Saturday, April 19, 2025

Chasing the Gold: Final Oscar Predictions (Supporting Actor)

On Sunday, March 2, one of Yura Borisov, Kieran Culkin, Edward Norton, Guy Pearce, or Jeremy Strong will be able to call themselves an Oscar winner. It’s an excellent crop of nominees, and any of them winning this award would be deserved; however, the race is pretty much over with Kieran Culkin sweeping the season. Culkin’s performance in A Real Pain has won the actor over 35 awards between critics and industry to this point, including major precursors such as the Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA), Screen Actors Guild (SAG), as well as the Indie Spirit and National Board of Review Award. He’s more than likely won where he’s been nominated, and I don’t think that will stop regarding the Oscar. His recent win at SAG practically closed up any possibility for an upset, which was still an option for Edward Norton and Yura Borisov until the pre-cursor sweep was finalized. If anyone were to pull a massive upset, it would likely be Borisov since Anora is a top-three competitor for Best Picture. There is also a case for Norton since he is a well-known actor who has yet to win, but truthfully, it would take a miracle for Culkin to lose the award.

While this means the win might not be as exhilarating as other categories, with multiple contenders battling it out, it is still an exciting achievement for Kieran Culkin. An actor who was thrown into the spotlight at 7 years old, playing the younger brother to his actual older brother Macaulay Culkin in Home Alone (1990). From the beginning of his career, he was relegated to side/character actor roles. For most of his career, that’s about all the work he could get, with his most significant role coming as Scott Pilgrim’s (Michael Cera) roommate in Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2010). It wasn’t until 2018, when Succession first aired on HBO, that Culkin was given a chance to shine as a performer, which he did from the first episode, stealing scenes throughout. Even so, he was overlooked for years until Season 4, when he won a Golden Globe and an Emmy for his performance as Roman Roy.

He is now getting the recognition he deserves, and his performance in A Real Pain is terrific and worthy of a win in this category. His character, Benji, is a firecracker full of emotions and not afraid to share his feelings. If his acceptance speeches are any indicator, he may also be this way himself. Being thrust into such a breakneck industry at a young age can be difficult for any person; it’s one of the reasons why most child actors don’t pan out in the industry later in life. However, in Culkin’s case, the slow grind has been met with confidence that has helped him in his career and A Real Pain. Benji is sometimes the best and worst person to be around, not because he is malicious in any way but because that confidence spills over into the character. He is not afraid to say how he feels, but he also seems grateful for the opportunities he is given. I am not sure how his Oscar speech will go, but I know it will be memorable for more reasons than one.

However, he is still just my second favorite of the nominees. I have been vocal about Yura Borisov’s performance in Anora because I think it is one of the more difficult ones I have seen recently. This isn’t because he is overly eccentric or gives physical performance; quite the opposite, he displays a level of subtlety that isn’t as common in film today (and is needed for a film that is as “loud” as Anora). You learn the character through small throwaway lines, and you feel for him because his actions and body language clearly show his care for Ani (Mikey Madison). It’s the kind of performance that I cling to immensely, and he would be my vote if I had one in this category.

Will Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Could Win: No One

Should Win: Yura Borisov, Anora

Jacob Throneberry
Jacob Throneberry
Jacob Throneberry has always had a love of film and a desire to write. He is pursuing his Master's Degree at the University of North Carolina - Wilmington and is a member of the North Carolina Film Critics Association. He is on X (formerly Twitter) and Letterboxd at @jtberry97.

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