More awards and nominees are announced daily, making who will ultimately earn a nomination more explicit. However, there are still a few people, some of whom have been performing well and others who haven’t, who are right on the cusp of hearing their name included in Oscar 5. With a little over a month until nominations are announced on January 17, we’re getting down to the nitty-gritty of award season, but let’s cut to the chase and see where I think the race is as of now.

Frontrunners

There are three people in the Oscar five I feel confident in: Kieran Culkin, Guy Pearce, and Yura Borisov. Culkin has been on a tear with critic groups picking up wins and nominations almost everywhere. Pearce hasn’t been as successful in winning but has consistently shown up. Nonetheless, the one thing that Culkin, Pearce, and Borisov share is that their films feel, for now, relatively safe in the Best Picture lineup. While a film showing up in Picture does not necessarily guarantee an Oscar nomination, it helps to solidify who might be in the lead. Guy Pearce is strong in The Brutalist, a film in contention to win Best Picture. I don’t think Pearce will win the Supporting Actor award, but he has a locked-up nomination. At the same time, while I don’t believe that Kieran Culkin’s A Real Pain is in contention as a top Best Picture contender, Jesse Eisenberg is looking decisive for a nomination in the screenplay category and could be a contender for the lead actor nomination. A Real Pain has been showing up in the right places, which could make this an instance where Culkin carries the film more than the other way around; however, if A Real Pain does surprisingly miss a Best Picture nomination, which is still a possibility even if I do feel confident it is getting in, his winning chance could become shaky no matter how well he does with critic groups.

Yura Borisov is a name I have been on the fence about for a while. Everything has been pointing toward him picking up a nomination; Anora is a frontrunner in multiple categories, including Picture, and Borisov has a strong presence as the only character who seemingly feels bad for Mikey Madison’s Ani, serving as the audience stand-in for the film, and he sticks with her throughout the second and third acts. However, something has been holding me back from feeling that he is locked into a nomination. Then, I took a step back and thought about it, and all of my worries subsided to the point where not only do I believe he is confidently in, I think he has the best chance, if anyone, to pull an upset over Culkin. As mentioned, he is the audience surrogate, but he also holds his own in his first English language film, providing loud and quiet moments that offer him more than enough scenes to consider him for the award. However, my biggest detractor was him not being a well-known “name,” but in recent years, with supporting performances, both actor and actress, how much does having a “name” really mean? 

Troy Kotsur came out of nowhere and won supporting actor for the Best Picture-winning film CODA, and Ke Huy Quan came off a 30-year hiatus to win for, again, the Best Picture-winning film Everything Everywhere All at Once. When it comes to Best Supporting Actress, every winner this decade has been a first-time nominee, and even though that’s a vastly different conversation, it looks like that streak may continue. So, how important is it for the Supporting Actor to be well-known? If you want to argue last year with Robert Downey Jr. winning for his performance in Oppenheimer, I would counter by saying we are on a three-year streak of the Supporting Actor winner coming from the Best Picture winner. Anora is an easy top 3, maybe top 2, contender for Best Picture, and many, including myself and the Awards Editor here at InSession Film, Shadan Larki, have Anora currently winning Best Picture. Culkin looks like an overwhelmingly strong frontrunner for this award, but when you think about it, Borisov may not be as far off as we might think.

Who’s Left?

Behind Culkin, Pearce, and Borisov are a bunch of question marks. Four people are in contention for the final two spots, which can change any day. I am going to start by talking about Denzel Washington for Gladiator II. I should be able to say, “He’s Denzel Washington,” and that be it; he has the same effect as Meryl Streep, where it seems like if there is a time to honor him, the Academy will. However, even though the film hasn’t been doing well overall, he has consistently shown up on almost every supporting actor list, whether it be the Golden Globes or the regional critic awards. Also, like Meryl Streep, it doesn’t matter how his films perform overall – of his last four acting nominations, only one of them received a Best Picture nom, and the other three, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Roman J. Israel Esq., and Flight, picked up three, one, and two nominations respectively – Oscar voters love Denzel. If he had missed somewhere or begun to miss, maybe I would feel shaky about his placement, but there has been nothing to sway my confidence that he will be in the five.

My confidence begins to wane in the final spot, and even thinking about who will get in and who will miss is stressing me out. As of this moment… I’m going with Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown. Norton plays Pete Seeger, the man who helped Bob Dylan rise to fame in the early ’60s, and the reason I am going with him over the other two is that not only did Norton show up at the Globes where some other contenders didn’t, but it’s starting to feel like A Complete Unknown is going to get a Best Picture nomination. No one has been campaigning harder than Timothee Chalamet this season, and it might pay off getting the young actor his first-ever win, and Norton, who shares most of his scenes with Chalamet, could be along for the ride. There was a time when I felt like Norton could have the narrative to win, and while I don’t think he will win for this performance or in this year, I could still see a nomination for the veteran actor.

First Out?

This takes us to the two actors right on the cusp of being in: Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing and Hugh Grant for Heretic. Maclin’s shakiness in predicting him comes from missing the Globe nomination. While I know it’s essential not to put too much stock into the Golden Globes, Maclin and Sing Sing missing showed me that maybe the film isn’t as big with international voters, and not showing up on the London Film Critics Awards nominations further proves that thought. The international voters aren’t the most important thing, but they’re a massive factor that hasn’t been going in Maclin’s direction. It also doesn’t help his case that Culkin is taking many of the critics’ wins that could have given him the boost he needs. Even though he is excellent, Maclin is playing himself in Sing Sing, not a version of himself; he is playing Clarence Maclin. The film is partially based on his time in jail with the RTA (Rehabilitation Through the Arts), and I have to wonder if the “he is playing himself, how hard could it be?” sentiments will start to come his way. Come nomination morning, I could see Norton or Maclin picking up that final spot, and I would love to see Maclin rewarded for such a powerful performance, but I just don’t have confidence in him right now.

Then we have Hugh Grant for Heretic, who surprisingly showed up at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. While he has been earning nominations in the Lead Actor category, I think he not only has a better shot in the supporting category; I think if he is nominated, this is the category he will fall to. I understand that A24 is pushing him to Lead Actor, but regarding the film, he plays a supporting role to Sophie Thatcher and Chloe East. The role starts incredibly showy for Grant as he spews bombastic monologues about religion that Oscar voters traditionally love; however, after the first 45-ish minutes of the movie, Grant only appears periodically and lacks any significant scenes like he had initially. At the end of the day, I don’t think he will show up in either the Lead or Supporting category, but my “hot take” is that if he does, it will be here.

Even though I said only two actors had a real chance to earn that last spot in Oscar 5, Jeremy Strong is in a weird middle ground: on the cusp of a nomination and being forgotten entirely. One of the more surprising nominations at the Golden Globes was Jeremy Strong, who showed up for his role in The Apprentice as Roy Cohn. He has not been showing up many places and hasn’t won anywhere for this role, but he appeared in both the Globe nominations and the London Film Critics nominations, two areas in which Maclin missed. I don’t think a nomination is likely for Strong, and even less likely if Sebastian Stan’s portrayal of Donald Trump isn’t nominated alongside him, but a surprise BAFTA nomination and a surprise snub for Maclin would make things very interesting.

We’re Still Here!

Well… kinda? Rounding out the top 10 are Adam Pearson for A Different Man and Stanley Tucci for Conclave. In Pearson’s case, like Strong, I don’t think this is likely to happen without Sebastian Stan being nominated alongside him. Pearson is fantastic and one of my favorite supporting performances of the year. Still, he hasn’t been showing anywhere to make me feel he can pick up a nomination. He is charming, magnetic, and energetic in A Different Man, but he does not have the overall support. Stanley Tucci has a chance only because Conclave is one of the top three contenders for Best Picture. Ralph Fiennes will get the Best Actor nomination, and Isabella Rossellini is campaigning hard for herself, which could mean Tucci’s name is along for the ride, but I wouldn’t put money on it.

That said, here is where I currently see the race.

My Prediction:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
2. Yura Borisov, Anora
3. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
5. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

6. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
7. Hugh Grant, Heretic
8. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man
10. Stanley Tucci, Conclave