Last summer, following the release of The Wild Robot, the Best Animated Feature category seemed locked up, but it quickly became a three-horse race between a Wild Robot, Wallace & Gromit, and a cat. It is not what I expected going into the season, but it has given some weight to a category that traditionally has been easy to predict. Over the past few weeks and months, it has become more convincing that we’re down to The Wild Robot, Flow, and Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, all of whom can take home the award on March 2nd.
However, this leaves Inside Out 2 and Memoir of a Snail on the outside, and there isn’t much of a path for them now. Neither film has made a real splash regarding the precursor nominations or wins. For Inside Out 2, it felt like a nomination was inevitable given Inside Out’s status as an Oscar winner and the fact it was the only Pixar film released last year; the studio is on an eight-year streak of earning a nomination in this category. Still, a win never seemed possible, especially after more animated films were released. Memoir of a Snail, on the other hand, should just be happy that they’re at the party and has to thank Moana 2 for being such a letdown that it opened a spot for them to get in. Even though director Adam Elliot is a former Oscar winner and Memoir of a Snail was beloved among critics, it seemed like it was fighting an uphill battle; one after one, films in front fell, and it could slot itself into the five. Still, it’s clear that even though they have made the list, there isn’t an actual path to it winning this award, which isn’t a discredit to the film in any way; there are just stronger contenders.
These stronger contenders are, as mentioned, The Wild Robot, Flow, and Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl. Starting with Vengeance Most Fowl, this film seemed like another “happy to be there” contender until the BAFTAs. The British went with one of their own in their Animated Feature and Children & Family Film categories, which wasn’t as surprising as some may think. It doesn’t help much to distinguish whether Flow or The Wild Robot will take home the Oscar, and while it still seems unlikely, a path has been opened for Vengeance Most Fowl to swoop in and steal the Oscar away from them both. It would be an unprecedented win, but the inventor and dog duo have been here before, as the previous Wallace & Gromit film in 2005 also won the Oscar for Best Animated Feature. I’m not predicting a repeat, but winning the BAFTA keeps them in the conversation.
This leaves The Wild Robot and Flow, both of whom I can see winning this award for various reasons. Regarding Flow, the Golden Globe, National Board of Review, and Annie Award (Independent) winner leads a campaign that consists of being “the small film that could,” which might be the exact reason it wins. This independent Latvian film has taken the country by storm as lines of up to 200 people waited to get a look at the Golden Globe that was on display. Its budget was almost $70 million less than that of The Wild Robot, and Latvia, as well as the world, has engaged with this movie, earning it over $20 million at the box office and making it the #1 movie on Max only a few days after its streaming release. The marketing is also doing a tremendous job at highlighting the A-List support for Flow. There have been trailers and posters highlighting reactions from well-known auteurs such as Benny Safdie, Wes Anderson, Barry Jenkins, and Guillermo del Toro, a previous Best Animated Feature Oscar winner.
However, what The Wild Robot has going for it is precisely what Flow is hanging its hat on: the fact that it’s not an indie film. No independent animated film has ever won the Oscar for Best Animated Feature. Flow’s budget of around $3 million is almost $30 million less than Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit and around $16 million less than Spirited Away, whose $19 million budget is the current lowest Oscar winner in this category. The Wild Robot is not only a DreamWorks film, a studio that won the very first Animated Feature Oscar with Shrek in 2002, but it’s the last entirely in-house DreamWorks film. Regarding resumes, there isn’t a stronger one in this category as this film won Animated Feature at the Producers Guild of America, the Critics Choice Awards, and the Annie for Feature (Flow was nominated in Independent instead of Feature). Filmmaker Chris Sanders is also on his fourth nomination and is a well-known name in the industry, and the fact of the matter is that people voting might believe it’s “his time” to win an Oscar. While Flow managed a surprise International Feature nomination, likely edging out BAFTA favorite Kneecap, The Wild Robot was able to secure an Original Score nomination for Kris Bowers and a surprise Best Sound nomination as well.
Everything is leaning The Wild Robot’s way and predicting it would be the safe and maybe correct opinion. However, the international branch of the Academy does have a prominent voice in deciding who wins, and Flow picking up a nomination in International Feature shows me that not only did this branch watch the movie, but they loved it enough to nominate it over other strong non-American films. The Wild Robot is a spectacle of visual animation, but the artistry and the storytelling of Flow has a chance to be just as, or even more, effective than that of The Wild Robot. A year after Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron upset favorite Across the Spider-Verse, I think a similar thing will happen with Flow’s more subdued and introspective approach ultimately taking home the Oscar. It’s an extremely tight race, and if The Wild Robot wins, it will be because the people behind the film earned it—it is still one of the best movies of 2024, period. However, the campaign team behind Flow has done an excellent job of highlighting the independent and international nature of the film. I think that will be enough to overtake The Wild Robot. If Flow does happen to win, which I think it should, it will hopefully open a pathway for more animation filmmakers across the globe to see they don’t have to have buckets of money and fancy gear to make something meaningful.
Will Win: Flow
Could Win: The Wild Robot
Should Win: Flow
