In my last animated feature article, I mentioned that Flow could be a dark horse for a nomination. It’s an independent animated film from Latvia—a country that hasn’t had the best of luck with awards, with Flow being the only Latvian film to ever even be shortlisted for the Best International Feature Oscar—and it revolves around a pack of animals, none of whom can speak anything other than their native sounds, trying to survive a random and unexplainable flood following the disappearance of all human life— another aspect left unexplained. Also, the animation style is unlike anything cinema has ever seen; as some people said during the trailers, it looked like a PlayStation cutscene more than an actual film. But, like the titular animals of the film, Flow was meant to surprise you, and after its shocking, yet well-deserved, Golden Globe win, the train might just keep flowing.
It’s becoming more evident that this race will be between the $78 million swan song for DreamWorks in-house productions vs the $3.5 million indie from Latvia. It’s a true David vs. Goliath scenario, as an animated indie has never won the Oscar for Best Animated Feature. Whether it be Pixar, Disney, Studio Ghibli, or even DreamWorks, bigger-budget studios have ruled this award, and that looked like it was going to be the case yet again as The Wild Robot picked up four nominations at the Golden Globes, making it one of the most nominated animated films in the history of the awards show. Still, the “little cat that could” won the award at night’s end.
We must remember that this is just one of the many awards shows over the next few months and that while this win is an excellent sign for Flow, practically guaranteeing it will receive a nomination (only one film that won the Globe failed to earn an Oscar nomination [The Adventures of Tintin]), it doesn’t mean The Wild Robot is done just yet, it just has a much taller hill to climb. Animation being recognized at these awards shows is still extremely new, so there isn’t much data to siphon through to see how well this win translates to an Oscar win. Since the inclusion of this award at the Globes in 2006, only four films (Cars, The Adventures of Tintin, How to Train Your Dragon 2, and The Missing Link) won the Globe and didn’t go on to win the Oscar, which means the Globes are hitting at an impressive 78% rate; it’s not perfect, but it’s strong.
The Wild Robot still has its merits. There is still a strong possibility that it will pick up at least one nomination other than Animated Feature in either the Original Score or Original Song category. Both of these categories are relatively weak this year, and with Robbie Williams’ song for Better Man disqualified late with no replacement and Miley Cyrus’s Globes-nominated song for The Last Showgirl missing the shortlist, it seems it’s just gotten weaker. Not to mention, people still love The Wild Robot; it has strong ratings and is bound to earn more nominations and wins along the way. But something about this race is beginning to feel, in a way, like a repeat of how last year’s race played out.
Similar to The Wild Robot, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse had this award locked up as it felt we should engrave the names and call it a day; Daniel Pemberton seemed likely to pick up his second score nomination, and there was even chatter that Across the Spider-Verse would sneak in for VFX and maybe even a song mention. And then came Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron, and even though Across the Spider-Verse picked up wins at the Annie Awards (which awards excellence in animation) and the Producers Guild of America (PGA), The Boy and the Heron’s wins at the Globes and BAFTA was all it needed to wind up with the Oscar in hand. For The Wild Robot, an Annie win is pretty safe considering that Flow was not nominated in the Best Feature category and is instead in Best Feature – Independent; regarding PGA, while I think Flow will pick up a nomination, the Producers Guild of America has never awarded an animated film that is either independent or foreign, Flow happens to be both.
With Flow nominated in a different category than The Wild Robot for the Annie Award, it’s safe to assume they both will win their respective awards. When it comes to PGA, if Flow wins here, I think the race is over and done with, but I have to give the edge to The Wild Robot, as even a nomination for Flow is still up in the air simply of how low-budget and small scale the movie is. That takes the race to BAFTA, where throughout the 2020s, every eventual Oscar winner in this category has won here first. Flow and The Wild Robot are longlisted for Children’s & Family Films and Animated Features, but both managed to make the list for a third award as well; Flow was longlisted for Film Not in the English Language (which, as mentioned before it was also one of the fifteen films shortlisted for International Feature at the Oscars), and The Wild Robot appeared on the list for Original Score. It’s safe to say there is no clear frontrunner here, but something is telling me to go with my gut and trust that Flow will ultimately bring it home.
Outside of Flow and The Wild Robot, I am reasonably confident in Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl and Inside Out 2 getting in; I don’t think either will win, but they’re there. Then comes the final spot, which could be just about anything. Critics didn’t particularly love Moana 2— its Rotten Tomatoes critic score was 61%, over thirty points lower than its predecessor— but it did make money, earning almost $1 billion worldwide. There isn’t another Disney Animation film in the mix, but I think the relative apathy toward it will hold it back. Memoir of a Snail, on the other hand, while much lesser known, is more loved by critics (94% RT) and has previous Oscar winner Adam Elliot as the writer/director. I was initially hesitant about having two stop motion films make it in the Oscar lineup, but with Moana 2 and The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim both underperforming, the stars could be aligning for Memoir of a Snail. However, watch out for That Christmas, which picked up a Best Feature Annie nomination and is longlisted for the BAFTA. While the film doesn’t have overwhelming praise (66% RT), Netflix is a major player in the Animated Feature category, and some may consider Vengeance Most Fowl more of an Aardman film than a Netflix one. Nonetheless, I think it’s down to these seven films in contention for the nomination.
Predicted Nominees
- Flow
- The Wild Robot
- Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
- Inside Out 2
- Memoir of a Snail
- Moana 2
- That Christmas
