With the end of the 2024 fall festival season comes a much clearer look into the Best Director awards race. Some serious contenders have emerged, while other strong showings from the spring and summer have faded into the background. Let’s look at who still has an outside shot, who’s on the bubble, and who the strongest contenders are as we hurdle toward the year’s end.
Dark Horse Candidates
Mike Leigh, Hard Truths
Mike Leigh’s latest offering features a reunion between the director and actress Marianne Jean-Baptiste as a mother navigating a difficult relationship with her husband and son. Most of the praise has come for Jean-Baptiste’s hilarious and devastating performance, but there’s always an outside chance that momentum could pick up for the beloved director. At 81 years old, Leigh has garnered seven Academy Award nominations, with two being for Best Director. This could be his last film, and with enough support, it could push him to a nomination. Given the lack of acclaim for anything outside Jean-Baptiste and the screenplay, it does seem like a stretch to put him anywhere near the top 10 contenders, but it’s worth noting his previous success with awards voters.
Luca Guadagnino, Challengers
Guadagnino’s first entry for 2024, Challengers, has come out ahead of his other feature Queer, which made its way through the festival circuit earlier this year. The latter is much more meditative and supernatural at times, making it a tougher sell to awards voters. Simply put, Queer is just a little too out there, even for this iteration of the Academy. Despite this, support for Guadagnino and his contributions to film in 2024 could be directed towards a nomination for Challengers, signaling more of an overarching appreciation for the director himself rather than either of the films on their own. There’s a lot to love about both of his features this year, and the range he shows throughout each of them is a testament to his skill and eye for extraordinary filmmaking. As of now, it seems more likely that Challengers could sneak into Best Picture or Best Original Screenplay with a very small chance that he could break through in Director. On its best day, Challengers would only get these three nominations, with Queer catching an acting nomination for Daniel Craig. I don’t quite see this happening but don’t be surprised to see his name called if other directors lose steam down the line.
Jon M. Chu, Wicked Part One
I know it must be jarring to see this film with the “Part One” tag added on. Despite the marketing and runtime that is longer than the musical it’s based on (not including intermission) Wicked is indeed a part one. Despite my skepticism of this adaptation, very early reports are indicating that it might actually be good. Like, really good. This is all anecdotal, of course, but if Chu and the team could pull off a critically successful adaptation of a beloved musical, Wicked just might come out of nowhere and crash the Oscars. We already know the box office support will be behind it, which could propel it to several nominations. Similar to some other films, Wicked’s best nomination package includes a Director nomination for Jon Chu. Imagine the coordination and vision required to make a spectacle like this happen. This is still not quite at the top of my predictions, but I firmly believe the path is there for Chu and several other folks involved in this production.
On The Bubble
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
MUBI’s box office darling, The Substance, keeps plugging along in theaters despite releasing two months ago, which feels like an eternity in today’s theatrical window. Working off of a $17.5 million budget, it has picked up over $50 million worldwide in its theatrical run. The Substance is big, loud, and bold, with a lot of attention being directed at Demi Moore and Coralie Fargeat. Regrettably, it does appear that Fargeat is our only hope of having a non-male director in the category this time around, but she does seem to be gaining some momentum. Fargeat is more than deserving of the recognition, and seeing multiple nominations for this film would be a welcome shake-up of what kinds of films typically get nominated by the Academy. Hopefully, MUBI can put together a strong campaign for Moore, Fargeat, and some of the technical awards like Makeup and Hairstyling or Costumes and break the mold of the classical “Oscar movie” in the process.
Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
Greg Kwedar’s understated yet effective direction in Sing Sing is truly a work of art, and he is more than deserving of a spot in the nomination lineup this year. Unfortunately for him, A24’s rollout and campaign for the film as a whole has been elusive and confusing. Almost everyone who has seen Sing Sing loves it, but that number is definitely less than ideal. With the strategy thus far, Kwedar’s campaign is likely one of the first to fall off compared to the Best Picture and acting categories but is likely to have a strong push as we get closer to nomination day. A24 has stretched itself a little thin with the acquisitions of The Brutalist and Queer, both films that have aspirations of making a splash this awards season. I still think Kwedar’s work is strong enough to find a way in when it’s all said and done, but the road to a nomination narrows as each day goes by.
Edward Berger, Conclave
Papal shenanigans abound in Edward Berger’s follow-up to his critically acclaimed adaptation of All Quiet on the Western Front, a film that propelled him to a level of prestige and acclaim that had all eyes looking forward to his next project. Conclave continues the pattern of absolute technical mastery, utilizing amazing production design, camera work, and score to bring a lot of weight to an adaptation of an airport thriller. Berger gets amazing performances out of his main cast and has crafted a very approachable, crowd-pleasing film that could line up a lot of nominations. Berger’s odds of earning a second best director nomination are pretty high just two weeks after its wide release, but I still have him outside my top five. There’s something missing from Conclave that’s hard to put words to, but it’s more likely that the crafts and performances get recognized without Berger joining in the fun.
RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
In a just world, RaMell Ross would be squarely in the top three of this race, with Nickel Boys being an absolute stroke of genius that only he could produce. Ross’ first foray into narrative feature follows a young black teenager throughout his life after being sent to a juvenile detention camp in Florida for being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Nickel Boys is powerful and its message is potent. Ross’s direction style could not be more singular than in this film, with camera techniques and narrative choices that do much more than just bring the Colson Whitehead novel to the big screen. This is one of the most incredible achievements by a director this century, and it may fall short of recognition for its headiness and unique perspective. Some may call it pretentious, but it’s impossible to deny Ross’s amazing work with this film. As it positions itself for a late December wide release, there’s an opportunity for Ross to pick up steam at the end of the race.
Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
The hardest cut from my top five is Mohammad Rasoulof for his work on The Seed of the Sacred Fig. The film follows a family in Tehran led by a man who works as an investigating judge for the country’s corrupt court system in the midst of social and political unrest. The risks that Rousalof took to make this film should be worthy of garnering him a nomination. They had to film secretly every few days just to finish the film, and he has since been exiled as an enemy of the state. This film simply wouldn’t exist without his efforts and creative mind, and the narrative he puts forward has a sense of urgency that none of the other contenders gets relatively close to. His ability to get global themes across through the lens of a more contained family drama is truly amazing. Despite everything going for it, there might be stronger domestic narratives outside the film’s control that keep it at bay. Most predictors have Rasoulof between four and nine on their Best Director lists, and I’m not sure what the hesitancy is here. I’m hopeful that people are underestimating the international shift the Academy has made over the past few years, and Rasoulof can ultimately find himself rewarded for his work.
Strongest Contenders
Sean Baker, Anora
So far, Anora seems unstoppable. From its Palme d’Or victory at Cannes to its rapturous response at the fall festivals, Sean Baker appears to have burst through with this film. Baker’s one-of-a-kind sensibilities and repeated highlighting of sex workers have kept most of his films out of the awards conversation. Still, there’s something about Anora that’s captured audiences of all kinds over the past six months. He proved he could deliver the same level of greatness with a higher budget. I don’t think this is his strongest directorial outing, but the overwhelming support for the film will likely be enough to land him a nomination.
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
It’s official: the Gladiator II hype train is welcoming passengers aboard, and I bought a first-class ticket. Scott’s late work has certainly had mixed reviews, but there’s been a lot of good in these otherwise flawed films. Early reactions indicate a potential return to form for Scott, which could pave the way to his fourth Best Director nomination. If Gladiator II proves to be a cinematic spectacle like its predecessor, a lot of below-the-line support and a lifetime of goodwill for Ridley Scott will lead to double-digit nominations for the film. An important piece of the puzzle here is that Denzel Washington has been getting a lot of predictions for Best Supporting Actor, even more than Scott for Director. Audiences are taking the movie seriously, which was one of the big questions heading into its release.
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
Having been the first real contender of the year, you’d think that Villeneuve would have fallen out of the race a long time ago as more films get seen. Yet, here we are. The support for Dune: Part II and his direction has stayed surprisingly strong, weathering every storm that’s come its way. This may have as much to do with the strategies of other campaigns as it does with Dune’s success. Films that think they have a strong chance at winning Best Picture have been hesitant to take too strong a lead early in the year, not wanting to lose steam along the long road to Oscars night. This has left Dune as the frontrunner in several categories, even this late in the year. I simply can’t fathom Villeneuve being left out at this point. Of course, things may shift as more releases come, but the strong indications are that he will receive his second Best Director nomination.
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez
As Jacques Audiard’s French-produced, Spanish-spoken musical Emilia Perez continues to dazzle audiences in its festival world tour, it’s becoming abundantly clear that Audiard is one of the top competitors for Best Director. He’s been a staple of French cinema since the 1970s and has finally made a film receiving wide international acclaim. It will be interesting to see how it’s received upon its wider release, but it keeps picking up strong supporters at every stop. Audiard’s vision is bold and audacious and provides strong performances from Zoe Saldaña and Karla Sofía Gascón. There has been a strong reception to the film itself as well as the musical numbers featuring many Best Original Song contenders. As we’ve seen over the past few years, at least one of the Best Director nominees winds up coming from an international film, and Audiard is most likely to be the representative this go around.
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
The Brutalist, much like Oppenheimer, seems undeniable on many fronts. It’s not so much that it’s dominating every category like Oppenheimer, but more that it is a masterpiece and an outstanding achievement by the director. Corbet’s fingerprints can be seen in every frame of the 3.5-hour runtime. The scale, craftsmanship, and performances are difficult to ignore, even if some plot points might not sit right with everyone in the third act. It’s difficult to describe The Brutalist’s successes to those who haven’t seen it yet. It’s slow, but not boring. It’s meticulous, but riveting at every turn. I was on the edge of my seat watching two men discuss brutalist architecture for minutes at a time. Corbet is a lock to make the field for Best Director, and I think he will be difficult to unseat at the top of the pile.
There’s still about five months to go until the Academy Awards, and momentum shifts for all these films are bound to happen. The shortlist has certainly gotten shorter over the past couple of months, but the films discussed above are built for the long haul of awards season. Be sure to check out each of these films as they become available so you can follow along with the race and be outraged on nomination day like the rest of us.
