While still on the ballot, it feels safe to write that Karla Sofía Gascón is out of contention for Best Actress. The late-breaking, but still in time to sway the voters, scandal has poisoned her historic nomination. Though stranger things have happened at the Oscars, Gascón winning Best Actress is extremely unlikely. The final four women, though, are not in as close a race as they may seem.
Each actress has picked up several awards from both precursors and critics groups, but Demi Moore has claimed the largest share of the latest awards. Despite The Substance’s genre trappings and its divisiveness among cinephiles, this film has captured the hearts and minds of awards voters in a way none of us could have imagined, and some of us had only just hoped for.
Strange, avant-garde, and boundary-pushing films have been sneaking into more of the sacred canonical spaces recently. Along with them come the daring and transformative power of the actors on screen. This push toward a wider net of what an awards film can be mixed with an actress who has never gotten her due is the perfect alchemy for where the Oscars and the Academy, at large, currently stand. Half the votes for Moore will be from the new school. Half will be the old school. To claim a frontrunner is not to count out all other nominees, though.
Fernanda Torres has become a strong contender, stunning at the Golden Globes by winning Best Actress in a Drama. With the Globes’ split categories, all her competition at the Oscars was in the Comedy or Musical category.
Since the award season started, Cynthia Erivo has been on every list of Best Actress contenders. Many thought that Wicked would be overshadowed by its release date partner, Gladiator II, but the reviews, the accolades, and the achievements of Wicked have been solid. The one nagging thing that could pull Erivo down is that her performance is one-half of a partnership. Wicked has two lead performances, and while Erivo’s Elphaba takes center stage more often, without Ariana Grande’s Galinda/Glinda, there is no Wicked.
Mikey Madison is so highly talented. She sheds all pretenses and becomes Ani through and through. It’s such a raw and genuine performance that it has to be recognized. Yet, as she is still early in her career, it’s a performance that she will have to live up to repeatedly for the rest of her career. If she has one thing against her, the Academy may see this nomination as a test. Can she do it again? Can she build a better Ani? As good as she is, they will want more from her with her next lauded performance.
That leaves the legacy/career achievement/victory lap, whatever you want to call it, Oscar going to Demi Moore. It would be one thing if this were a year with a thin field, and her performance was good enough. But, this staggering performance in this bountiful year of great performances by actresses shows that despite what modifier the press will attach to her win the next day, Demi Moore will have won a well-deserved award.
