It seemed for a while there (pre-pandemic) that superhero films were building to something. It seemed a sort of legitimacy was developing within critic’s groups and awards circuits as the genre ballooned and evolved. Then the whispers became an out loud conversation as Deadpool (2016) cracked into Best Motion Picture Musical or Comedy and Best Actor in a Motion Picture Musical or Comedy for Ryan Reynolds at the Golden Globes.
The following year found Logan (2017) placed in the middle of the Best Adapted Screenplay nominees. The year after that, Black Panther (2018) shattered the glass ceiling, being nominated for seven Oscars, including Best Picture, and winning three (Score, Costume Design, and Production Design). Then Joker (2019) laughed its way to eleven Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, Director and Actor, and winning two (Score and Actor).
It seemed like the time for ignoring superhero films as merely paltry entertainment was over. The legitimacy of capes and cowls had arrived at last. With rumors of the next great auteur filmmaker, Chloé Zhao, taking on an obscure and mythology-heavy superhero team, the Eternals, for Marvel, it seemed as if we would be treated to a lauded and praised superhero film at least once a year. It wasn’t to be, though.
After the smashing successes of the climactic end to the Infinity Saga and a disastrous campaign to salvage the bad press of the Justice League film, Marvel and DC entered a slump. Would they have stayed in a slump if a global pandemic hadn’t shut down movie theaters and film production? Absolutely. The majority of the blockbuster slate of films for the year 2020 and a few slated for 2021 were completed by the time the shutdowns occurred. It was too late, and the fatigue had mounted. The majority of superhero films that followed into 2022 and 2023 couldn’t capture the old magic. They made millions, sometimes hundreds of millions, of course, but lost fans, box office dominance, and the goodwill of the critics.
So with a titanic shift in Marvel’s strategy, a dissolution of the shared universe hopes of the DCEU, Sony grasping at their thinning web of influence in the Spider-Man adjacent universe, and the extended production shutdowns because of the writers and actors strikes of 2023, we entered 2024 with fewer superhero titles than in many years. It’s unlikely that this year’s crop will have any hope come Oscars time, except maybe crammed into the Visual Effects category.
If Deadpool & Wolverine had tried to claw a modicum of its autonomy from the snowballing juggernaut that is the MCU, it could have had a chance. The two characters have already had their brushes with glory, but corporate synergy masquerading as a plot does not make a great film. The ego trip masquerading as charm Ryan Reynolds puts onto the screen is also wearing very thin.
So, too big swings toward genre mashups fail when neither is committed wholeheartedly. Even if you don’t like the original Joker (this writer is included in that category), the seamlessness of translating a comic book villain to a crime drama made a great deal of sense. Translating the same villain into a musical fever dream? Not so much. Maybe Joker: Folie á Deux just didn’t swing hard enough, or the Venn diagram of people who like dark and moody superhero films and those who like musicals is far too thin a margin to build a major release on.
Though they’re in a slump now, the absolute glut of superhero franchise films hitting screens in 2025 may rebuild the momentum the genre has lost in the awards sphere. It’s very unlikely as they have built their empire to run only on the level of appeal that can’t be described as massive but more like total. It would be better if they took a tough look at their properties and tried to make better and more inventive films, but money talks louder than art, and superheroes will always have a one-in-five chance at the Visual Effects category.
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The festivals and end-of-year rush to the screen have thrown the Best Picture race into chaos or at least sloughed off my greatest hopes for my summer favorites to break through. So, from the last column to this one, there is a rather grand shift of films. Only three titles from the previous column remain as the field narrows weekend by weekend and as precursor awards begin their deliberations and announcements.
This is a curated list of possible nominees amongst the films that have been theatrically released. It’s fun to speculate on what may be coming later in the year, but I’ll focus only on what has had its widest possible release at the time of publication. The list will evolve as we get closer to show time. The list will be split into three categories.
The first category will be called “Safe Bet.” These films are the most likely to carry through the season and into the list of Oscar nominees. The next category will be called “Strong Potential.” These films have something going for them but may not have enough momentum to last the season. The final category will be called “Hopeful.” These are films that I want to highlight as worthy contenders that are likely to be ignored.
Here’s where I see the Best Picture field at this point.
Safe Bet
- Anora
- Challengers
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Sing Sing
Strong Potential
- The Substance
- The Apprentice
Hopeful
- A Different Man
- We Live in Time
- Saturday Night
