There is a strong case to be made that we are in an auteur-driven era at the Academy Awards. The last two contests have heavily favored films driven by strong narrative voices behind the camera. There are examples in the previous ten years of filmmakers with their hands in many aspects of filmmaking. There are not just triple threats but quadruple and quintuple threats that have changed how we view film authorship.
Director Alonso Cuarón has been Oscar-nominated three times for editing. He won an Oscar for cinematography for Roma in addition to two wins for directing. He also has three nominations for producing (one being in the Live Action Short category) and four nominations for writing.
Director Bong Joon-ho won four Oscars in one night (International Feature Film, Original Screenplay, Director, and Picture) for his film Parasite, which tied a record held by Walt Disney since 1954. Everything Everywhere All at Once, made by the duo Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, won seven Oscars; three wins were for the pair. Oppenheimer also won seven Oscars; two were awarded to director Christopher Nolan.

There are five films in this year’s Best Picture race that have the type of omnipresent filmmaking that has been successful in the last several years:
- Anora is up for six awards, including four for filmmaker Sean Baker—Editing, Original Screenplay, Directing, and Picture.
- The Brutalist is up for 10 awards, including three for Brady Corbet—Original Screenplay, Directing, and Picture.
- A Complete Unknown is up for eight awards, with nominations for filmmaker James Mangold—Adapted Screenplay, Directing, and Picture.
- Emilia Pérez is up for 13 awards, five of which filmmaker Jacques Audiard is up for—Original Song, International Feature Film, Adapted Screenplay, Directing, and Picture.
- The Substance is up for five awards, including three nominations for filmmaker Coralie Fargeat—Original Screenplay, Directing, and Picture.
The auteur has had an edge in the 21st century when the studios began to cede their places in the top categories to independent features. The studios stopped taking risks, and the independent distributors fell hard for the cults of personality behind certain filmmakers. Christopher Nolan is the rare studio auteur who can work his unique visions within the system.
However, knowing these films and their proponents, there must be those who prefer the collaborative method. It’s how films like Green Book and CODA have slipped through in this auteur era. Even though they are powered by the same passion, there isn’t a view that singular visions drove them. These films have a wide appeal and are well-made to boot.

That makes a case for Conclave taking the whole contest. The film is from a small distributor, but it feels like a film a larger, not-so-IP-obsessed studio could have made and championed 20 years ago. Conclave is a well-liked film by Edward Berger, who saw a wellspring of support for his last film, All Quiet on the Western Front. Conclave is also a political thriller that points toward common sense and progressing forward for the right reasons at a time when the president of the United States is wielding his pen like a king’s scepter. Conclave is what we wish could happen, what we want to happen in our political discourse. We want corrupt men to lose. We want the righteous to lead the pious. We want someone to be chosen for the betterment of all over, someone who will selfishly take for the enrichment of the few. Conclave is a movie of the moment more than the other visions in the Best Picture category.
Amidst controversies about actors’ past statements, the use of AI, and the creation of a safe space for people to work on intimate scenes, the devastation of Los Angeles, first by wildfires and now by dangerous floods, and the daily attacks on people, institutions, and allies by a poison penned little autocrat, Academy voters may want an idealized world. They may want a film with a world that takes logical steps toward the right side of history. Conclave is a nail-biter of a thriller with the panache of a filmmaker who elevates the genres he works in. He makes art that builds meaning in each frame. It’s a film well worthy of the title “Oscar Winner.”

Can Conclave win? Yes. Will it win? No. Despite any controversy or any contenders to come and challenge it, and despite Conclave‘s strong showing at the BAFTAs and SAG, Best Picture has long been in the hands of Anora. Since its premiere at the Cannes Film Festival last May, Anora has been the film on everyone’s lips. Emilia Pérez and The Substance were also there, but Anora came out the strongest of the pack. With wins at the Producers Guild Awards, Directors Guild Awards, Critics Choice Awards, and Writers Guild Awards, Anora is poised to be announced as Best Picture on Oscar night. Any film can spoil, of course (The Brutalist), but it’s only Anora’s to lose.