It’s been wonderful to have such a competitive race for Best Actress. It makes the job of predicting who will be announced in this category on January 23rd all the more difficult.
Being that it is such a variable race, I have created a list of potential surprises or spoilers for my main list, but could easily be an alternate reality where there were slightly different votes. Many of the performances on the alternative list could easily jump to my main list to supplant anyone I’ve placed there. Here are my official predictions for Best Actress.
The contenders are listed in alphabetical order.
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) – Cynthia Erivo’s performance is powerful. She takes on a beloved character from one of the most successful Broadway musicals of all time without reservations. Her take on Elphaba is just as indelible as the actresses who have taken the role before her.
Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) – Like Cynthia Erivo, Karla Sofía Gascón pulls off the double whammy of emotionally raw acting and singing her heart out. She goes deep to pair the cartel lord Emilia was with the philanthropist she’s become. It’s an enthralling story arc to watch develop, made stronger by a great performance.
Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) – Nicole Kidman is an actress who leaves it all on the screen. She takes challenging roles and absolutely knocks them out of the park. It’s no different with the raw, vulnerable, and emotionally naked work she does in Babygirl.
Mikey Madison (Anora) – Mikey Madison is Ani. She becomes Ani so wholly and so completely that it’s easy to get lost in the story. It feels less like a performance than a possession, a channeling of a spirit. She’s the clear front-runner of the category and the only one I would say is an absolute lock for a nomination
Demi Moore (The Substance) – There has been a recent swell of support for The Substance, which has been great for the momentum of Demi Moore. It’s her performance that makes much of the wackiness of The Substance work. She finally found a role that is a match for her talents. It doesn’t hurt either that she just won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy, either.
What follows is the alternate reality list. Five more potential nominees, each of whom has more than a slight shot at making the final five announced on January 23rd.
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) – This is a performance I haven’t seen, but the buzz is palpable. Marianne Jean-Baptiste is a past nominee, also for a Mike Leigh-directed performance, so she’s found a collaborator who helps her to achieve great work. The fact that she has enthusiastic support from many critics organizations can’t hurt either.
Angelina Jolie (Maria) – Yes, most, if not all, pundits have Angelina Jolie in their list of final five nominees. Yes, the performance is excellent and a welcome return to form for a beloved performer. Yet, Netflix is otherwise occupied, and as the film hasn’t been showing up in many other major categories at the precursors, it could be tough for Jolie to be her film’s sole nominee.
June Squibb (Thelma) – I’ve been touting June Squibb for a while now. She didn’t make the list for the Golden Globes, which would have raised her profile significantly, and she’s missed out on many critics’ nominations. It would be a wonderful coup for her to snag a spot for her deserving performance.
Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) – I haven’t seen this film, but I’m listing it here because the performance has become noteworthy. The proponents of Fernanda Torres have been very vocal. She just won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama, right on the cusp of Oscar nomination voting, raising her chances significantly.
Zendaya (Challengers) – I have been on the Zendaya train since the beginning. She is such a fearsome presence in Challengers. The role is mature and so expertly performed. It’s a shame there can only be five nominees.
