Fall Festivals are upon us, and Venice, Telluride, and TIFF have all begun screening some of the year’s biggest films, marking the start of Awards Season. From now until March 3, 2025 (the day after next year’s Academy Awards), studios will be advertising not only their films but also their talent in front of and behind the screen in an effort to call themselves Oscar winners or nominees. However, the festival season means some speculation can go out the window, and the races become even more chaotic.
In each of my previous Supporting Actor posts, I have not only had Samuel L. Jackson as a frontrunner, but I have been relatively confident that, given his history with the material of The Piano Lesson, likability among his peers, and lack of a competitive Oscar win—he has only been nominated once for 1992’s Pulp Fiction and recently won an honorary Oscar in 2022—this would be his time. While the reactions for The Piano Lesson were glowing, the ones for Jackson’s performance were not. This isn’t to say his performance was bad, but the early sentiment was that he wasn’t given as much material as initially thought. Danielle Deadwyler and John David Washington received the most praise in the film. At the same time, Ray Fisher, who could find a way into this competition, not Jackson, was prioritized among the supporting males. I guess it’s never over until it’s over, but it’s nearing midnight for Samuel L. Jackson’s chances this season.
On the other hand, a person who hasn’t even been on my radar has now jumped into the top 5: Guy Pearce for The Brutalist. Brady Corbet’s Vox Lux (2018) is one of the more divisive films of recent memory, with some calling it a masterpiece while others seemingly can’t stand it. Well, initial reactions to The Brutalist have people more in unison regarding their thoughts on the film, and the consensus is pretty spectacular. Once again, the “masterpiece” moniker is being thrown around; however, it seems like this time it might stick as comparisons to American epics such as The Godfather and There Will Be Blood have been flowing nonstop and across the board, including positive responses for Guy Pearce’s role as Harrison Lee Van Buren, a post-WWII tycoon. Pearce, who has never been nominated before, has entered this category in a significant way, looking for not only his first nomination but his first win as well. Brady Corbet won the Silver Lion – the youngest Silver Lion winner ever and only the fourth American winner – and shortly after, A24 scooped up The Brutalist for US distribution, with an Oscar-qualifying release beginning December 20.
Another film that needed to find US distribution was The Apprentice. In my previous update, I mentioned removing Jeremy Strong, given the uncertainty of whether The Apprentice would even be released this year as many studios declined distribution and whether the legal case brought upon by Donald Trump (the film’s main subject) would force a significant change to the final cut. Both questions have been answered with Briarcliff Entertainment distributing the film, giving it a pre-election release date of October 11, and with former President Trump dropping the legal case in hopes that the film will “fade away.” If the initial reactions from Cannes mean anything, not only will The Apprentice not fade away, it seems as though we could be talking about it for months to come with both Sebastian Stan and Jeremy Strong firmly back in the race for Actor and Supporting Actor, respectively.
However, like he had to do for so many Emmy seasons before, Strong will have a familiar opponent in Kieran Culkin, with whom he has shared much time on and off screen. Culkin is starring in A Real Pain, and while it might be nearing midnight for some nominees, the chariot has just arrived for others. Now that more films are being seen and performances are being recognized, it is becoming clear who will and won’t be a factor throughout this season, and even though I had my doubts, it looks like Culkin will be among those few.
A pair that is becoming less likely now is Conclave’s Stanley Tucci and John Lithgow. There weren’t any adverse reactions, quite the opposite, but similar to Samuel L. Jackson, they were not mentioned as a highlight. I think it’s safe to say Lithgow is a reasonably long shot to receive a nomination, and while Tucci still is a possibility, it’s becoming increasingly unlikely.
A24 has almost an embarrassment of riches regarding the Supporting Actor category, and as mentioned before, it’s only gotten stronger. Luca Guadagnino’s Queer was, and still is, poised to have a reasonably impactful award run, but the first reactions to the film were more mediocre than believed, with some loving it and others feeling it was too ambitious. Drew Starkey has been singled out by almost everyone involved with the film, claiming this is his “star-is-born” moment, but reactions have been fairly quiet, singling out Daniel Craig’s performance to a far greater extent. If Queer can attract the voters, and if Starkey is given a strong campaign, it is still possible, but with A24 picking up The Brutalist this late, it could mean that their ambitions have moved on. It’s also still possible for A Different Man’s Adam Pearson, who is making the runs, and who could be the main actor throughout the press run, given that co-star Sebastian Stan will also have The Apprentice releasing in early October.
Another A24 release, Sing Sing, has been labeled an Oscar favorite for months, even as far back as the previous Oscars. However, the strategy A24 is taking with it is… interesting. Sing Sing had a run at Fall film festivals last year when it aired at TIFF in 2023, and it made the rounds during some of the Spring festival season, but its release for general audiences has been relatively quiet. Not only that, A24 has not marketed or pushed this film in any way which could cause it to fall behind, and in a year as loaded as this one is playing out to be – we still haven’t heard from films like Gladiator II, A Complete Unknown, The Fire Inside, or Blitz – Sing Sing could be a victim of peaking too early and not riding the wave throughout. If that happens, Clarence Maclin could wind up missing out.
One of the most intriguing situations is Saturday Night, a film that I already believed to be the frontrunner for the TIFF People’s Choice Award – an award which has been pretty telling of a film’s Oscar chances – and after the reactions out of Telluride, I have no reason to believe this won’t take the prize—a massive ensemble filled with legendary actors, both young and old, playing legendary people and comedians. The first reactions to the film didn’t have anyone screaming that the performances would be nominated, but that doesn’t mean there’s no chance for someone like Cooper Hoffman, Cory Michael Smith, Dylan O’Brien, or even Willem Dafoe to hear their name called Oscar nomination morning. I don’t have any of them predicted, but I have to note the possibility.
Who’s Out?
This list is similar to my previous regarding who is in my 10, but the lineup has drastically changed. For starters, I have removed Brian Tyree Henry and John Lithgow. The Fire Inside got some good reactions out of TIFF, but nothing screamed that it would be an awards player or that Henry is a contender; this could change, but for now, he falls just outside the 10. As for Lithgow, the lack of recognition is telling enough, especially when his co-supporting actor contender has not only a better shot but is starting to fall off himself.
Regarding the 6-10 slots, Clarence Maclin falls to six on my list. Will he ultimately end up with the nomination, possibly? Can he still win the Oscar? Absolutely. However, nothing that A24 has been doing has given me confidence in the film outside of a few nominations, and with the studio picking up The Brutalist, they could be too loaded, and Maclin could fall through; there still is a chance, but Sing Sing needs to start making noise soon. Stanley Tucci falls to seven for Conclave, followed by Drew Starkey at eight for Queer. Samuel L. Jackson stays in my ten, but the early reactions have caused me to drop him from a hard one to nine. I guess there is still a possibility, but it’s starting to look unlikely. Adam Pearson stays strong and rounds out the ten.
Who’s In?
Two-time Oscar winner Denzel Washington might join an elite group of 3 time Male Acting Oscar winners alongside Walter Brennan, Jack Nicholson, and Daniel Day-Lewis. Gladiator II, even a good movie, is still to be determined as no one has seen it, and very few have even seen actual footage of it outside of the one trailer. Still, based on the trailer and Denzel’s presence as a performer, I have no reason not to put him at the top of my list for now. With a strong campaign, Edward Norton follows him up and could overtake him—a well-regarded actor nominated three times, with his last coming in 2015 for Birdman. The subject matter regarding the 1965 Newport Folk Festival means that Norton will likely have free reign to be animated, angry, regretful, and ultimately sorrowful at the decisions made by his character, Pete Seger. From the trailer, it is obvious he will be a significant part of the film – I’m looking at you, Samuel L. Jackson, and The Piano Lesson – and given he has yet to receive an Oscar win, maybe this is his time.
Guy Pearce shows up on this list for the first time this entire year for me, and since he is in a film that has been seen and has been highly regarded, there is a real chance he could take this from Norton and Washington. I am going under the assumption that The Brutalist will receive a release date this year to qualify; if it doesn’t, it would be a massive mistake on A24’s part. The trio of Pearce, Adrian Brody, and Felicity Jones have all received extremely high remarks for their performances and are all in consideration to win for The Brutalist. I would be shocked if, at this point, Pearce wasn’t in the final five; I think these top three, no matter how you position them, are all reasonably safe for a nomination and are in contention to win.
This brings us to the final two; this pairing could go one hundred ways. I have two of the Roy brothers (if you haven’t seen Succession, you might not get the joke) rounding out the list of five. The Apprentice being granted not only a release but an untampered (we assume) one means that this film catapults back into the Oscar race, at least for Jeremy Strong and Sebastian Stan. A clip has been released displaying the vintage 80s production design and visual style, and Strong looks fantastic playing Roy Cohn, even in such a small scene. Given the uncertainty surrounding some other supporting performances, he is back into my five. He is followed by Kieran Culkin, who rounds out my list of five. Culkin gets the advantage over Clarence Maclin strictly because people are seeing him. Culkin was in Telluride sporting a lightning strike of a hairdo and speaking with people in Q&As. He has done the campaigning thing plenty of times, especially recently, as he was the star of Succession season 4, which led to his first Emmy win. It’s safe to say he is high on the people’s minds. Regarding both actors, Bryan Cranston can tell you how a strong television run could lead to an Oscar nomination because people just want to see it happen.
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
2. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
3. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
4. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
5. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Next Up:
6. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
7. Drew Starkey (Queer)
8. Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
9. Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson)
10. Adam Pearson (A Different Man)
