The expansion of the Best Picture category led to many more films being recognized, but it also led to a new game amongst prognosticators. Now, we slot films into neat archetypal roles. We have the big budget spectacle (Barbie, Dune, Top Gun: Maverick), the challenging drama (Anatomy of a Fall, Women Talking, The Father), prestige studio fare (Oppenheimer, West Side Story, Elvis), and social satire (Don’t Look Up, The Triangle of Sadness, American Fiction). Every film in the race plays a role and gets a narrative built around it.
The archetype that is buzzed about the longest is the indie darling. The Sundance Film Festival happens in January every year and often kicks off award season as the buzz surrounding the most prominent indie films ramps up. Sundance has been where an asterisk has been put by potential and future Best Picture nominees as they make their debuts. At Sundance future nominees Minari and Past Lives and future Best Picture winner CODA found their champions.
This past January, Ghostlight made its debut at Sundance and has ridden some buzz ever since. It’s a film about grief and how the community and vulnerability of art can help people to understand their feelings better. It’s a beautifully made film with great emotional resonance. The only problem with cementing its status as this season’s indie darling is Sing Sing.
Sing Sing is a film that premiered at the 2023 Toronto International Film Festival and has had the eyes and ears of critics ever since. It’s a film about a group of inmates at Sing Sing prison who learn vulnerability and humanity through the power of performance. It’s a beautifully realized film with an outstanding lead performance by Colman Domingo, nominated in Best Actor last season for his role in Rustin. The film is emotionally deep, with themes of identity and isolation.
So far this season, these two films have been written about in tandem because of their similar themes. They are strikingly different in execution and story, but two similarly themed films in the same year almost always means one will rise to the top because it has a slight edge. Likely, the discussions about which is unique enough to get into competition over the other one will begin now that praise has been heaped on each of them in turn.
It’s extremely likely Sing Sing will emerge as the top of the indie crowd. Not only does it have a terrific narrative around the making of it, but it has the backing of awards powerhouse A24 and Colman Domingo’s charm on the campaign trail. Each film deserves a shot, but the way the Academy votes it’s more likely to swing toward one indie darling over two.
Even objectivity has its limits when it comes to human emotion, though. Just look at the success of CODA, which had no major stars but a unique angle on a common coming-of-age trope. Ghostlight isn’t flashy. It’s a story that plays out slowly and surely on the screen and hits you right in the heart. There’s something to be said for the catharsis of a truly good cry.
The season is still young. The fall festivals will roar into next month and shake every race to its core. Though, you can bet, as I will, that Sing Sing is currently the Best Picture frontrunner to beat.
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This is a curated list of possible nominees amongst the films that have been theatrically released. It’s fun to speculate on what may be coming later in the year, but I’ll focus only on what has had its widest possible release at the time of publication. The list will evolve as the year progresses and we get closer to show time. The list will be split into three categories.
The first category will be called “Safe Bet.” These films are the most likely to carry through the season and into the list of Oscar nominees. The next category will be called “Strong Potential.” These films have something going for them but may not have enough momentum to last the season. The final category will be called “Hopeful.” These are films that I want to highlight as worthy contenders that are likely to be ignored.
Here’s where I see the Best Picture field at this point.
Safe Bet
- Challengers
- Dune: Part Two
- Civil War
- The Bikeriders
- Sing Sing
Strong Potential
- Kinds of Kindness
- Ghostlight
Hopeful
- Thelma
- Longlegs
- Dídi
