Saturday, April 19, 2025

Chasing the Gold: Final Oscar Predictions (Supporting Actress)

The supporting acting categories feel far more locked in than the lead categories ever do. Even in a year with many strong contenders, there is always one that takes the lead and stays there. This year, there’s no one coming close to the success that Zoë Saldaña is having in this category. Though, she still has some stiff competition.

The weakest performance in this category is Felicity Jones in The Brutalist. She has about two scenes where she commands our attention. One is the strange, unappealing, and discomfiting scene where she attempts to give a bit of sexual gratification to her beleaguered husband. The other is when she attempts to shame and humiliate her husband’s benefactor and is dragged away. That’s it. Otherwise, she’s very forgettable, and that’s a very bad thing in a three-and-a-half-hour movie.

The next weakest contender still poses a significant threat. Isabella Rossellini is Hollywood royalty who has finally earned her first Oscar nomination. She is the performance that is the truest essence of this category. Her character is seen but not heard for most of the film until her grand climax. The scene is the one in which her character stands up for all women who serve the Catholic Church. It’s powerful, commanding, and over very quickly, but it has large ramifications for the rest of the plot. Conclave hinges on the machinations and backroom political dealings, and this nomination feels like it’s the Academy’s way of saying, “Sorry we overlooked you for decades.”

Monica Barbaro is one of three actresses in this category who did her own singing. She was the only one who had to match the iconic voice and pitch of beloved folk singer Joan Baez, though. In A Complete Unknown, Barbaro is very good at reacting to the unpleasantness of Bob Dylan’s (Timothée Chalamet) misanthropy. She never gets a grand scene like the others, but she does consistently exude a heartbreaking beauty in her performance pieces and in those reaction shots.

It’s tough to see a co-lead be reduced to a supporting status, but here Ariana Grande is. She is a fiery, funny, and ferocious performer in Wicked. She steals scenes with a look, a gesture, and a perfectly placed note. Her character’s signature song, “Popular,” is so well executed by Grande that it will likely go down next to the original cast as a repeat listen for fans of the show. Yet, that scene-stealing, megaphone-wielding power overpowers rather than supports, and it is a tragedy that this performance couldn’t compete where it really belongs.

The same could be said of Zoë Saldaña’s part in Emilia Pérez. Her character is the fulcrum on which the action hinges. Yet, her character also supports the titular character’s transformational journey, so it’s a give-and-take with this type of category fraud. 

What’s not in doubt is that in spite of the unevenness of the film around her, Saldaña’s performance is great. She is engaging and has an incredible physical presence in the dreamlike dance sequences. Her movements have been honed by years of action and sci-fi movie choreography to give her dance style a combative but elegant form. She’s won every precursor award that matters, and it’s almost assured that Zoë Saldaña’s name will be read on Oscar night.

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