With the 97th Annual Academy Awards nominees being announced on January 23, the time has come for my final predictions for the Best Director five. The landscape has taken shape over the last few weeks, but there’s still some uncertainty around who could land the final two spots. Below are my official predictions with nominees listed in alphabetical order.
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) – Corbet took home the prize for Best Director at the Golden Globes, and seems to be the most consistent presence in this race. I’d go as far as to say he is the favorite to win at the Oscars, too. The Brutalist is finally releasing wide and its legend continues to grow, primarily due to the excellent press tour Corbet has embarked on since the film hit the festival circuit last fall.
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) – I can’t believe I’m saying this, but The Substance is happening. I believe that this film is going to solidify the differences between this new Academy and the old guard. A lot of the love for this film has indeed been channeled into giving awards to Demi Moore (who is winning Best Actress, by the way), but in many cases, Fargeat has been included in the nominations alongside Moore and Margaret Qualley’s performances.
Edward Berger (Conclave) – Edward Berger hasn’t missed many nominations for Conclave this season and that momentum is going to carry him to a nomination at the Oscars. He missed a nomination for All Quiet on the Western Front, a film that had tremendous below-the-line support. With a longer awards campaign this time around, Berger will hear his name called when the nominations are announced.
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez) – Despite Emilia Perez being the most divisive film of the awards season, it keeps picking up wins and nominations when it matters. Audiard is incredibly famous with international bodies, and the Academy has more international members than ever before. This support is undoubtedly going to carry him through to the Best Director five.
Sean Baker (Anora) – It’s fair to say that Anora’s season-long front-runner status has hurt its chances to actually win a lot of awards, but the campaign hasn’t completely gone off the rails yet. Similar to Corbet with The Brutalist, Anora would not exist in any form outside of Sean Baker’s mind. Baker’s fingerprints are all over this movie and he is likely to be rewarded with a nomination.
Of my list above, only one doesn’t match up with the Director’s Guild of America (DGA) nominees: Coralie Fargeat. James Mangold was recognized for A Complete Unknown in her stead, which came as a surprise. While a DGA nomination is a solid indicator for the Academy’s nominations, the two lists have only matched five times since the DGA made the shift to five nominees in 1970 to match the Academy. The last time the DGAs matched the Oscars was 2010, so there’s still hope for wiggle room in that fifth spot.
While I’m fairly confident in my picks for the final five nominees, there are a couple of directors that I wouldn’t be surprised to see take someone’s spot come nomination day. The three next-best contenders are RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light),
