The Oscar race’s precursor phase is generally thought to kick off once the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC), Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA), National Board of Review (NBR), and a host of other groups announce their annual awards in the first days of December.
However, it’s arguably already underway in mid-November by the time actual members of the voting bodies whose preferences we spend one-third of the year trying to discern are gathering in Toruń, Poland for the EnergaCAMERIMAGE Film Festival. The event provides a small but substantive survey of how industry craftspeople, particularly cinematographers affiliated with the academy and BAFTA (and by extension the American and British Societies of Cinematographers [ASC and BSC]), feel about a given season’s crop of below-the-line hopefuls. Though the festival’s top prizes (the Golden, Silver, and Bronze Frogs) have gone to some extremely niche titles over the years—has any non-festival-goer heard of, much less seen, The New Boy?—Camerimage has a solid record of setting films that fly under most prognosticators’ radars (either because they are too far removed from the conversation or because they are seen as acting/writing showcases rather than technical achievements) on a path toward Oscar nominations for Best Cinematography.
Because the branch isn’t averse to going outside the box, the three top-placing films at Camerimage don’t always need a buzzy profile or high nomination ceiling to enter the race. A year ago, El Conde’s surprise ASC mention was preceded by a Silver Frog win in Toruń. Tár placed first the year before that prior to making an unexpected showing at the Oscars. However, that film was a firm Picture/Director contender and got DP Florian Hoffmeister nominated by Critics’ Choice and BSC despite missing ASC’s lineup. The example from 2022 that makes a stronger case for the Polish festival’s relevance is Bardo, which won the Bronze Frog before quietly upsetting The Fabelmans and Avatar: The Way of Water for an ASC nomination and eventually competing at the Oscars solely in Best Cinematography.
This year’s Golden Frog was awarded to The Girl with the Needle, Denmark’s submission for the Best International Feature Oscar. Silver and Bronze went to The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez, respectively. Led by Cate Blanchett, the jury included academy members Jolanta Dylewska (Tulpan), Łukasz Żal (The Zone of Interest), Anthony Dod Mantle (Slumdog Millionaire) and Rodrigo Prieto (Killers of the Flower Moon). Mantle and Prieto are also accredited with ASC.
Two of three Frog recipients have regularly gotten Best Cinematography nominations since 2021. Some of those, like Dune and Poor Things, were always going to have a sizable below-the-line presence, just like The Brutalist is poised to have this year. The Silver Frog win in Toruń is just one of many prizes DP Lol Crawley will likely pick up throughout the season. His only major challenger for the Oscar at the moment seems to be Maria’s Ed Lachman, who would become only the second winner for a non-Picture-nominee in 18 years. For The Girl with the Needle and Emilia Pérez, on the other hand, placing at EnergaCAMERIMAGE is a major boost to their odds of joining ASC’s lineup and, subsequently, The Academy’s.
A spooky black-and-white international arthouse drama, The Girl with the Needle easily lends itself to comparisons with El Conde, while Emilia Pérez has the kinetic camerawork of Bardo and, like Tár, is a probable Best Picture player with an outside shot at a few tech nominations. Prior to the festival, the two films had been floating right outside the bubble along with Anora, Nosferatu, Blitz, and The Substance (the only two locks are currently The Brutalist and Maria). However, Camerimage’s endorsement puts them in direct contention for slots in the final five with Dune: Part Two (which, like Avatar: The Way of Water, is a sequel to a film that won Best Cinematography), Conclave (a movie with lots of great-looking marble that is nevertheless a talky chamber piece), and Nickel Boys (which is more experimentally shot than The Zone of Interest, and that movie couldn’t nab either an ASC or an Oscar nomination despite across-the-board support and Łukasz Żal’s previous recognition).
If they make the cut, this season will mark the first time that all three Frog recipients have secured corresponding Best Cinematography nominations (in the same year) and cement Camerimage as a bonafide Oscar bellwether.
