might even change my mind on this, but for now I still see Malkovich as our other candidate as to who could win Best Actor.
Andrew Scott in Elsinore
Andrew Scott has shown us how incredibly talented he can be, whether it’s on the stage, showing up in TV shows like Sherlock, or appearing on film as a leading man or a supporting player. This year, he’s impressing festival crowds with his performance in Elsinore, as he portrays Ian Charleson coming to grips that he’s gravely ill from AIDS while he’s preparing to play the titular role of Hamlet at the National Theatre. Already, the film has garnered critical acclaim for Andrew’s performance and could get into the Best Actor conversation.
The film hasn’t even come out yet for nationwide audiences, and it’s already won a couple of festival prizes; the two it has been honored with are the International People’s Choice from TIFF and the Acting Award from Mill Valley for Andrew. Now, I could see a world where he gets in the field, as he was seen by many as a major snub for not getting in the crowded lineup for All of Us Strangers. And it does help that he’s playing a known actor, whose filmography involved two Best Picture winners: Chariots of Fire and Gandhi.
The thing that I keep hearing from people who have seen it is that while they’re passionate and emotionally invested in Scott’s performance, I’m not hearing much passion for the overall film. I do think it is possible he’ll get in the field, as we’ve seen lone acting nominees as recently as last year. But not only is Best Picture becoming a crowded field, but Focus Features has another major awards contender that might be considered a priority for them, and that’s Obsession.
Say what you will about Obsession or whether it’s a comedy or dramatic film, that made well over $500 million worldwide and is now Focus’ highest-grossing film. Momentum for that film hasn’t stopped since its theatrical run back in May. If it doesn’t become a priority for the studio and they want to pivot, Elsinore could be their number one film to back up. But for now, I’m only seeing the film’s prospects with a possible Lead Actor nomination for Andrew Scott.
Tom Cruise in Digger
Tom Cruise has been out of the dramatic acting game for quite some time. Sure; he was recently nominated for producing Top Gun: Maverick, but he hasn’t received an acting nomination since his supporting part in Magnolia. This season, he’s working with Alejandro González Iñárritu in the titular role, Digger, where he plays an oil tycoon trying to save the world from his own actions.
While Tom Cruise is going all out in this performance, I could see a world where he misses the field. Not only was the film a major box-office disaster, but it also didn’t receive the greatest of reviews from critics; audiences were a little more favorable, but not enough to say it got the greatest reviews from that group. However, Alejandro’s films have always been nominated for something at the Oscars. Even Bardo got in for a Best Cinematography nomination for Darius Khondji; a man who hadn’t gotten nominated in the category since Evita (a movie that came out a year before I was born).
Another aspect to keep in mind is that while Tom’s chances of a win are gone, I still think he could get in as a bubble contender. The reason being is that not only is this a physical transformation with the makeup work by Oscar-winner, Kazu Hiro, but looking at Alejandro’s past films they also got in for acting categories when it came to his movie star films like 21 Grams, Babel, Birdman, & The Revenant. Tom is also a known, respected figure amongst the industry, so he may not be out of the game when it comes to a Best Actor nomination.
John Turturro in The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
John Turturro is in the awards conversation with The Only Living Pickpocket in New York. The film revolves around Harry Lehman, who’s an aging career pickpocket. During one of his robberies, he comes across a device that belongs to a young member of a major crime family and loses it. In order to get it back, Harry will have to use his lifetime of personal connections to make things right.
Turturro has been in the industry for a long time, and one of his early credits included being an extra in Martin Scorsese’s Raging Bull. Ever since then, he’s worked with a variety of directors that include Spike Lee, Woody Allen, the Coen brothers, and Guillermo del Toro. It’s honestly impressive that John’s never gotten this kind of consideration in his entire career up until this role. Pending on what happens with the race, but I can easily see this man finally score his first Academy Award nomination.
While it doesn’t sound like the film would be able to get any other major nomination, I am hearing enough buzz that the performance itself could carry through to the field. Not only is Turturro a respected, veteran actor who’s been known for working in the industry for decades, but the film has Sony Pictures Classics behind its back marketing it. They were able to get The Father nominated for a handful of Oscar nods, and even got I’m Still Here a surprise Best Picture nomination. For anyone scoffing at this possibility from happening, I’d suggest you don’t keep your eyes off this one.
Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary
Ryan Gosling has recently taken a turn from challenging, arthouse roles to making populist, blockbuster fare. This time, he’s co-producing and starring in Project Hail Mary, where he plays a middle school teacher, Ryland Grace, and wakes up aboard an interstellar aircraft with no memory of how he got there. Even though the odds are against him, he’ll do whatever it takes to get himself out of this predicament and find a way back home.
As I’ve said, Ryan’s had a bit of a switch in his acting career lately. That’s not to say there’s anything wrong with making a career change, as we’ve seen plenty of actors do this and are successful at it. The same can be said for Ryan here, as Project Hail Mary made close to $700 million worldwide and got positive reviews from critics and audiences. I could see a world where he might be able to squeeze in the field this year, as he’s not only got a commercial hit but he’s working with a pair of Oscar-winning filmmakers, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller.
He’s also a part of an Andy Weir-adaptation, in which the last time it was received well with Academy voters was The Martian. They even hired Drew Goddard back to adapt this book as well, who also scored an Oscar nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay. The downside is that while I could see Ryan get in the field similarly to Matt Damon did with The Martian, I can also see Ryan being one of the bigger snubs. Not only because the Academy has five spots, but they’ve had a history of looking down upon performances within the populist films.
Something like Top Gun: Maverick or the Dune films aren’t seen by the Academy for their performances, because they always see them as money-making endeavors that captured the zeigeist. They also just don’t take them seriously when it comes to nominating said performances, when they have better alternatives. That’s one of the many reasons why someone like Timothée Chalamet got nominated for his performance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, as opposed to getting in for Dune: Part Two; a performance I’d argue is much better than the one he got nominated for. I could see Ryan Gosling get in the Oscar field, as he could score a Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nomination. But if he can’t get into something like BAFTA or SAG, then we might see him as a possible miss for the Best Actor category.
Robert Pattinson in Primetime
Robert Pattinson has had a tremendous year so far, starring in the romantic dark comedy, The Drama. Not only did this make well over $134 million worldwide, but he also starred in The Odyssey. Later this year, Robert’s got Dune: Part Three, but out of all of those films I believe the film that’ll give him a better shot at an Oscar nomination is Primetime. In the film, he plays Chris Hanson, hosting the reality television series, To Catch a Predator, in the hopes of cleansing the world of child predators all across the United States.
This film premiered at the Venice Film Festival, and while it didn’t score any prizes it earned enough critical acclaim for Robert Pattinson’s performance to generate buzz. As of now, Primetime has become a box-office hit, making back its $14.5 million budget worldwide. After now seeing the film and A24 backing this up, I’m starting to wonder if Robert can actually make it in the field.
Yes; it’s covering a dark subject matter and is presented in a grim manner, but as we’ve seen lately the Academy isn’t afraid of nominating films like this. Last year, we saw A24 back up Rose Byrne for a Lead Actress nod on If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. So, there is a chance Robert could squeak into the field, especially when the Academy loves to nominate biographical performances.
Now there are two problems this film might run into:
1) Even if the film may be too intense for voters, A24 has a lot on their plate this year. They have The Debut and The Invite to push out, as well as other contenders like Club Kid and You Can See Everything (which is mainly in the Best Documentary Feature category) as possible contenders in other major categories. I could see the path for Primetime to get campaigned, but Robert would have to advocate it throughout the various screenings. If they can push that onto SAG, then I can see him get in the Oscar lineup.
2) While Pattinson could become the film’s lone acting nominee, I don’t know if the film itself can get another nomination. The reason I say this is that I’m already predicting John Turturro and Andrew Scott as potential lone acting nominees for this category, and recently the branch goes mostly for Best Picture-nominated films. Last year, the Academy nominated four Best Picture nominees for Lead Actor, and the only non-BP nominee was Blue Moon. And as for Primetime, it’s a well-crafted film but nothing stood out to me as a Best Picture nomination or a possible tech nomination.
I have to see how this plays out, as I felt Robert Pattinson was terrific in the film and is given enough to get the nod. If he does get in the field, it’ll be a worthy nomination for an incredibly impressive career. To think that I almost gave up on the guy after doing those Twilight films. Now, he’s got a decade’s worth of incredible roles from Good Time, The Lighthouse, The Batman, and now Primetime.
One more note I’ll bring up regarding Pattinson’s possible nod with this: should he get in the Lead Actor field for this and Dune: Part Three gets nominated for Best Picture, this would be the third time this has occurred. The first two Dune films got in the Oscars, they ironically came out the same year Javier Bardem got in for Being the Ricardos and Timothée Chalamet got in for A Complete Unknown, respectively. Both of which starred in biographical films about known celebrities. We’ll see if Robert can repeat this weird trend, but if he can I’ll be laughing my way to the bank.
Sebastian Stan in Fjord
Sebastian Stan is in the running for another possible Lead Actor nomination. Last time, he was nominated for The Apprentice, where he played Donald Trump, who at this time was a real estate businessman in New York City as he was learning from attorney Roy Cohn. With Fjord, Sebastian plays a Romanian father, Mihai Gheorghiu, who moves his wife, Lisbet (Renate Reinsve), and kids to a remote Norwegian village and the couple are accused of abusing their children.
The biggest benefit Stan may have is not only is this a different role than his first Oscar nomination, but he’s a part of a possible Best Picture contender. I get that after Neon won the Palme d’Or for It Was Just An Accident and failed to pick up a Best Picture nomination, they had a lot on their plate to campaign. Add in the fact that they didn’t have any known actors for the Academy to advocate for, and you can see why it didn’t secure an Oscar nod outside of Best International Film and Original Screenplay.
With Fjord, I could see the path for this to potentially get in for acting nominations, especially when Sebastian and Renate are previous nominees. It also helps that Neon might put this up as their top priority for major categories over All of a Sudden, which also has potential acting nominations. I could also see a path for these subdued performances to get in, as they tend to go over well with the international voting block of the Academy. Even something like Wagna Moura’s quiet performance in The Secret Agent managed to get recognized by the voters.
So, while I can see legit reasons to not put Stan in their predictions, I’d say we should keep an eye out for him. For all we know, he might be a surprise nominee on the announcement morning. Until then, we’ll have to wait and see how this performance does with critics’ groups and the televised groups.
