It’s hard to make a confident prediction when you can’t see a film for yourself. I’ve tried all last year to not just hop onto whatever everyone else is writing about in terms of Best Picture as I don’t have the same type of access as others in this field do. Yet, now the list is getting clearer and clearer as precursor awards shape the final push of the season to its ultimate conclusion on Oscar night.
With that in mind, I have compiled what I consider to be the clearest outcome on nomination morning, January 23rd. Even if I can’t speak to personal enjoyment or details of the films because some of them haven’t had a wide release, it’s getting more and more obvious. Buzz is a powerful tool for influencing awards voters and may be even more powerful than the film itself. With such a healthy crop, there is wiggle room, so I will make sure and provide some alternatives, spoilers, or surprises that could usurp any one of my predicted nominees.
Here are my predictions for the 10 films most likely to be nominated for Best Picture.
Note that these nominees are in alphabetical order.
Anora – Even though the critics organizations that dominate the awards conversation in the early months have no overlap with the voting body of the Academy Awards, they are the tastemakers. Every single one of those has had Anora somewhere on their lists. Anora is one of two films I consider to be mortal locks.
The Brutalist – The other mortal lock for Best Picture is The Brutalist. Like most of you, I still have not had a chance to see the film. That doesn’t mean I haven’t heard the deafening praise and exaltation from every corner of the internet. It doesn’t hurt that The Brutalist just won Best Drama at the Golden Globes.
A Complete Unknown – Lately, music biopics have been hit or miss during awards season. They either come out of the gate strong like Elvis and Bohemian Rhapsody, or they fizzle and are kept out of the big races like Rocketman and Straight Outta Compton. A Complete Unknown will be the former. With showy, but grounded performances and an artist like Bob Dylan, who has been beloved by generations. It’s hard not to predict that A Complete Unknown will be one of the final 10.
Conclave – With a contentious U.S. election decided it will be hard to imagine the Academy won’t draw a parallel to this taut papal election drama. It’s also got technical wizardry that rivals the blockbusters on a fraction of their budgets. Following director Edward Berger’s strong showing in 2023 with his adaptation of All Quiet on the Western Front, it would be very strange not to see this follow-up amongst the nominees.
Dune: Part Two – This film has been on every potential nominations list since its release in March. It was always going to be the blockbuster choice no matter what else came around. The technical mastery is only matched by the scale of the love it has received from audiences. It only helps Dune: Part Two‘s chances that Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga and Joker: Folie à Deux fizzled where their predecessors shined very brightly.
Emilia Pérez – While it attempts to break down storytelling barriers, Emilia Pérez has become a lightning rod of negative discussion. The antipathy toward it is unlikely to hurt its chances of getting on this ballot as it racks up nominations left and right. Emilia Pérez will join a long line of “Oscar Villains,” films that receive heaps of praise that are nearly as loud as the dissenting voices. Those dissenting voices let out a loud groan as the film clinched the Best Musical or Comedy trophy at the Golden Globes.
Nickel Boys – This is another one, like many of you, I have not been given the opportunity to see. It’s clear from the scattered, but strong support it has received that Nickel Boys is an absolute contender. The love fest from year-end top ten lists is enough to give me confidence that it will make this final 10.
Sing Sing – Though it has lagged behind its competitors in some precursor nominations, Sing Sing is as indomitable as the spirits of its subjects. Distributor A24 is likely throwing their mighty marketing apparatus behind The Brutalist, but you can’t count out a film that encourages artistic expression as therapy and the triumph of the human spirit. It’s a feel-good film without the sappy schmaltz.
The Substance – It’s been surprising that a body horror film has become such a darling of the circuit. Though, its larger metaphor about aging, beauty, and addiction will likely speak to a voting body of an industry that despises aging, reveres beauty, and hides addiction. Based on its showing in the precursors, it’s very likely The Substance will be joining the Best Picture line-up.
Wicked – In all predicted models of the attempted, but failed Barbenheimer repeat, Glicked, many pundits had Gladiator II topping Wicked. With a bevy of plaudits, box office, and powerhouse performances behind it, though, Wicked is the clear winner. It’s probable Wicked will be defying odds to secure a spot in the top 10.
Even though I feel certain about my choices, there is a lingering doubt. The voters of the Academy, especially, go for something intriguing over what everyone else is doing. So, some potential alternates, spoilers, or surprises follow.
Challengers – It’s time for one last wild speculation. It’s true that Challengers’ April release date was to its disadvantage come awards time, but the film has been showing up on lists far more often than director Luca Guadagnino’s other feature, Queer. It also helps that it was somewhat of a box office anomaly, and much like The Substance has entered the cultural zeitgeist.
A Real Pain – The Academy has had a strong connection with Holocaust narratives. While A Real Pain doesn’t take place during the Holocaust, it is a film that deals with the deep scars left on the descendants of those who survived the atrocities. It’s expertly acted and written, and that could be enough for it to supplant something else here for a mention in Best Picture as well.
September 5 – Many pundits still have September 5 in their top 10, but with only a smattering of love from other awards bodies, it’s unlikely that it could crack into the final group.Though, the Academy goes absolutely gaga for journalism dramas. Look at the recent successful nominations of The Post and Spotlight for proof.
