Pundits handicap Oscar nominations on a spectrum between activism and dispassionate observation. Even those who typically lean toward the latter pole will occasionally (when wading through the uncertainties of a category’s bottom slots) give the edge to a film or performance they personally enjoy over one that presents formidably on paper. Colman Domingo, for example, had all the requisite precursor nods for Rustin heading into nominations morning. Still, plenty of awards enthusiasts went out on a limb and predicted that Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers) or Zac Efron (The Iron Claw) would end up 2023’s fifth Leading Actor contender. These were expressions of faith in voters’ adventurism rather than attempts to actually shape the race. After all, Scott and Efron were part of the conversation for films that were conceivably within reach of a nomination before anyone started overestimating their chances. Anointing contenders has traditionally been a task performed by festival programmers and regional critics associations. Some of that influence has been democratized; the historic performance of Everything Everywhere All at Once has understandably conditioned us to be on the lookout for unconventional, internet-backed passion picks. This year, however, good-natured “hopedicting” has been replaced by a call-to-action style of punditry for which the success or failure of September 5 and The Substance will prove a critical test.
A dramatization of the hostage crisis that unfolded during the 1972 Munich Olympics, September 5 was virtually unheard of until Hollywood Reporter Oscar columnist Scott Feinberg single-handedly jumpstarted the film’s campaign by placing it in his Best Picture predictions (at the very top, no less). Was Feinberg reading the tea leaves or shrewdly canvassing on behalf of a movie he personally favors? American Fiction crashed the race a year ago as a festival breakout, but the eventual Best Picture nominee and Adapted Screenplay winner first claimed the TIFF People’s Choice Award; Drive My Car won a slew of prizes from critics before anyone took it seriously as an Oscar contender. Tim Fehlbaum’s historical drama, on the other hand, played the festival circuit with zero profile until THR’s chief awards pundit made the online film world collectively go, “What the hell is September 5?” That anonymity has played to the film’s advantage by positioning it as one of the season’s few word-of-mouth discoveries (despite, of course, its candidacy having been manufactured by a top industry trade). Now that September 5 is part of the mix—and placeholders like Blitz and Saturday Night are rapidly sliding down the ranks—nominations for Picture, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, and Editing are all in play. Will the film rack up nods like Argo and Spotlight, have a modest showing like The Post, or get ignored entirely like She Said? Though we’re still awaiting word on several latecomers, including a Bob Dylan biopic, September 5 is this season’s real complete unknown.
The journalistic thriller may not have pedigree on its side, but it at least fits the mold of an awards contender. The same cannot be said of this season’s other major dark horse, Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance.
Until recently, most pundits refused to even entertain the possibility of Robert Eggers scoring a Best Director nomination for his Nosferatu remake (despite its origin in one of cinema’s oldest IPs). “They’re not going to nominate a horror movie.” Those voices have dramatically changed their tune for not just a horror movie, but one of the grossest horror movies since David Cronenberg’s The Fly. That the academy declined to even shortlist Julia Ducournau’s Palme-winning Titane for Best International Feature only a few years ago hasn’t staunched the tsunami of genuine passion backing The Substance. Bolstering the film’s chances are Demi Moore’s status of being overdue, a lack of viable options directed by women, and a political climate not dissimilar to the one in which Get Out became an unlikely awards darling. Whereas that film was released only a few months after a contentious election that primarily focused on race, Fargeat’s feminist body horror overtook the zeitgeist during a political cycle that drew battle lines along women’s rights. Could the symbol of a gender-centric rebuke to a second Trump term really be Monstro ElisaSue?
Perhaps, but there’s little reason to believe voters would ever naturally gravitate toward a viscerally repulsive option like The Substance. The film’s participation in this season’s awards derby is owed entirely to online stans who fashioned a Hail Mary bid for Makeup & Hairstyling into a full-fledged campaign. In addition to Makeup & Hairstyling, The Substance is currently competitive for nominations in Picture, Actress, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, and Sound. The film’s most optimistic proponents envision a package that even includes Cinematography, Production Design, and Supporting Actress. The conditions for such an anomaly are highly specific, but Twitter will nevertheless hopedict races from now on with renewed zeal if The Substance indeed becomes a major Oscar contender.
Though very different from each other and endorsed by very different corners of film discourse, The Substance and September 5 will reveal just how much of awards season is a game of self-fulfilling prophecies. Should their underdog campaigns reap success, expect to see more pundits in the future prognosticating the Oscars with their hearts rather than heads.
