Many of the precursor award shows have a single screenplay category. Depending on the year, it can be a mix of original and adapted. Most of them this year have had a focus toward original screenplays. If it was just five screenplays at the Oscars, this year would have a strong skewing toward original stories. The buzziest films this season have been the originals.
It stands to reason, though, that with such a healthy crop of potential nominees, many will be left out. Only five original screenplays will be named in the Best Original Screenplay lineup on January 23rd. These will likely represent additional nominations to their respective film’s overall total, and it won’t be that this is where a film’s sole nomination comes from. With such a healthy crop, there is wiggle room, so I will make sure and provide some alternatives, spoilers, or surprises that could usurp any one of my predicted nominees.
These lists are presented in alphabetical order.
Anora (Sean Baker) – While Anora is rife with Sean Baker’s trademark controlled chaos, there is a great story at its heart. It’s not an easy fairy tale to swallow, but as it takes shape, we can’t help but think of its protagonist in a different light. It’s lyrical and heartbreaking amid the sex and madcap pursuit.
The Brutalist (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold) – This is one I haven’t seen for myself, but it has been a presence on every single blog, best-of list, and nomination list it could possibly be on. The storytelling is likely as epic in scale as its ambitious runtime and breadth of plot. The nod here will be another notch in The Brutalist‘s cap.
Hard Truths (Mike Leigh) – I haven’t seen this one either, but the buzz around it is palpable. Not to mention that Mike Leigh is a five-time nominee in this category who has never won. His career has often been spent in search of nuggets of deep empathy within a slice of British life. Hard Truths seems to be in that same mold and just as powerful as Leigh’s previous works.
A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg) – Like its title, A Real Pain, has multiple meanings and layers. It’s about generational trauma. It’s about grief, depression, and the complicated nature of a person who refuses to change. The script is smart, funny, affecting, and satisfying from beginning to end. Jesse Eisenberg has graduated from an immature sad boy to a mature sad man.
The Substance (Coralie Fargeat) – There is momentum to the campaign of The Substance. With a few high-profile nominations, this terrifically grotesque body horror film that seeks to make you empathize with an aging woman’s struggles to regain the power she had in her youth is clicking in every way it was meant to. The script is devious and plays with so many ideas. There is a biting, bitter truth behind Coralie Fargeat’s satire. She balances the horrors, both real and psychological, with absolute precision.
Even though I feel as if I have five very strong contenders, there is so much room for a different nominee to sneak in. I could write about every worthy script from 2024. I could speculate wildly, as there were some truly excellent scripts that will be left behind. Yet, your attention span and my dictionary of superlatives are short. I have narrowed it down to a handful with the most potential.
Babygirl (Halina Reijn) – Babygirl is more than just a very strong central performance. There is a mood and a calculated plot that oozes from Halina Reijn’s script. She moves her characters and builds her plot so expertly. Her script also does a much better job than a certain mass appeal series at detailing what a consensual and mutually gratifying S&M sexual relationship can look like.
Challengers (Justin Kuritzkes) – Justin Kuritzkes’ script is such a dream. Multiple mind games, incredible plot progression, and biting, aching dialogue. It’s a script that’s tight and keeps you guessing at that utterly perfect ending.
September 5 (Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David) – This is another one I have not been given the opportunity to see, but has a palpable buzz. When it has shown up at precursors there have been strong supporters of its script. There’s also a precedent as the Academy loves a film about journalism.
