Thursday, February 13, 2025

Chasing the Gold: Final Oscar Predictions (Best International Feature)

If there is any doubt remaining as to which films will be announced as the Oscar nominees for Best International Feature on Thursday, Jan. 23 (the big reveal will begin at 5:30 a.m. PT/8:30 a.m. ET across the Academy’s website and social channels), wavering parties can safely fill one of the slots with Emilia Pérez. Jacques Audiard’s divisive Netflix opera has been lauded just about as much as it has been derided over the course of the last eight months since the film held its world premiere at the Cannes Film Festival. Yet as the 2025 awards season has worn on, this tale of a Mexican cartel boss (Karla Sofía Gascón) who seeks the help of a lawyer (Zoe Saldaña) to undergo gender affirmation surgery so she can live as a woman has proved to be a juggernaut of proportions few other films can match. The French production received 10 nominations at the Golden Globes— making it the most-nominated musical or comedy in the ceremony’s history— and won four awards; it was nominated 11 times at the  British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTAs), including two nods for its “supporting” actresses (Saldaña and Selena Gomez). 

Despite this, it seems that, in many ways, an International Feature win for Audiard and co. would feel like a backslide for the Academy, as its last few winners have (mostly) proven the presence of the body’s evolving membership and its broader grasp of world cinema. From 2017 on, we’ve seen Oscars go to A Fantastic Woman, Roma, Parasite, Another Round, All Quiet on the Western Front (hence the earlier emphasis on mostly), and The Zone of Interest. In a slew of ambitious high-brow honorees, Emilia Pérez would stick out like a sore thumb.

Of note, though: The loudest criticisms can easily drown out the boldest raves, and many of those exist on behalf of Emilia Pérez. Plenty of directors love it; actors like Emily Blunt, Meryl Streep, Eva Longoria, and America Ferrera agree; heck, Madonna loved it. Not every mouthpiece-holder has the clout that these select few maintain, but as it is often said, any press is good press, and Emilia Pérez has perhaps held a more permanent position in the headlines than any other 2024 film on the circuit. Conclave has given the movie the most hell, to the point where online prayers for the papal drama to save us from Pérez-ian dominance have become fodder for virality. Before its Criterion Collection cover art came under fire, Anora inexplicably fell off the map just months after it was considered a Best Picture frontrunner; The Brutalist has been unable to erect an awards campaign as lofty as its ambitions and has recently come under fire for its own overblown controversy, one that it ironically shares with Emilia Pérez.

But none of those films are up for Best International Feature, a category where Emilia Pérez will see competition at the Oscars. While it remains the odds on favorite to win in the end, 14 other films have hope for a nomination, and with plenty of time between Jan. 23 and the current show date (Sunday, March 2), any number of the shortlisted titles could make a last-ditch run at the statuette. In alphabetical order, those titles are:

Armand (Norway)

Dahomey (Senegal)

Flow (Latvia

From Ground Zero (Palestine)

The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)

How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)

I’m Still Here (Brazil)

Kneecap (Ireland)

Santosh (United Kingdom)

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

Touch (Iceland)

Universal Language (Canada)

Vermiglio (Italy)

Waves (Czech Republic)

Emilia Pérez is going to win its fair share of Oscars; this particular award is expected to be one of them. Yet, it stands to reason that not every single voter will rank it atop their individual preferential ballots, instead placing another film in that top spot. I suspect that the following five films will be there to choose from. 

THE PREDICTED NOMINEES:

  • Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard (France)
  • Flow – Gints Zilbalodis (Latvia)
  • I’m Still Here – Walter Salles (Brazil)
  • The Seed of the Sacred Fig – Mohammed Rasoulof (Germany)
  • Vermiglio – Maura Delpero (Italy)

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