A few days ago, BAFTA’s longlists provided critical new data on the Oscar race. Seven of the titles I’d penciled in for Best Cinematography made the first round of cuts: The Brutalist, Nosferatu, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, and Gladiator II. Instead of going to Nickel Boys, Joker: Folie à Deux, and Blitz as I had predicted they would, the remaining three slots were filled by Civil War, The Substance, and (in one of the best things to happen this season) Anora. The only film of this set that didn’t appear on my just-published (pre-BAFTA-longlist) breakdown of the season’s Cinematography contenders is Civil War (which Chasing the Gold editor Shadan Larki warned I was underestimating). Maria took the day’s biggest stumble (missing not only Cinematography but also Leading Actress for Angelina Jolie, where it was thought safest), followed by Nickel Boys.
Now that BAFTA has narrowed the field, it’s significantly easier to predict how the British Society of Cinematographers’ lineup will look. Even when the two voting bodies diverge, the guild’s discrepant picks still get longlisted (e.g., Saltburn, Tár, Cyrano). With that piece of the puzzle in place, we can more or less picture the American Society of Cinematographers’ nominations and, finally, the Academy’s. The Brutalist, Nosferatu, and Conclave all showed up as expected and are likely to be the annual trio of Oscar finalists nominated by all three major precursors (ASC, BSC, BAFTA). Emilia Pérez also turned out to be a safe choice (the only precursor it might miss is ASC).
A Complete Unknown may look like a shock considering few thought it stood a chance, but its inclusion makes plenty of sense. BAFTA members are fans of both Phedon Papamichael and music biopics. If Conclave slips at ASC (the group did overlook the similarly styled Tár) while A Complete Unknown gets nominated, could that film be this season’s third ASC/BSC/BAFTA contender (even if Conclave ultimately gets an Oscar nomination)?
Joker: Folie a Deux was always a risky bet. For the controversial sequel, missing a group of ten selected by some of Gotham City’s most frequent tourists is pretty disqualifying. Now that it wasn’t longlisted by BAFTA, the prospect of a BSC nomination has essentially disappeared.
The Girl with the Needle, on the other hand, didn’t need BAFTA to stay competitive. The path I predicted for it—Camerimage, ASC, Oscar—is still open. Bardo and El Conde nabbed their sole Oscar nods with that combination, and neither was longlisted by BAFTA. The Girl with the Needle did, however, appear in International Feature, which means the oversight in Cinematography wasn’t an accident. But that may not mean much, considering Bardo appeared on BAFTA’s 2022-23 Best Non-English Film longlist while being omitted from Cinematography (El Conde was overlooked in both). If the Danish International Feature contender comes up short, I’ll most likely swap it in my Oscar picks for A Complete Unknown.
Nickel Boys also didn’t need a BAFTA nomination, but a longlist mention seemed possible enough considering this was the only group that included The Zone of Interest in their final lineup. Unlike Joker, Nickel Boys actually has a chance of being revived by ASC. Without a guild mention, though, the film’s road to an Oscar nomination is practically nonexistent: only one film has ever made the cut with just a Critics’ Choice nomination (2015’s The Hateful Eight).
The Substance finally showed strength in this category; Gladiator II was to be expected given BAFTA’s history with Ridley Scott; Blitz is officially out of the race; Anora might actually be competitive for a BSC nomination, but I’m biased and have long been looking for an excuse to predict it.
Now our attention moves to ASC, which unveils its lineup on Thursday, January 9. BSC will weigh in with their picks on January 11.
ASC Predictions:
The Brutalist
Nosferatu
Conclave
The Girl with the Needle
A Complete Unknown
(alt. Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nickel Boys)
BSC Predictions:
The Brutalist
Nosferatu
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Anora
(alt. A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Civil War)
BAFTA Predictions:
The Brutalist
Nosferatu
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
A Complete Unknown
(alt. Anora, Dune: Part Two, Civil War)
Oscar Predictions:
The Brutalist
Nosferatu
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
The Girl with the Needle
(alt. A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys)
